Why Our Leos Will Win the WDF

[Blitz]

Our Leos will win the Western Division Final and earn a Grey Cup berth at home. While a lot of folks think that home field advantage,with a very loud and large crowd will be a huge factor, these are the ressons why we should win on Sunday.

1. Time is on Our Side

Time is a key factor in football. How much time does the opposition quarterback have to throw. How much time does our secondary have to cover. Time to throw makes good quarterbacks look great and not enough time makes them look average or worse. We'll win because we've done a great job of protecting Travis Lulay and giving him time to throw. For the first time in the Buono era we gave up the least amount of sacks in the league. In previous Western Division Finals our quarterbacks were besiged. Not any more. Travis Lulay stuggled at times in his first 7 games this season because he was under duress. During our winning streak, Lulay had much more time to throw and the results were more than evident.

Defensively, we finished second in the league in quarterback sacks and we have the personell on defense to get to Ricky Ray. Not sure if we will go with a six man defensive rotation for the first time thsi season or with a five man rotation but either way, we'll get pressure on Ricky Ray.

2. Quarterbacking

There have been a lot of controversial quuarterbacking decisions for our Leos during the Buono era, especially in the 2004 Grey Cup game, the 2005 WDF, and the 2007 WDF. Even during the 2006 Grey Cup game we inserted Pierce for Dickenson for some series. Playing a rusty quarterback in the playoffs has not been successful. Not this time. Lulay has started every game this season and will go all the way, unless he gets hurt. That consistency will make a big difference.

3. The Messam Factor

We may have stopped Messam last game suing our two huge tackles in Mitchell and Foster but Messam didn't make the Canadian All-Star team as one of the two best backs in the league by accident. Edmonton runs its offence through Messam, who is a powerful back with a burst of speed. Edmonton will miss him.

4. We're Healthy

The layoff gave us the opprotunity to let guys heal up. Everyone is ready to play and when we have everyone healthy we have the best talent in the league.

5. JaquesBall

ChapBall really hurt us in the past . Defensses were well prepared for our predictable and vanilla offence. JaquesBall is a totally different kettle of fish. It s turned me into a fan of the offensive scheme we've used over the past 11 games. We'll score enough points to win this game

6. Defense Wins Championships

With a front 7 than can essert trendous pressure and a defensive backfield with a lot of experience, our defense, if it plays aggressively and smart has the ability to really stymie Edmonton's offence.

7. The McCallum Factor

McCallum has been ice cool and more than efficient in the playoffs as a Leo. His field goal kicking could mean the difference.

WHAT COULD DERAIL US?

Anything can happen in a single game. Lullay could be nervous, we could have some early rust on us. Turnovers are often the difference. However these key factors could allow Edmonton to upset us.

1`. Conservatism

Wally's playoff record is checkered due to his conservative philosophy. If we return to ChapBall and don't attack in an aggressive and multi-ddimension way or he has Benevedes defense play passively and conservatively it will hurt us. When Ricky Ray has time he can pick a defense apart but he has ta tendancy to dump off undder pressure.

2. Underestimating Edmonton's Backs

If we underestimate what Edmonton's backs like Calvin McCarty and Charles can do, both in terms of rrunning the football or catching the football our of the backfield it could be damaging.

WRAP

Whe can believe we are one gane away from a Grey Cup berth, the way this season began. Its been amazing-Chap being visited by the ghosts of football past, present and future and changing our offence the way he has into something exciting and unpredictable. Benevedes changing back to the 4-3 and coaching aggressive football. . Lulay emerging as the best quarterback in the league. The emergence of Andrew Harris. Geroy having a tremdous season. Khalif Mitchell becoming a one man wrecking crew on the inside. Keron Williams playing like a monstor at defensive end. Korey Banks back patrolling his old defensive halfback spot alongside Dante Marsh and Phillips back to ballhawing on the wideside. Reddick stepping in to become a tremendous nickelback. McCallum's field goal streak.

