Lions @ Riders, Nov 14, Pre-Game Odds and Comments

[joe kapp22]

Some notes from Wally B's interview on 1040:

-Sounds very much like Jesse Newman will take Sherko Haji's spot, Wally B baiscally said continuity is not worth it if the player cannot move well enough. WB sounded confident in Newman's ability to step right in as a he was a recent Grey Cup winning Starting Lineman

-Forecast is for 3 degrees with a chance of snow flurries, WB was concerned more with the wind.

I'd think a wind blowing across the field would favor the Defences.

[WestCoastJoe]

http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/Lion ... story.html

Mike Beamish sizes up the teams for the big game ...

• QUARTERBACK

• Advantage: Roughriders.

A key for the Lions is containing Darian Durant and not letting him get outside when the defence begins to break down. He led the CFL with 5,542 passing yards, but he’s frequently guilty of forcing the ball and thus led the league in another, more dubious, stat : interceptions (22). Travis Lulay’s decision-making is still a work in progress, but progress is his most important product. He was a 72 per cent passer over his final four games. That said, the Lions’ QB might have to ratch it up another notch to get by Saskatchewan.

Do we know how good Darian Durant is? Not sure. IMO he has been inconsistent. Look at the Riders' record. Lots of yardage. Lots of points. Lots of losses.

I would call this a tossup. Durant = Lulay, before they play. After they play, we will see.

• RUNNING BACK

• Advantage: Roughriders.

Wes Cates is a 215-pound bulldozer who camped out in the end zone more than any other CFL player. His 16 touchdowns (15 rushing, one reception) led the CFL. Cates went over the 1,000-yard mark in rushing (1,054) for the second time in his career and added 355 more as a receiver. Quick, short swing passes to Jamal Robertson can make the Lions’ feature back even more effective, although Robertson averaged better than six yards per carry (195 yards on 29 rushing attempts) in three games against the Riders defence, the worst in the CFL against the run.

IMO it is a tossup. Perhaps slight advantage to Cates over Robertson. In terms of using a running game, however, big advantage to the Riders, since our O has de-emphasized the running game since TC.

• OFFENSIVE LINE

• Advantage: Roughriders.

At left guard, the Riders have 16-year veteran and seven-time West Division all-star Gene Makowsky. At left tackle, the Lions have 22-year-old Jovan Olafioye, the baby of the the team though he’s built like Baby Huey, the gigantic cartoon duckling who doesn’t know his own strength. Still, in Makowsky, 14-year veteran centre Jeremy O’Day and import tackles Joel Bell and Dan Goodspeed, the Riders have an edge in experience and continuity. The Lions’ patchwork O-line, meanwhile, is about to get another patch, with Jesse Newman coming in to replace Sherko Haji-Rasouli (knees) at right guard.

OK. But our O Line can play well. Pass pro has been a problem. Running game is under-utilized.

• RECEIVERS

• Advantage: Roughriders.

While they don’t quite match the talents on Montreal and Calgary in terms of depth and dynamism, the Roughriders’ receiving corps is top notch, even with the loss of dangerous wide receiver Rob Bagg for the season. Slotback Andy Fantuz led the CFL in receiving (1,380 yards) and is one of the league’s elite players, Canadian or import. But the Lions’ Manny Arceneaux has been coming on strong (1,114 yards), rookie Steven Black has been flying under the radar, and Geroy Simon ties Rider stomachs in knots, just thinking about him. If Lulay is able to throw deep, the Lions can cancel out any perceived Rider edge.

Big edge on paper. The reality could be different. Geroy, Manny, Steven, Paris, with perhaps a little bit of help from O'Neil. These guys can be very good too.

• DEFENSIVE LINE

• Advantage: Even.

Aaron Hunt, who spent almost 11 weeks on the injured list with a torn pectoral muscle, intercepted Durant’s shovel pass in first game back on Oct. 31 and almost immediately changed the dynamic of the Lions’ D-line. The bear-like Hunt can tie up two blockers, enabling defensive ends Brent Johnson and Keron Williams more freedom to practise their marauding art. Like the Lions, whose sack leader was linebacker-nickelback Korey Banks, the Riders’ leading sack man was a hybrid player, Jerrell Freeman, who had seven, the same as Banks. If DE Brent Hawkins (shoulder) is healthy, the Rider rush improves.

We still lack some depth. 5 guys suiting up?

• LINEBACKERS

• Advantage: Lions.

Injury concerns could tip the balance toward B.C., with the status of Saskatchewan starters Sean Lucas (elbow), Daniel Francis (turf toe) and Barrin Simpson (ankle) problematic. Lucas and Francis are doubtful. Simpson, the CFL tackles leader, is probable. If MLB Simpson should suffer a relapse in Sunday’s game, Mike McCullough is more than capable. Lions’ first-year MLB Solomon Elimimian is not only the West’s rookie of the year, he’s a sideline-to-sideline, tackle-crazy defender. The Pineapple Express has a nose for the ball. Ditto for Banks, a disrupting time bomb who explodes all over the field.

Agreed. Solo, Korey and Anton, with Adam as support. Great group.

• SECONDARY

Advantage: Lions.

Ryan Phillips’ eyes get as wide as saucers at the sight of green and white and Roughrider starting quarterback Darian Durant. Of his 27 career interceptions, 13 of them have victimized the Riders, two coming in their most recent game, Oct. 31. While rookie David Hyland is playing strong-side corner only because of an injury to Davis Sanchez, Hyland had 21 picks in 43 games at that position in college. And short-side corner Dante Marsh is truly an all-star, though he was overlooked this year. The Lions’ weak link is at safety, in Tad Crawford. His Roughrider counterpart, James Patrick, led the CFL with nine picks.

