Free Agent Predictions

[Murdoch]

Good discussion.

Looking at the number of injuries to QB''s last year including Masoli, Nichols, and BLM rumoured that they may not start the season, it makes for a tough argument to hitch your wagon to the one horse to get you through theory.

Vern Adams, Dane Evans, Nick Arbuckle, MBT, Cody Fajardo, Chris Steveler were all #2 QB's going in to the season. Evans was likely the highest paid of the group reportedly at $170,000 after getting his playing incentives.

Brandon Bridge would be a great story and let me be the 1000th person to say he is still young and has potential. Signing in Toronto with the players they were already committed to was not a good situation for him last year. I know they had the home town boy thing going. Reality was he had a slightly better chance than Noah Picton. Would love to see it happen where in the right spot , with the right coaching Bridge develops to a competent level. BC doesn't have to wait for free agency to re-sign him so anytime if that is what they are thinking.

Can't imagine they haven't already asked Mike Reilly to take a cut or reneg to add another year. Surely he can see how it affects the whole team. Risky even when he is an iron man.

As for saving money in other places I was surprised to see Lamar Durant get bumped into the $190,000's. Seemed like a lot but maybe that's where it is at.

[KnowItAll]

to reneg or to re-neg, that is the question

[Dusty]

to reneg or to re-neg, that is the question

Very clever..... Nice one!!!

[OV - 54:40]

I could see Maciocia going after one or both of Luke & Menard; the Als need D-Line help and Macocia would know both of these guys well, and might like to have even more Quebec talent on the roster; Luke could maybe be an instant starter there to upgrade their average to weak DT talent; Menard is a vet and a very good swing guy who can go in and play both DE and DT.

Campbell did not seem to like Canadian talent that much on his Ds in Ottawa - likely only 1 or 2 NI starters on his Lions' D ? Be interesting to see if Herdman or Konar get real shots to play LB, but IMO they could be very solid at MLB & Will.

Also be interesting to see if any CFL team targets Simonise = still an intriguing prospect IMO who might break-out with some real playing time. Again - Campbell had little use for NI receivers in Ottawa (other than Sinopoli) = little chance the Lions start 3 NIs at receiver again; so if Durant & Shaq Johnson are locks, what happens with another intriguing young receiver in Cottoy? BC could also think of drafting SFU's 6-7 receiver R. John who had a break-out season and is apparently drawing some NFL interest - who along with another BC guy receiver talent in Chase Claypool - NFL interest for sure = good on BC for producing some very interesting, big target pro receivers the past number of years (Durant , Cottoy & Simonise included)


And agree with Murdoch - would not totally write off Bridge as a CFL QB yet; doubt he will ever be a full-time starter - reads & accuracy are an issue, but could still be a good change of pace QB for packages (like Strevler was in the Peg) - he can run the ball but still has the rocket arm to throw deep off some run options.

[Hambone]

I could see Maciocia going after one or both of Luke & Menard; the Als need D-Line help and Macocia would know both of these guys well, and might like to have even more Quebec talent on the roster; Luke could maybe be an instant starter there to upgrade their average to weak DT talent; Menard is a vet and a very good swing guy who can go in and play both DE and DT.

Campbell did not seem to like Canadian talent that much on his Ds in Ottawa - likely only 1 or 2 NI starters on his Lions' D ? Be interesting to see if Herdman or Konar get real shots to play LB, but IMO they could be very solid at MLB & Will.

Also be interesting to see if any CFL team targets Simonise = still an intriguing prospect IMO who might break-out with some real playing time. Again - Campbell had little use for NI receivers in Ottawa (other than Sinopoli) = little chance the Lions start 3 NIs at receiver again; so if Durant & Shaq Johnson are locks, what happens with another intriguing young receiver in Cottoy? BC could also think of drafting SFU's 6-7 receiver R. John who had a break-out season and is apparently drawing some NFL interest - who along with another BC guy receiver talent in Chase Claypool - NFL interest for sure = good on BC for producing some very interesting, big target pro receivers the past number of years (Durant , Cottoy & Simonise included)


And agree with Murdoch - would not totally write off Bridge as a CFL QB yet; doubt he will ever be a full-time starter - reads & accuracy are an issue, but could still be a good change of pace QB for packages (like Strevler was in the Peg) - he can run the ball but still has the rocket arm to throw deep off some run options.

2 NAT starters on D has been the norm in BC going back to Benevides as HC. Typically it's been one on the DL and one in the secondary with forays into the LB core in the past 2 years. The only times in the past 7 years they've gone above that was when injuries to key import starters in 2016 and 2018 created opportunity for depth players to be injury replacements.
2013 - 18 starts by NATs on D under Benevides. JR Larose had them all.
2014 - 26 starts under Tedford. Larose had 18 and Westerman had 8.
2015 - 37 starts under Buono. Fraser (10) and Rwabukamba (8) split at S. Westerman (17) and Menard (1) split the DL spot. Lokombo picked up 1 start.
2016 - 42 starts. Again Westerman (16) and Menard (2) split a DL spot. Edem (17) and Fraser (1) split S starts. Kenyan Parker picked up 6 at field corner getting an opportunity due to TJ Lee's achilles injury that forced some secondary shuffling.
2017 - 32 starts. Thompson took over at S and started all 18. Forde, Luke and Menard shared 14 starts on the DL.
2018 - 44 starts. Thompson again started all 18. Luke (7) and Laurent (1) got some token DL starts while for the first time in several years some LBs found starting reps. Lokombo started 11 games and Herdman picked up 8 as injury replacement for Elimimian.
2019 - 36 starts under Claybrooks but they were scattered as the defense floundered somewhat under Stubler. Luke (4) and Menard (8) split some DL starts. Thompson (6) and Termanson (2) split some secondary starts mostly at FCB. Guyzlak-Messam at OLB was the busiest with 11 starts while Herdman picked up 5 trying to replace SolE before losing the MLB starting spot.

