The following is my take on the match-ups:
Quarterbacks
Not to take anything away from Matt Nichols – he has a fast release, can pick apart defenses, and has been a big part of the Bombers' turnaround. But there’s no one I’d rather have for us under center right now than Jennings – with the possible exception of BLM, and that’s primarily due to experience. Does anyone in CFL or NFL have a better touch on the deep ball than him? If JJ sticks to the game plan and play calls and doesn’t try to do too much when facing pressure, it’s…
ADVANTAGE: BC
Running backs
Harris struggled a bit early in the season, but with the massive Travis Bond inserted at left guard and improved run blocking, he’s had good success rushing the football in 2016. Plus, you have to love Harris’ ability to catch the ball out of the backfield on Nichols’s check downs (screens and dump passes). As a defense, you have to be aware of where Harris is at all times or he’ll kill you (why do teams always try to tackle him high? He might have the most powerful legs of any CFL back not named Messam). He’s going to be super-motivated to beat BC too. However, Jeremiah Johnson is no slouch himself, averaging nearly a full yard per carry more than Harris (5.0 vs 5.9). Factor in speedy Chris Rainey who can catch the ball, run the jet sweep or spell off Johnson and it’s…
ADVANTAGE: EVEN (if Jeremiah Johnson is less than 100% though, it’s
AVANTAGE: WINNIPEG)
Receivers
Bombers did a really good job of shutting down “Team100 2.0” (Arceneaux and Burnham) last time we faced the Bombers, but you know Khari Jones has looked at the film to try and move the CFL’s #2 and #3 receivers around to mitigate the Man/Cover 2 the Bombers employ. It’s going to open up a lot underneath if Jennings is patient. Losing Gore hurts (I love Adekolu but he’s very green). Still, with Sinkfield as the X Factor, try and get him 1 on 1 with the slower Loffler. I am saying…
ADVANTAGE: BC
Offensive line
Impressive that the Bombers lost C Jeff Keeping early in the season and haven’t missed a beat with Goosen. Very little separates the two lines IMO. We have one of the best left tackles in the league in Jovan Olafioye but Stanley Bryant is no slouch either. Right tackle on BC’s line has been a slight concern for me for the past few weeks.
ADVANTAGE: EVEN
Defensive line
I am really liking Turner and Brooks anchoring the middle of our D-line (was calling for more of this pair earlier in the season – glad to see it’s happening now). Although Bazzie has cooled off from his sack pace early, Craig Roh has greatly improved over last season IMO and has become quite disruptive off the edge. Our Leos ranked 2nd in the CFL this year with 50 sacks. While the Bombers’Jamaal Westerman’s sack production was down this year, he’s still a force.
ADVANTAGE: BC
Linebackers
One would think we have a big edge here with TEAM100 and the hard hitting Loucheiz Purifoy, but the Bombers have some ballers at linebacker too led by Maurice Leggett, Ian Wild, and Khalil Bass. Still, it’s…
ADVANTAGE: BC
Defensive backs
Hard to believe we’ve been as good as we have been with season ending injuries to TJ Lee, Steven Clarke and Ronnie Yell. Still, there are ball hawks and then there’s the Winnipeg secondary. That group has forced a league-high 29 picks (Hamilton the next closest with…wait for it…17!). Jennings has to be careful not to throw into double/triple coverage as this group can kill you in the turnover department. They force fumbles too with swarm tackling. Generating turnovers is the weakest part of BC's game.
ADVANTAGE: WINNIPEG
Return game
With Kevin Fogg out of the game with injury, this comes down to Quincy McDuffie vs Chris Rainey. You have to put your money on the Rain Man.
ADVANTAGE: BC
Kicking game
This is tougher to call than it looks. 2 weeks ago I would have said Winnipeg – easily, as I value field goals more than punts and there isn’t a deadlier field goal kicker in the CFL than Justin Medlock. With McCallum now signed, it adds a slightly different nuance to things. I love McCallum’s accuracy, but his range isn’t quite as far as Medlock’s. There is however a big punting advantage for B.C. with Leone’s boomers. The Lions enjoyed an punt average that was 6.7 yards per kick farther than the Bombers over an entire season. That’s big.
ADVANTAGE: EVEN
Coaching
The Lions have a coaching legend in Wally Buono. He has a sizeable advantage coaching in big games over Mike O’Shea, so the experience factor is huge. But this isn’t to suggest O’Shea can’t get his team up for a “winner moves on” playoff game; I think he can. Further, Wally’s conservatism in big games has held his clubs back IMHO, so his post-season winning % isn’t as good as it could be with the talent he’s assembled. And “conservative” isn’t an adjective I’d pin on Mike O’Shea. He has a knack of knowing when to exploit a team with a surprise fake or gadget play and leverage that with points and momentum. Don’t overlook the O'Shea factor.
ADVANTAGE: EVEN
Intangibles
It’s hard to imagine this 12-6 Lions team losing 3x in a row to the Bombers (or any other team other CFL team for that matter, save the Calgary Stampeders). If BC Place is rocking, the crowd could give BC a big lift (if there are lots of empty seats and the crowd is not a factor due to an early 1:30pm start however, it could have the opposite effect). Don’t discount the “Harris” effect. He’s going to be a man on a mission to stick it to us - that's just who is, he wears his heart on his sleeve - so it’s imperative we have someone like Purifoy spying him at all times. However, I’ve seen evidence of Nichols coming back down to earth in the last couple of weeks with some ghastly INTS. If the Lions can limit the turnovers, it’s…
ADVANTAGE: BC
DH