We miss Sanchez. Crawford is questionable. Phillips doesn't like to hit. Franks gets picked on by QBs.

• SPECIAL TEAMS

• Advantage: Lions.

Do the Lions have an advantage? Not in the slightest. It’s huge. The Lions’ two most outstanding players were kicker Paul McCallum and returner Yonus Davis, who can make up a lot of ground when the offence is found lacking. Davis ripped through the Riders for an 88-yard punt return touchdown on Oct. 31, and McCallum led the CFL in field goals made (46) and percentage (88.5). Having played 12 seasons in Regina, capricious conditions won’t affect him. While P Eddie Johnson is excellent, the Riders’ kicking is problematic without Luca Congi, and the return game and coverage teams have struggled all season.

Davis. McCallum

• COACHING

• Advantage: Lions.

The Roughrider coaching staff annually provides a lesson to Saskatchewan’s school children why they shouldn’t doze off in math class. Accounting for all 12 players on the field tripped them up in the 2009 Grey Cup game, and did again this season. Wally Buono, who’s had his problems before as a frontrunner, seems to do better when not much is expected of his team. He did the “smoke and mirrors” thing in 2001 with the 8-10, Cup-winning Calgary Stampeders. Buono says this year’s 8-10 team is superior. The Lions are hot; the Riders not so much. We’ll see if hot counts in chilly Regina.

Wally has had more than a few brain farts in games too. I would call the coaching even.

[joe kapp22]

Well, for me, the two Qb's are in wildly different systems, the Riders push the ball downfield, we dink and dunk and scramble and take occasional shots downfield.

I think the Riders Wr corps does have an edge stat wise simply because they have continuity at Qb and on the Oline, but talent wise our corps is just as good.

Riders Oline is better, but I think adding Newman will help our Oline enough, he has had maybe 2 months to learn the system and to get into football shape and he is quite talented.

I think our real edge is in Rich Stubler/Mike Benevides, how they have gotten as much production out of the Defence is beyond me, but after 18 games we all have seen it week after week after week, Mike B pointed out that keeping Calvillo out of the endzone was probably the turning point for the young guys this year.

As for ST, RGM vs Yonus Davis, we also have seen Grice Mullen come alive in the playoffs last yr, but YD has been good all yr long.

Fun game, and really looking forward to watching it.

[Blitz]

Well, for me, the two Qb's are in wildly different systems, the Riders push the ball downfield, we dink and dunk and scramble and take occasional shots downfield.

I think the Riders Wr corps does have an edge stat wise simply because they have continuity at Qb and on the Oline, but talent wise our corps is just as good.

Riders Oline is better, but I think adding Newman will help our Oline enough, he has had maybe 2 months to learn the system and to get into football shape and he is quite talented.

I think our real edge is in Rich Stubler/Mike Benevides, how they have gotten as much production out of the Defence is beyond me, but after 18 games we all have seen it week after week after week, Mike B pointed out that keeping Calvillo out of the endzone was probably the turning point for the young guys this year.

As for ST, RGM vs Yonus Davis, we also have seen Grice Mullen come alive in the playoffs last yr, but YD has been good all yr long.

Fun game, and really looking forward to watching it.

I really believe the key to this game is if we are a) willing to run the football and b) can sucessfully run the football against the Riders. Saskatchewan had a lousy run defense this season. The Riders defense gave up the most yardage in the CFL, as opposing offences averaged over 137 yards per game against them. However, the Riders pass defense was third best in the league.

A better run/pass ratio, along with good blocking and running by our tailback, could be a key difference maker...if we our offence goes in that direction.

[joe kapp22]

Flight has been diverted to Calgary due to fog in Regina, on the bus they go!

Nothing has come easily this season, this should just be one more thing to deal with, the 2010 team is a resilient group.

[joe kapp22]

Well, for me, the two Qb's are in wildly different systems, the Riders push the ball downfield, we dink and dunk and scramble and take occasional shots downfield.

I think the Riders Wr corps does have an edge stat wise simply because they have continuity at Qb and on the Oline, but talent wise our corps is just as good.

Riders Oline is better, but I think adding Newman will help our Oline enough, he has had maybe 2 months to learn the system and to get into football shape and he is quite talented.

I think our real edge is in Rich Stubler/Mike Benevides, how they have gotten as much production out of the Defence is beyond me, but after 18 games we all have seen it week after week after week, Mike B pointed out that keeping Calvillo out of the endzone was probably the turning point for the young guys this year.

As for ST, RGM vs Yonus Davis, we also have seen Grice Mullen come alive in the playoffs last yr, but YD has been good all yr long.

Fun game, and really looking forward to watching it.

I really believe the key to this game is if we are a) willing to run the football and b) can sucessfully run the football against the Riders. Saskatchewan had a lousy run defense this season. The Riders defense gave up the most yardage in the CFL, as opposing offences averaged over 137 yards per game against them. However, the Riders pass defense was third best in the league.

A better run/pass ratio, along with good blocking and running by our tailback, could be a key difference maker...if we our offence goes in that direction.

To me, the key to winning this game is not surrendering big plays on defence, make the Riders grind out everything and force Durant to be efficient rather than explosive.

Agree with the running game, I also think, weather permitting, Lulay has to find some chunk yardage in the passing game.