This really has been a season to remember. Hope it all works out on Sunday. Enjoy the game everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[the-real-hugo]

If we underestimate what Edmonton's backs like Darren McCarthy and Charles can do, both in terms of rrunning the football or catching the football our of the backfield it could be damaging.

Calvin McCarty is so underrated, people don't even know his name
Looking forward to this football game on Sunday - should be one of the best of the season!

[WestCoastJoe]

For the first time in the Buono era we gave up the least amount of sacks in the league. In previous Western Division Finals our quarterbacks were besiged. Not any more. Travis Lulay stuggled at times in his first 7 games this season because he was under duress. During our winning streak, Lulay had much more time to throw and the results were more than evident.

Pass protection schemes have been very good.

Defensively, we finished second in the league in quarterback sacks and we have the personell on defense to get to Ricky Ray. Not sure if we will go with a six man defensive rotation for the first time thsi season or with a five man rotation but either way, we'll get pressure on Ricky Ray.

As noted I would very much like to see Wally dress 6 D Linemen.

Lulay has started every game this season and will go all the way, unless he gets hurt. That consistency will make a big difference.

He looked good in TC in his first year. That was no fluke. At the top of the heap in the quarterback ranks now in the CFL.

We may have stopped Messam last game suing our two huge tackles in Mitchell and Foster but Messam didn't make the Canadian All-Star team as one of the two best backs in the league by accident. Edmonton runs its offence through Messam, who is a powerful back with a burst of speed. Edmonton will miss him.

Agreed.

The layoff gave us the opprotunity to let guys heal up. Everyone is ready to play and when we have everyone healthy we have the best talent in the league.

Agreed.

ChapBall really hurt us in the past . Defensses were well prepared for our predictable and vanilla offence. JaquesBall is a totally different kettle of fish. It s turned me into a fan of the offensive scheme we've used over the past 11 games.

I am very happy for Jacques for his large role in the turnaround of our season. He has shown he can do the Xs and Os with any of the OCs and DCs in the league. And I am happy to see that the OCs and DCs of the league have caught up to the previous advantage owned by Hufnagel and Trestman in their first years as Head Coaches in this league. They, along with many other factors, finally forced Wally to adjust his schemes. IMO ...

With a front 7 than can essert trendous pressure and a defensive backfield with a lot of experience, our defense, if it plays aggressively and smart has the ability to really stymie Edmonton's offence.

There will always be a temptation for Wally to play conservatively. Hopefully Benevides and Chapdelaine can keep the guns blazing.

Conservatism

Wally's playoff record is checkered due to his conservative philosophy. If we return to ChapBall and don't attack in an aggressive and multi-ddimension way or he has Benevedes defense play passively and conservatively it will hurt us. When Ricky Ray has time he can pick a defense apart but he has ta tendancy to dump off undder pressure.

Agreed.

WRAP

Whe can believe we are one gane away from a Grey Cup berth, the way this season began. Its been amazing-Chap being visited by the ghosts of football past, present and future and changing our offence the way he has into something exciting and unpredictable. Benevedes changing back to the 4-3 and coaching aggressive football. . Lulay emerging as the best quarterback in the league. The emergence of Andrew Harris. Geroy having a tremdous season. Khalif Mitchell becoming a one man wrecking crew on the inside. Keron Williams playing like a monstor at defensive end. Korey Banks back patrolling his old defensive halfback spot alongside Dante Marsh and Phillips back to ballhawing on the wideside. Reddick stepping in to become a tremendous nickelback. McCallum's field goal streak.

All good.

Guns blazing. Take no prisoners.

[Blitz]

If we underestimate what Edmonton's backs like Darren McCarthy and Charles can do, both in terms of rrunning the football or catching the football our of the backfield it could be damaging.

Calvin McCarty is so underrated, people don't even know his name
Looking forward to this football game on Sunday - should be one of the best of the season!

Thanks..edited for hockey crossover!

I agree with WCJ...would love to see us dress six defensive lineman...but who would come out of the 42 man roster.

If we are not going to use Keirie Johnson on returns I would love to see us start Paris Jackson and Foster..but doubt it will happen.

