2023-24 NFL/Seahawks Season Thread
Posted: Wed Jul 26, 2023 1:06 pm
To carry on with Robbie's thread from last season re the NFL and Seattle Seahawks, let's look at what's in store this coming season now that training camps have opened across the NFL.
You'll recall that, at this time last year, things looked pretty dismal for the Seahawks, with Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner gone, and the expectation for the season was something in the realm of 4-5 wins in the 17-game schedule. I think it's safe to say that things look decidedly better at this point after the 'Hawks surprising 9-8 season in 2022 and the addition of some terrific-looking rookies via the 2023 draft. Let me lay out some information and predictions about the team going forward.
1. Additions to the offense and the outlook for 2023. At the skill positions, the Seahawks added via the 2023 draft (a) 1st-round pick WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (regarded as the top receiver in the entire draft) to play primarily in the slot and freeing things up for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett outside, and (b) 2nd-round pick RB Zach Charbonnet to add size and power to an already strong backfield alongside last-year's rookie sensation Kenneth Walker.
On the O-line, both rookie tackles from last year, Charles Cross and Abe Lucas, who played pretty well last season, are expected to be improved after a year in the NFL. They’ve added two new centers to the competition after last year’s center, Austin Blythe, retired—Evan Brown, who started with Detroit last season and rookie 5th round draft pick Olu Oluwatimi, who won both the Outland Trophy (outstanding interior lineman) and the Rimington Trophy (outstanding center) in college football last season with Michigan. In addition, they’ve added rookie 4th-round draft pick OL Anthony Bradford, a 345-lb. mauler, who will compete with Phil Haynes for the right guard position. The main weakness in the 2022 O-line was the interior, and this is where much improvement will need to take place.
The outlook for this year’s Seahawks offense is pretty favorable. They ranked 13th overall in offense in the NFL last season, and the expectation is that they will improve on that ranking in 2023. This will depend, of course, on whether QB Geno Smith can return to his high-level of play from last year and whether what was a poor showing from last season’s O-line (which always seems to be a weakness with the ‘Hawks) can be brought up to at least an average ranking in 2023. Some pundits are predicting a top-5 year for the 2023 Seahawks offense, although that definitely seems overly-optimistic to me, and I’d be happy with a top-10 finish.
2. Additions to the defense and the outlook for 2023. The defense was the major weakness on the 2022 edition of the Seahawks, ranking 26th overall among NFL teams, and it doesn’t look all that much better going into 2023. Added in the draft (with the 1st round 5th overall pick) is the top-rated corner from the college ranks in Devon Witherspoon, and also, in free agency, former New York Giants safety Julian Love. These additions should propel the Seahawks’ secondary into (or close to) the top tier by adding strength to an already-strong unit from last season. With star safety Jamal Adams expected back from injury (at some point in the season, but not necessarily in Week 1) at strong safety or hybrid safety/linebacker, the ‘Hawks could have arguably both a top-5 CB tandem and a top-5 safety group, and so they should be strong against the pass. I believe that we'll see a lot of 3-safety looks in the secondary, and there is good flexibility in this CB/Safety group--with several CBs fully capable of playing safety (Coby Bryant being perhaps the best example as he can switch between nickel corner and strong safety) and vice versa. I think we'll see some innovative deployments in the 'Hawks' secondary in 2023.
Although the Seahawks have brought back Bobby Wagner and added another linebacker from the Steelers, Devin Bush, they remain questionable in their run-stopping capability. They’re probably stronger at off-ball linebacker, and, as of 8/26/23, they've got back from serious knee surgery ILB Jordyn Brooks, a tackling machine that has led the team in tackles in the past. This likely means that Wagner and Brooks will be the starters at ILB, with Bush rotating in.
On the outside, they’ve added (from the 2nd round of the draft) Derick Hall, who should strengthen the pass rush, with Hall (or, more likely, Darrell Taylor or 2022 2nd-round pick Boye Mafe) playing opposite Uchenna Nwosu, last season’s best Seahawks edge rusher. So some improvement in the pass rush appears possible.
Where the Seahawks defense looks weakest is the D-line, (or perhaps more precisely the front seven) which was very poor last season, giving up a lot of yards against the run (where they were 30th out of 32, giving up an average of 151.9 yds./game). Looking at this year’s additions doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in much improvement in that area, although bringing back Bobby Wagner after his one year with the Rams should help. They’ve added one outstanding D-lineman, Dre'Mont Jones (from the Broncos), brought back Jarran Reed, and added another D-lineman, Mario Edwards Jr., all in free agency, and have added a couple more from the draft, Cameron Young and Mike Morris. There remains concern about the team’s strength at nose tackle, a key piece in any 3-4 defense, which is what the ‘Hawks will be running again in 2023. This will be Clint Hurtt's second season as DC and the second running a 3-4 scheme, and the hope is that with a year in this alignment behind them, the 'Hawks will be better.
