The Last Two Games - What to do?

[Toppy Vann]

You gotta win both games.

However, it'd still be nice to see a backup QB get some reps as there is no way Dane Evans or any backup can do much without some game time.

Other teams back ups get a few meaningful reps per game: Prukop WPG and Cameron Dukes TOR.

I think Ryan Dinnwiddie has never forgotten how he was expected to magically win the Grey Cup game that Kevin Glenn got them to back in 2007.
I think that is why he played Cameron Dukes the full game against the Bombers. It's also why with Argos behind a few points and somem 2:35 on the clock that Chad Kelly didn't make a move to get his helmet as many other starters would.

I think Dinwiddie is not going to try and win a Grey Cup game not having a backup QB with some decent game experience knowing that they dodged a bullet last GC when McLeod Bethel Thomspon broke his thumb and Kelly unbelievably shot out the lights. I think Dinwiddie knows what it was like for him.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers

After an injury to Winnipeg Blue Bombers starting quarterback Kevin Glenn in the 4th quarter of the CFL East Division Final on November 18, 2007, Dinwiddie was pressed into action. He made his first CFL start for the Blue Bombers against the Saskatchewan Roughriders in the 2007 Grey Cup, won by Saskatchewan 23 to 19. Dinwiddie gave up 3 interceptions to James Johnson.[4]

I also think this scenario colours Milt Stegall's Panel comments on TSN when it comes to backups who can actually play. That was the ONE Grey Cup, he had a decent chance of winning.


The question I have about Dane Evans is if he's capable mentally to come off the bench with little playing time and actually help win a game based on how he left Hamilton.

Evans QB the Elks game but Elks were awful:

Evans completed 25-of-32 pass attempts for 330 yards and two touchdowns in the team’s 27-0 victory over the Edmonton Elks this past week. It was his first regular season start since being acquired by the Lions via trade this past off-season.

Evans second start was the 50-14 beating in WPG by the Bombers where he was hurt:

Dane Evans was unable to complete his second start for the Lions, exiting the game shortly before halftime due to a rib injury sustained on a hit from Adam Bighill early in the second quarter.

https://3downnation.com/2023/08/04/lion ... e-bombers/

[Lui05]

Until such time the Lions are mathematically eliminated from finishing first, play your starters.

With the additional knowledge of how the Hamilton game went, there's no way I would play VA next game. Another use for math is to determine probability. I don't have exact numbers, but I know the probability of Winnipeg losing to both Edmonton and Calgary is very low. The probability of BC beating Calgary with any of our 3 quarterback is relatively high. The most likely scenario is as follows:
1. BC finishes the season on 2 game winning streak.
2. Winnipeg wins last 2 games
3. Calgary loses last 2 games
4. Saskatchewan loses last game but backs into the playoffs because Calgary fails to gain on them by losing their last 2 games.

Yes, a different outcome can happen. But IMHO, the stats tell me the potential cons severely outweigh any pros from a statistical standpoint. BC is firmly entrenched in position two in the standings. Sloppy play and poor planning lost them the chance for first. Doubling down on the mistakes made against Winnipeg to trot out banged up players in a meaningless game is not a winning game plan.
I would rest any player with any sort of nagging injury that would benefit from the rest.

[cromartie]

You gotta win both games.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers

After an injury to Winnipeg Blue Bombers starting quarterback Kevin Glenn in the 4th quarter of the CFL East Division Final on November 18, 2007, Dinwiddie was pressed into action. He made his first CFL start for the Blue Bombers against the Saskatchewan Roughriders in the 2007 Grey Cup, won by Saskatchewan 23 to 19. Dinwiddie gave up 3 interceptions to James Johnson.[4]

I also think this scenario colours Milt Stegall's Panel comments on TSN when it comes to backups who can actually play. That was the ONE Grey Cup, he had a decent chance of winning.

2001 was a Grey Cup the Bombers should have won in a walk. They were a juggernaut that lost to a sub .500 Calgyra team.

I think Evans is fine coming off the bench; probably one of the league's best. Largely because his per play decision making ability is limited. It's when he's your starter that his limitations become evident. A good backup and a good acquisition by the Lions.

