dfootball wrote:owner David Braley says 37,000 tickets sold for Western Final. Sellout is 53,000 plus, Braley likes his chances.
from 1130 am sports twitter just know
acually i heard it creeping up on 38, on cknw today, could we hit hit 40,000 by tom.
if we do then we could hit 50,000 even by sunday morning.
From a time series of screen caps of the ticketmaster seating map, I've been tracking since late Sunday evening in seat-by-seat fashion the sale of tickets specifically in the upper bowl behind the Lions sideline. This is the $98 "coach's sideline" price point area: basically, six sections — half of 438, all of 439-443 and half of 444, roughly between the 20s — comprising 3280 seats or about 6% of capacity. I've also been tracking the status of singles and so far they're a fairly static collection of seats as per my expectation.
If this particular area is anything to go by for a read on the whole stadium, the slow pace of sales in the last 48 hours or so — which so far has shown little to no sign of accelerating — will have to pick up MIGHTILY to have ANY hope of reaching 50k. In fact, it's pretty clear that uptake in the upper bowl to date is greatly overweighted to my tracking area (prob about the same situation on opposite sideline), because if the whole upper bowl were selling uniformly at the same rate, we'd already be around 42.8k instead of merely 37k as per the latest announcement.
Taking into account:
![:football: :football:](./images/smilies/football.gif)
nearly sold out lower bowl,
![:football: :football:](./images/smilies/football.gif)
extrapolation to kickoff Sunday of somewhat slow but steady sales I've seen in my tracking area,
![:football: :football:](./images/smilies/football.gif)
same final percentage of uptake in rest of upper bowl (this is prob the least reasonable assumption at the moment), and
![:football: :football:](./images/smilies/football.gif)
allowance for singles that likely won't sell,
my current attendance projection is 45,200. I'm going to continue my tracking through as close as possible to kickoff and might revise this in the days ahead if I see signs of either plateauing or acceleration, especially compared to announced sales figures. If attendance ends up falling short of this projection, I think it will be down largely to relative lack of uptake outside the 20s in the upper bowl, and THAT would be down to the out-of-whack pricing strategy that has been beaten to death on this board. People who aren't price sensitive are buying premium seats at a relatively brisk clip while the rest of the market has so far been rather gun-shy.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.