http://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/2 ... /22751683/
Seahawks' 'dumbest play ever' has some defenders
Steve Schrader, Detroit Free Press 4:36 p.m. EST February 2, 2015
To recap: With 20 seconds left Sunday night, the Seattle Seahawks opted to try a pass play from the 1-yard line, instead of, say, giving the ball to Marshawn Lynch and letting him ram it home for the winning touchdown in Super Bowl XLIX.
Boom! It's intercepted, and the New England Patriots win, 28-24.
We're all agreed, then, that was the dumbest play call in Super Bowl history.
Not so fast.
There are some pundits out there — especially the numbers guys — who aren't ripping Seahawks coach Pete Carroll for the call (or whoever was responsible for it).
Such as:
• Andy Benoit, themmqb.com: "It's easy to question the play calling after a goal-line interception. But if Russell Wilson had completed the quick slant to Ricardo Lockette, people would have lauded Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell for having the guts to throw when everyone was expecting run.
"Keep in mind, Bevell has limited resources. None of Seattle's wide receivers can consistently separate from man coverage, and their quarterback, great as he is on extended plays, can't make many throws from the pocket. That makes things tough on an offensive coordinator."
• Bevell, by the way, said the call was made with the clock in mind: "We were conscious of how much time was on the clock, and we wanted to use it all. It didn't turn out the way I hoped it would."
• Benjamin Morris of Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com can see his logic: "Sounds crazy, but he's right: With 26 seconds left and only one timeout, the Seahawks couldn't run Lynch three times in a row. If they rushed on second down, didn't make it in, called timeout, rushed again, and still didn't make it in, they'd probably be out of time before they could get off another play. So, the Seahawks had three downs to work with, but they could only run Lynch twice at most."
• ESPN Stats & Information asks: "Was it the worst play call in Super Bowl history, as some contend, or was it a smart decision with poor execution?" It's true, ESPN says, over the past five seasons that rushing for a TD from the 1 is slightly more successful that passing, but especially if it's run twice.
But ESPN also says that of 109 passes from the 1 in the NFL this season, Russell Wilson's was the first intercepted, so it's not a risky play. And over the past five seasons, Lynch has had a 45% success rate from the 1, which is 30th among running backs with at least 10 tries.
• And Neil Greenberg, Washington Post, points out that "the Seahawks found themselves in a similar position (down by six points or less, 30 seconds left in the fourth quarter, second down and goal to go) just twice before in the past two years. They ran it both times but didn't score a touchdown on either play."
That's a small sample size, but he continues: "If we look at all downs in those goal-to-go situations over the past two years, the Seahawks have almost an even split between the run and pass, as do the other teams in the league, on average. In fact, no team ran the ball exclusively in those situations, so a pass was going to happen on this series at some point to keep the defense honest."
But the result — hence the play — still looked pretty bad to the naked eye.
It was a surprise call, very much in character for this team. Except that Butler was not surprised. He was in the moment, and he jumped all over the route.• And Neil Greenberg, Washington Post, points out that "the Seahawks found themselves in a similar position (down by six points or less, 30 seconds left in the fourth quarter, second down and goal to go) just twice before in the past two years. They ran it both times but didn't score a touchdown on either play."
There was consideration for getting the maximum number of carries from Lynch strategically at the goalline, with the little time left.
My read: If you have a guy on the field, you expect him to make plays. If Lockette can't get after that ball, he should not be in the game. It seems to me that the Hawks have come nowhere near close to building their receiving corps, as they have other parts of their roster. This is the receiving corps that they have. Maybe it is a surprise that they got this far with them. If you cannot go to a guy on the field, you have notable weaknesses in your personnel.
Not a great call, with Lockette as the primary. Many pro receivers would have had that throw easy as pie, it seems to me. Get position. Block out the defender. Explode into your route. And, if Wilson gets rid of it quicker, or throws it lower, or throws it more at Lockette's hip ...
A play, and a call, worthy of review? Absolutely.