Over in Ottawa Campbell averaged 3 NAT starters on D for the first 4 years with 209 starts on D. It's just been the last 2 years where he seemed to drop to 2. Lack of depth to replace the recently oft injured Pruneau and general lack of depth on the DL seem to have forced that. At the same time they've developed a nice young OL with 5 capable starters which in turn reduces the need to have the number of defensive starters they had from 2014-2017.

I'm not concerned about what Campbell might do with receivers. Yes he seemed to rely solely on Sinopoli in Ottawa but at the same time he never had the depth and quality of NAT receivers that he will suddenly enjoy in BC. Cottoy looks like a stud in the making and should be a lock to be the 5th starting receiver in that rotational spot with a NAT FB. I don't know if they'll bother retaining Simonese. He didn't get much playing time but was definitely underwhelming when he did get to play and was targeted. Seems to still have problems with concentration as witnessed by the drops.

In Ottawa it was pretty much Sinopoli and a rag tag bunch of hobos. Part of the lack of depth is due to a draft strategy that has focused on the OL. Going back to 2013 when they were allowed to draft "futures" NCAA players who still had a year of eligibility left they have used their first pick on an offensive lineman every year except for 2014 when they selected Antoine Pruneau. They have used some 2nd round picks on receivers in the earlier years but neither McDonnell nor Harty worked out. Maybe recent picks in Dubois and Lewis will develop into good receivers.

[Gridiron Ernie]

Nice explanation regards the league's official negotiating window ahead of free agency:
https://www.cfl.ca/2020/01/27/negotiati ... ee-agency/

[Gridiron Ernie]

With the Bombers cutting QB Matt Nichols today, one wonders if he might end up with LaPolice in Ottawa -- however it's still up in the air what will come of Nick Arbuckle's rights having been traded there earlier this off-season. Doesn't seem like too many other obvious options around the league at the moment so far as starting QB job for Nichols, but he'd be nice to have in the stable if needed (as is so often the case over the course of a season). Perhaps in TO. Interesting development. A lot of interesting developments are just around the corner for all teams!
https://3downnation.com/2020/01/28/bomb ... t-nichols/

[B.C.FAN]

With the Bombers cutting QB Matt Nichols today, one wonders if he might end up with LaPolice in Ottawa -- however it's still up in the air what will come of Nick Arbuckle's rights having been traded there earlier this off-season. Doesn't seem like too many other obvious options around the league at the moment so far as starting QB job for Nichols, but he'd be nice to have in the stable if needed (as is so often the case over the course of a season). Perhaps in TO. Interesting development. A lot of interesting developments are just around the corner for all teams!
https://3downnation.com/2020/01/28/bomb ... t-nichols/

It will be interesting to see whether Ottawa tries to reunite Nichols with Paul LaPolice or signs the younger and (presumably) cheaper Arbuckle. Toronto is probably a less enticing destination but may have more money to offer Nichols. The Argos are also said to be interested in retaining McLeod Bethel-Thompson and Michael O'Connor.

Nichols led the league in efficiency last year at 107.2. Arbuckle was second at 106.5. Arbuckle led in completion rate of 73.1%. Nichols was fifth but not far behind at 71.3%. Several factor weigh against Nichols in addition to his price tag, though. He will be 33 in March and is coming off season-ending shoulder surgery for an injury sustained when he was sacked by Shawn Lemon of the Lions Aug. 15.

Nichols' 2019 stats were bolstered by a Winnipeg offence that featured lots of screens and checkdowns to Andrew Harris. Nichols did not have a 300-yard passing game in 2019. He led the league in completion percentage on passes of less than 10 yards (84.6%) but was last in completion percentage in passes of 10-19 yards (47.2%) among QBs with 200 attempts.

[Hambone]

With the Bombers cutting QB Matt Nichols today, one wonders if he might end up with LaPolice in Ottawa -- however it's still up in the air what will come of Nick Arbuckle's rights having been traded there earlier this off-season. Doesn't seem like too many other obvious options around the league at the moment so far as starting QB job for Nichols, but he'd be nice to have in the stable if needed (as is so often the case over the course of a season). Perhaps in TO. Interesting development. A lot of interesting developments are just around the corner for all teams!
https://3downnation.com/2020/01/28/bomb ... t-nichols/

It kind of adds an interesting twist. Ottawa gave up their 3rd for the rights to negotiate with Arbuckle prior to free agency. Should they sign him they will also give up their 1st, which is 1st overall, in exchange for Calgary's 6th overall slot. At that time there was no way of knowing what the QB FA landscape would look like come Feb.11th which IMO justified the proactive move to get Arbuckle's rights. For all they knew at that time with Masoli having been extended their options likely would be Arbuckle and either Collaros or Nichols leaving them to battle with Toronto on the open market. Had Masoli not extended he could well have been their target but with him out of the way they could have faced the possibility the Argos would have their minds set on the same guy in free agency. With Collaros turning into Winnipeg's QB of choice Nichols is now out on the market. When Ottawa dealt for Arbuckle did they envision that or did they think Winnipeg would opt for the seemingly less risky choice of Nichols over Collaros?

Now that Nichols is available might they shift their direction and go after him instead thereby conceding the 3rd rounder already lost but keeping 1st overall? Is the change of 6 spots in the 1st round of the draft enough to sway them? I'd think not given the importance of the QB position. It should still get down to who LaPolice prefers to be his QB in the coming seasons with the draft pick swap in the 1st bearing no weight whatsoever.