Edit (8/3/23). It looks as if the Seahawks are now leaning towards playing Jarran Reed at NT--this after a week and a half of training camp. This will be a new position for Reed, as he's been a 3-tech previously with the Seahawks and last season with the Packers. We'll see if another interior D-lineman is brought in before the beginning of the regular season.
Edit (8/29/23). This hasn't happened, much to the disappointment of the rabid Seahawks fans (the "12"s). I had expected a trade to have been made by now to strengthen the interior D-line. Perhaps John Schneider and Pete Carroll are hoping to pick up someone from the other teams' cuts with the 53-man initial rosters having to be established today (8/29).
All things considered, the Seahawks D doesn’t look like a strength for 2023. With their strong secondary and with possible improvement from the edge rushers, they could be harder to pass against than they were last year (and they weren’t too bad in that area in 2022). However, the inability to stop the run (at which they were really terrible last season) will likely continue to at least some extent. Overall, it seems likely that the defense may improve a little from their 26th overall rank in 2022, and at the very best they may make it into the top half of the league in defense.
3. Special Teams. The Seahawks have real strength in this part of the game, with two of the best kickers in the NFL. Place kicker Jason Myers is a top-3 FG kicker (and is in the top three kickers re salary) with Pro Bowl credentials. Punter Michael Dickson has also made the Pro Bowl and has been an All-Pro. His towering punts have often flipped the field for the 'Hawks, and he is among the best in the NFL at pinning opponents inside their 20-yard line. As for punt and kickoff returners, this is not completely settled yet, although at this point it looks as if DeeJay Dallas will likely continue to perform in that role. In the past, several players have alternated at this task,
4. Coaching. This is a little harder to evaluate with much precision. On offense, OC Shane Waldron is entering his third year with the team, coming to the 'Hawks from the Rams where he had been Passing Game Coordinator. He has been given credit for helping Geno Smith have a Pro Bowl season in 2022, and so, although quite young, he may be one of the better OCs in the NFL. Will he be able to raise the overall offensive efficiency--with some new weapons--in 2023? Time will tell. On defense, DC Clint Hurtt is going into his second year in that role, having been promoted from Defensive Line Coach when Ken Norton, Jr. was fired as DC two years ago. Although the defense was poor in 2022, I haven't seen this universally attributed to Hurtt. As noted above, he installed a 3-4 front for the first time last season, and it's possible that the team wasn't quite ready for it. The team should be more-fully acclimated to it this season. So, at this point, the jury's out on Hurtt.
As for Head Coach, it's hard to find much wrong with Pete Carroll's performance in that role with the 'Hawks. There has been the occasional complaint about some of his in-game decisions, but, on the whole, he is regarded as one of the top HCs in the NFL (a recent poll had him at #5). The team's overall performance over the past decade has been outstanding, and much of this should, I think, be attributed to Carroll's ability to energize and inspire his players and his ability to build a very positive and competition-oriented culture around the team. He has done well over the years at getting his guys playing at a higher level than what others had expected and is the epitome of a "players' coach."
5. Overall Prospects for the Seahawks in 2023. The Seahawks went 9-8 in 2022, and the expectation among many pundits is that they should be a little stronger this season and able to do as well in 2023. It's probably worth pointing out that the 'Hawks are one of the youngest teams in the NFL and will have many players in 2023 who are either rookies or in their second year. To be more precise, 45 percent of Seattle's active roster consists of rookies or second-year players. One current pre-season prediction of expected wins in the 17-game season for the 32 NFL teams has the Seahawks at 8.5 wins, placing them at 6th or 7th in the NFC. I’d guess that they will end up somewhere in the 8-9 to 10-7 range, although if Geno Smith continues to shine at QB, they could go a little higher. The general consensus among most football writers is that the Seahawks will end up 2nd in the NFC- West, below the 49ers and above the Rams (expected to be 3rd) and the Cardinals, who appear to be planning to tank. With the NFC now clearly weaker than the AFC, this might mean a reasonably high finish relative to the other NFC teams and a playoff spot. Of course, injuries and other unexpected factors will affect everything, but, ignoring that, at this point a decent season seems a realistic possibility for the Seahawks, and the chances are likely a little better than 50-50 that they'll make the playoffs in the NFC. For what it's worth (probably not much at this point), FanDuel places the Seahawks' chances to make the playoffs at 54.95%.
