B.C.FAN wrote:Through Week 5, teams are still attempting 1-point converts more than two-thirds of the time. Here are the updated success rates:
1-point attempts: 58 of 72 (80.6%). Points per attempt: 0.806
2-point attempts: 21 of 29 (72.4%). Points per attempt: 1.448
Of the 2-point attempts:
Run attempts: 6 of 8 (75.0%) - see note
Pass attempts: 15 of 21 (71.4%) - see note
With 1-point and 2-point converts having similar success rates, teams that don't attempt 2-point converts are leaving points on the field.
Note: There is at least one error in the official CFL stats package relating to the number of running and passing converts and success rates in Game 12, and the overall success of running and passing attempts, so these numbers do not coincide with the official league stats. I haven't doubled checked other games.
Interestingly these success rates differ a fair bit from what we saw in the preseason. I posted in the "rule changes for 2015" thread this article by Kirk Penton who recapped the numbers from that period.
http://www.torontosun.com/2015/06/20/cf ... pre-season
Excerpt:
CONVERTS
One point convert kicks have moved from the 12 to the 32 yard line this season, which means it’s no longer automatic.
Teams attempted 33 convert kicks during the pre-season, and the placekickers made good on 30 of them, which works out to a 91% success rate. Last year the success rate on field goals between 31 and 33 yards was only 81%.
Two point converts have been moved up to the three yard line from the five in an attempt to lure teams to try more of them, and CFL squads were 4-for-8 in the pre-season.
The thinking was the one and two point converts would be similar in their odds of success, but it looks like the convert will continue to win.
So it’s simple: Move the convert back to the 50! (Kidding).
1PC attempts were much more successful in preseason than what we're seeing now, while 2PC bids fared significantly worse at 50% than where they are now at over 70%.
Back to the reg season numbers: also of note is that while 1PCs have only been clicking around 80%, a stat someone posted recently had it that FGAs from similar distances, 30-33yds (not sure how many of these) have ALL been made without fail. Is the greater point value of the FG a motivator here?
Or are we simply seeing — perhaps also for the reg/pre season splits — the limitations of statistics based on insufficient amounts of data?
Here's another odd thing about the 1PC/FG-from-same-distance dichotomy. On FGAs the spot of the ball — and I'm talking
laterally here on wherever the LOS happens to fall — is wherever the play was blown dead previously (or the nearest hash mark if blown dead outside these). So the kicker doesn't always get his preferred angle to the goal posts, whereas on convert attempts teams
do have this option to spot the ball wherever they like between the hash marks — anywhere at all.
Yet it's with this freedom that kickers are having less accuracy from approx 30-33yds out. If anything, one would think a difference in 1PC/FG success rates from similar distances ought to favour the 1PCs, all else being equal. But this clearly isn't the case so far. It could again be statistical limitations.
I would imagine the NFL is quietly watching the impact of our new convert rules. They considered several options in changing their convert rules and went with the one most resembling ours, which also comes into effect this year.
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/5/19/8 ... n-approved
NFL approves rule changes to extra point
By Katie Sharp, Tue May 19, 2015
The NFL approved rule changes to the way extra points and two-point conversions are handled at owners meetings on Tuesday.
The NFL owners approved rule changes to the extra point Tuesday at the spring meetings in San Francisco. The proposal that was eventually set forth by the competition committee -- the one which moves the extra point try without moving the yard line for a two-point conversion attempt -- is the one that passed.
Currently the line of scrimmage for both the extra point and two-point conversion is at the 2-yard line. Kicking the extra point there -- the equivalent of a 20-yard field goal -- essentially makes a touchdown worth seven points because of the near-purrfect accuracy of kickers from that distance. Kickers have made at least 99 percent of extra points in each of the last five seasons, and there hasn't even been a season under 97 percent since 1988.
The adoption of the two-point conversion in 1994 added a strategic wrinkle to game-calling. Teams had the choice to either take the safe extra point or go for two points by trying to get into the end zone from the 2-yard line. Last year, teams converted 47.5 percent (27 of 56) of their two-point attempts. Since the rule was adopted, there have been only four seasons with a success rate of better than 50 percent.
The reason this is significant is that other proposals that were voted on included a change that would move the two-point conversion attempt up to the 1-yard line, which would convince teams to go for it more often. Last season, teams had a 57.5 percent success rate both rushing and throwing for touchdowns from the 1-yard line.
Now the ball will be placed at the 15-yard line for the extra point, making the kick a more difficult 33-yard attempt. Over the last five seasons, teams have made roughly 93 percent of field goals from that distance, meaning that the decision to kick the extra point is no longer a mere formality after scoring a touchdown.
Another interesting twist is that the ball will be live after the extra point or two-point conversion attempt. This means that the defense has a chance to score two points if they force a turnover. It makes the post-touchdown play a much more interesting one from a defensive perspective and will force teams to really consider the personnel they use on extra points and two-point conversion attempts.
It's worth noting that teams which line up at the 15-yard line can still score two points if they get into the end zone, whether because they faked it or had to abort the kick attempt. Teams are also allowed to change their mind if penalties occur. If it's an offensive penalty, they can choose to kick the ball from the 20-yard line (in the case of a false start) or the 25-yard line (in the case of holding) for one point. If it's a defensive penalty, they can try a two-point attempt from the 1-yard line.
Safeties also come into the equation. Philadelphia's proposal would have made any safety worth two points, but under the accepted competition committee proposal, they will be worth one point, regardless which direction they go. If the defense possesses the ball, leaves the end zone and then re-enters the end zone, the offense can get a safety if they make a tackle. If the offense possesses the ball and somehow manages to be taken for a 90-plus yard safety, the defense would get one point.
The Oakland Raiders and Washington both voted against the extra point rule change, according to Mike Garafolo of FOX Sports.