CFL: Rating the teams

The Place for BC Lion Discussion. A forum for Lions fans to talk and chat about our team.
Discussion, News, Information and Speculation regarding the BC Lions and the CFL.
Prowl, Growl and Roar!

Moderator: Team Captains

Post Reply
South Pender
Legend
Posts: 2782
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:24 am
Location: Vancouver weekdays; Gulf Islands on weekends

notahomer wrote:Anyway I'd be curious as to how they build the formula that spits out their CFL rankings.....
The weights in the multiple regression analysis used to predict a team's "offensive score" are explained in that link after the 19 weekly Power Rankings: http://cfl.ca/page/cflca-mathematical-power-rankings

Then they explain (see the quoted material below) how they use those to arrive at the Power Rankings:
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

"Each week a Club’s 'weekly score' will be determined by calculating a Club’s 'offensive score,' using the formula above, then subtracting its opponent’s score calculated using the exact same formula.

Once a weekly score has been determined, the Power Rankings will be determined:

1. For the first half of the season by taking each week’s score and weighting them evenly (for example, the Power Rankings in week 4 would weight each week 25%, week 5 would weight each week 20%, and so on), except for the first week, which is based 50% on the regression score and 50% on last year's standings; and

2. For the second half of the season, after Labour Day, by weighting the current week 20%, the immediately prior week 10%, and all other weeks 70%."
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

As for turnovers, it appears that fumbles and turnovers on downs are in the equation, but not interceptions. This might because the latter factor into the QB rating, which is given weight.

As for the rankings themselves, they look about right to me.
User avatar
notahomer
Hall of Famer
Posts: 6258
Joined: Sat Nov 16, 2002 12:09 pm
Location: Vancouver

Yup, the rankings look about right but the formula that got them there? Not so sure.

Thanks for posting the link, I shoulda looked a little deeper at the site. I'm willing to look a little deeper at the results but not so sure about the site.... :wink:

I surely can't come up with a better model so I should just SHUT UP, right now but I won't. I guess how your defence is playing is determined by your opponents offensive numbers? I mean some teams are just better at passing and/or running. Therefore stats like TOP and ints should come into play but certainly would have to be adjusted for.

I wonder if Steve Daniel is involved in the 'power rankings'. He certainly has been getting credit for doing yeomans' work on improving the offical CFL stats. I guess this stuff makes sense once you run it through the formula.......

Certainly has a bed of data to draw from.......
Post Reply