The real strength in the NFL now lies in the AFC, with the Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, Ravens, and possibly the Jets, Dolphins, and Chargers ahead of most NFC teams. In the NFC, the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys are the class of the conference.
You'll recall that, at this time last year, things looked pretty dismal for the Seahawks, with Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner gone, and the expectation for the season was something in the realm of 4-5 wins in the 17-game schedule. I think it's safe to say that things look decidedly better at this point after the 'Hawks surprising 9-8 season in 2022 and the addition of some terrific-looking rookies via the 2023 draft. Let me lay out some information and predictions about the team going forward.
1. Additions to the offense and the outlook for 2023. At the skill positions, the Seahawks added via the 2023 draft (a) 1st-round pick WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (regarded as the top receiver in the entire draft) to play primarily in the slot and freeing things up for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett outside, and (b) 2nd-round pick RB Zach Charbonnet to add size and power to an already strong backfield alongside last-year's rookie sensation Kenneth Walker.
On the O-line, both rookie tackles from last year, Charles Cross and Abe Lucas, who played pretty well last season, are expected to be improved after a year in the NFL. They’ve added two new centers to the competition after last year’s center, Austin Blythe, retired—Evan Brown, who started with Detroit last season and rookie 5th round draft pick Olu Oluwatimi, who won both the Outland Trophy (outstanding interior lineman) and the Rimington Trophy (outstanding center) in college football last season with Michigan. In addition, they’ve added rookie 4th-round draft pick OL Anthony Bradford, a 345-lb. mauler, who will compete with Phil Haynes for the right guard position. The main weakness in the 2022 O-line was the interior, and this is where much improvement will need to take place.
The outlook for this year’s Seahawks offense is pretty favorable. They ranked 13th overall in offense in the NFL last season, and the expectation is that they will improve on that ranking in 2023. This will depend, of course, on whether QB Geno Smith can return to his high-level of play from last year and whether what was a poor showing from last season’s O-line (which always seems to be a weakness with the ‘Hawks) can be brought up to at least an average ranking in 2023. Some pundits are predicting a top-5 year for the 2023 Seahawks offense, although that definitely seems overly-optimistic to me, and I’d be happy with a top-10 finish.
2. Additions to the defense and the outlook for 2023. The defense was the major weakness on the 2022 edition of the Seahawks, ranking 26th overall among NFL teams, and it doesn’t look all that much better going into 2023. Added in the draft (with the 1st round 5th overall pick) is the top-rated corner from the college ranks in Devon Witherspoon, and also, in free agency, former New York Giants safety Julian Love. These additions should propel the Seahawks’ secondary into (or close to) the top tier by adding strength to an already-strong unit from last season. With star safety Jamal Adams expected back from injury (at some point in the season, but not necessarily in Week 1) at strong safety or hybrid safety/linebacker, the ‘Hawks could have arguably both a top-5 CB tandem and a top-5 safety group, and so they should be strong against the pass. I believe that we'll see a lot of 3-safety looks in the secondary, and there is good flexibility in this CB/Safety group--with several CBs fully capable of playing safety (Coby Bryant being perhaps the best example as he can switch between nickel corner and strong safety) and vice versa. I think we'll see some innovative deployments in the 'Hawks' secondary in 2023.
Although the Seahawks have brought back Bobby Wagner and added another linebacker from the Steelers, Devin Bush, they remain questionable in their run-stopping capability. They’re probably stronger at off-ball linebacker, and, as of 8/26/23, they've got back from serious knee surgery ILB Jordyn Brooks, a tackling machine that has led the team in tackles in the past. This likely means that Wagner and Brooks will be the starters at ILB, with Bush rotating in.
On the outside, they’ve added (from the 2nd round of the draft) Derick Hall, who should strengthen the pass rush, with Hall (or, more likely, Darrell Taylor or 2022 2nd-round pick Boye Mafe) playing opposite Uchenna Nwosu, last season’s best Seahawks edge rusher. So some improvement in the pass rush appears possible.
Where the Seahawks defense looks weakest is the D-line, (or perhaps more precisely the front seven) which was very poor last season, giving up a lot of yards against the run (where they were 30th out of 32, giving up an average of 151.9 yds./game). Looking at this year’s additions doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in much improvement in that area, although bringing back Bobby Wagner after his one year with the Rams should help. They’ve added one outstanding D-lineman, Dre'Mont Jones (from the Broncos), brought back Jarran Reed, and added another D-lineman, Mario Edwards Jr., all in free agency, and have added a couple more from the draft, Cameron Young and Mike Morris. There remains concern about the team’s strength at nose tackle, a key piece in any 3-4 defense, which is what the ‘Hawks will be running again in 2023. This will be Clint Hurtt's second season as DC and the second running a 3-4 scheme, and the hope is that with a year in this alignment behind them, the 'Hawks will be better.