[DanoT]

You gotta win both games.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers

After an injury to Winnipeg Blue Bombers starting quarterback Kevin Glenn in the 4th quarter of the CFL East Division Final on November 18, 2007, Dinwiddie was pressed into action. He made his first CFL start for the Blue Bombers against the Saskatchewan Roughriders in the 2007 Grey Cup, won by Saskatchewan 23 to 19. Dinwiddie gave up 3 interceptions to James Johnson.[4]

I also think this scenario colours Milt Stegall's Panel comments on TSN when it comes to backups who can actually play. That was the ONE Grey Cup, he had a decent chance of winning.

2001 was a Grey Cup the Bombers should have won in a walk. They were a juggernaut that lost to a sub .500 Calgyra team.

I think Evans is fine coming off the bench; probably one of the league's best. Largely because his per play decision making ability is limited. It's when he's your starter that his limitations become evident. A good backup and a good acquisition by the Lions.

My biggest concern with Adams is that he tends to hold on to the ball too long. Of course that was a Doug Flutie characteristic as well, so it is not necessarily all bad. Evans, with time running out did an extraordinary job of doing a quick read and getting rid of the ball...very Nathan Rourke like. And it was very successful, proving Evans' value as an experienced backup. That said, depending on the seriousness of Adams' injury and the likelihood that Lions will now finish in 2nd place, I would start Evans in the next game.

[B.C.FAN]

Vernon Adams was a full participant in practice Monday. Rick Campbell said he'll play against the Stamps on Friday "as long as he's not medically compromised."


Adams said he's planning to start.
https://x.com/FarhanLaljiTSN/status/171 ... 02915?s=20

[David]

With a bye week after Friday, I can perhaps see how the staff wouldn't want VA to be too rusty going into the West Semi (or even more unlikely, the West Final), so to play him for a quarter or so seems reasonable.

But to trot him out for an entire game given how he could barely put any weight on his knee last Friday seems risky and foolish. Unless he gets bonused for 5K passing yards (he's 347 yards away)? Even then, we have to put the team's best interests ahead of personal goals, and giving Dane Evans plenty of reps seems like a wise move to me.


DH

[B.C.FAN]

One more factor to consider is that B.C. and Calgary could meet in two weeks in the WSF. Giving the Stamps a full dose of VA running the B.C. offence this week would make it easier for Stamps to develop a playoff game plan.

[SammyGreene]

I would be resting Betts if he wasn’t chasing the single season sack record for a Canadian. The last guy on defence we need dinged.
He will be collecting all the bonuses in his contract and poised to make much more as a FA in 2024:

4) Mathieu Betts, B.C. Lions (N)

Hard money: $180,000
Maximum value: $206,000

Fans balked when the Lions made Betts the league’s highest-paid Canadian defensive lineman a year ago but he earned every penny with a career season in 2022. The 28-year-old has already received a $30,000 offseason bonus for next season and will earn an additional $1,000 for every game he plays at least 51 percent of the defensive snaps. It will cost B.C. $1,000 if he leads the division in sacks, $2,000 if he leads the league, $2,000 if he is named a divisional all-star and $3,000 if he receives a CFL all-star selection.

[DanoT]

With a bye week after Friday, I can perhaps see how the staff wouldn't want VA to be too rusty going into the West Semi (or even more unlikely, the West Final), so to play him for a quarter or so seems reasonable.

But to trot him out for an entire game given how he could barely put any weight on his knee last Friday seems risky and foolish. Unless he gets bonused for 5K passing yards (he's 347 yards away)? Even then, we have to put the team's best interests ahead of personal goals, and giving Dane Evans plenty of reps seems like a wise move to me.


DH

I have been thinking pretty much the exact same thing. I would add that if the team rests Adams and he ends up just shy of earning a statistical bonus, the Lions could always just pay him the bonus anyway.

[Toppy Vann]

I get the concept of performance incentives and the player awards as both are important to these players' careers. I'm with David, just give them the money despite it can create some divisions in locker rooms as who gets to be close like in horseshoes and who doesn't.
Some - maybe even VA - might like the $$$ but be angry they didn't get the 5000 yards as they were on the bench.
Some suggest Chad Owen is less deserving of an MOP vote as he's sat out.

But it's nice for a team to be in a position to even think of resting players as there's no sure formula in football in this regard.

The week off before the WD semi-final is for some a chance to get some recovery from a hard season but for some it's also a loss of edge in performance.

It's always tough to play the same opponent two games in a row and defeat them both times in most sports except maybe baseball where you have a pitching staff to choose from. That has to factor into how this game this week gets played.