Edit (8/3/23). It looks as if the Seahawks are now leaning towards playing Jarran Reed at NT--this after a week and a half of training camp. This will be a new position for Reed, as he's been a 3-tech previously with the Seahawks and last season with the Packers. We'll see if another interior D-lineman is brought in before the beginning of the regular season.
Edit (8/29/23). This hasn't happened, much to the disappointment of the rabid Seahawks fans (the "12"s). I had expected a trade to have been made by now to strengthen the interior D-line. Perhaps John Schneider and Pete Carroll are hoping to pick up someone from the other teams' cuts with the 53-man initial rosters having to be established today (8/29).
All things considered, the Seahawks D doesn’t look like a strength for 2023. With their strong secondary and with possible improvement from the edge rushers, they could be harder to pass against than they were last year (and they weren’t too bad in that area in 2022). However, the inability to stop the run (at which they were really terrible last season) will likely continue to at least some extent. Overall, it seems likely that the defense may improve a little from their 26th overall rank in 2022, and at the very best they may make it into the top half of the league in defense.
3. Special Teams. The Seahawks have real strength in this part of the game, with two of the best kickers in the NFL. Place kicker Jason Myers is a top-3 FG kicker (and is in the top three kickers re salary) with Pro Bowl credentials. Punter Michael Dickson has also made the Pro Bowl and has been an All-Pro. His towering punts have often flipped the field for the 'Hawks, and he is among the best in the NFL at pinning opponents inside their 20-yard line. As for punt and kickoff returners, this is not completely settled yet, although at this point it looks as if DeeJay Dallas will likely continue to perform in that role. In the past, several players have alternated at this task,
4. Coaching. This is a little harder to evaluate with much precision. On offense, OC Shane Waldron is entering his third year with the team, coming to the 'Hawks from the Rams where he had been Passing Game Coordinator. He has been given credit for helping Geno Smith have a Pro Bowl season in 2022, and so, although quite young, he may be one of the better OCs in the NFL. Will he be able to raise the overall offensive efficiency--with some new weapons--in 2023? Time will tell. On defense, DC Clint Hurtt is going into his second year in that role, having been promoted from Defensive Line Coach when Ken Norton, Jr. was fired as DC two years ago. Although the defense was poor in 2022, I haven't seen this universally attributed to Hurtt. As noted above, he installed a 3-4 front for the first time last season, and it's possible that the team wasn't quite ready for it. The team should be more-fully acclimated to it this season. So, at this point, the jury's out on Hurtt.
As for Head Coach, it's hard to find much wrong with Pete Carroll's performance in that role with the 'Hawks. There has been the occasional complaint about some of his in-game decisions, but, on the whole, he is regarded as one of the top HCs in the NFL (a recent poll had him at #5). The team's overall performance over the past decade has been outstanding, and much of this should, I think, be attributed to Carroll's ability to energize and inspire his players and his ability to build a very positive and competition-oriented culture around the team. He has done well over the years at getting his guys playing at a higher level than what others had expected and is the epitome of a "players' coach."
5. Overall Prospects for the Seahawks in 2023. The Seahawks went 9-8 in 2022, and the expectation among many pundits is that they should be a little stronger this season and able to do as well in 2023. It's probably worth pointing out that the 'Hawks are one of the youngest teams in the NFL and will have many players in 2023 who are either rookies or in their second year. To be more precise, 45 percent of Seattle's active roster consists of rookies or second-year players. One current pre-season prediction of expected wins in the 17-game season for the 32 NFL teams has the Seahawks at 8.5 wins, placing them at 6th or 7th in the NFC. I’d guess that they will end up somewhere in the 8-9 to 10-7 range, although if Geno Smith continues to shine at QB, they could go a little higher. The general consensus among most football writers is that the Seahawks will end up 2nd in the NFC- West, below the 49ers and above the Rams (expected to be 3rd) and the Cardinals, who appear to be planning to tank. With the NFC now clearly weaker than the AFC, this might mean a reasonably high finish relative to the other NFC teams and a playoff spot. Of course, injuries and other unexpected factors will affect everything, but, ignoring that, at this point a decent season seems a realistic possibility for the Seahawks, and the chances are likely a little better than 50-50 that they'll make the playoffs in the NFC. For what it's worth (probably not much at this point), FanDuel places the Seahawks' chances to make the playoffs at 54.95%.
The real strength in the NFL now lies in the AFC, with the Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, Ravens, and possibly the Jets, Dolphins, and Chargers ahead of most NFC teams. In the NFC, the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys are the class of the conference.