If we went with 6 defensive lineman we could take Bighill out of the lineup but he has been good on special teams. Or we could use our two Canadian defensive backs as backups and not dress two imports there as backups. Lots of scvenarios.

[TheLionKing]

The Lions should win but anything can happen in a one game winner take all. Hope the Lions don't take the Schmoes lightly just because they beat them 3 times this season.

[Blitz]

The Lions should win but anything can happen in a one game winner take all. Hope the Lions don't take the Schmoes lightly just because they beat them 3 times this season.

Me too... Wally is 8-8 in the Western final (plus 0-1 in the Eastern final) with homefield advantage in 12 of those 16 Western Final games.

[ziggy]

The Lions should win but anything can happen in a one game winner take all. Hope the Lions don't take the Schmoes lightly just because they beat them 3 times this season.

Me too... Wally is 8-8 in the Western final (plus 0-1 in the Eastern final) with homefield advantage in 12 of those 16 Western Final games.

Great to have played in that many playoff games! Not many coaches can say that! Think about it, most coaches would kill for that, imagine the wins it took to get there.

[WestCoastJoe]

I agree with WCJ...would love to see us dress six defensive lineman...but who would come out of the 42 man roster.

If we are not going to use Keirie Johnson on returns I would love to see us start Paris Jackson and Foster..but doubt it will happen.

If we went with 6 defensive lineman we could take Bighill out of the lineup but he has been good on special teams. Or we could use our two Canadian defensive backs as backups and not dress two imports there as backups. Lots of scvenarios.

At times in the past Wally dressed just 6 O Linemen. In the last few years he has dressed 7.

Or get Andrew Jones to work out as both O and D Lineman. He played D in college. Give him some game reps on D to keep the guys fresh.

IMO D Line is much more demanding physically than O Line. A fresh D Line can be overwhelming for the O.

[ziggy]

I agree with WCJ...would love to see us dress six defensive lineman...but who would come out of the 42 man roster.

If we are not going to use Keirie Johnson on returns I would love to see us start Paris Jackson and Foster..but doubt it will happen.

If we went with 6 defensive lineman we could take Bighill out of the lineup but he has been good on special teams. Or we could use our two Canadian defensive backs as backups and not dress two imports there as backups. Lots of scvenarios.

At times in the past Wally dressed just 6 O Linemen. In the last few years he has dressed 7.

Or get Andrew Jones to work out as both O and D Lineman. He played D in college. Give him some game reps on D to keep the guys fresh.

IMO D Line is much more demanding physically than O Line. A fresh D Line can be overwhelming for the O.

Yep,
signed Rob Murphy and Jason Jimenez.

[WestCoastJoe]

I agree with WCJ...would love to see us dress six defensive lineman...but who would come out of the 42 man roster.

If we are not going to use Keirie Johnson on returns I would love to see us start Paris Jackson and Foster..but doubt it will happen.

If we went with 6 defensive lineman we could take Bighill out of the lineup but he has been good on special teams. Or we could use our two Canadian defensive backs as backups and not dress two imports there as backups. Lots of scvenarios.

At times in the past Wally dressed just 6 O Linemen. In the last few years he has dressed 7.

Or get Andrew Jones to work out as both O and D Lineman. He played D in college. Give him some game reps on D to keep the guys fresh.

IMO D Line is much more demanding physically than O Line. A fresh D Line can be overwhelming for the O.

Yep,
signed Rob Murphy and Jason Jimenez.

I would not consider that a good debate point. Murphy and Jimenez were ferocious O Linemen for us back in 2006. I recall Murphy pancaking many a guy. And yet we gave up lots of sacks. And I don't see a pair of tackles of the calibre of Murphy and Jimenez left with the remaining teams. (Our two guys, Archibald and Olafioye are right there, however).

A fresh D Line can be overwhelming for the O.

My point, since you sidestepped it, is that 6 fresh D Linemen, especially with the talent our guys have, is likely capable of totally dominating any O Line in the league. We have had very good success with even just 5 D Linemen. I would expect a fresh 6 man squad would be even more difficult for an O Line to handle.

The ratio is a limiting factor of course. But I do believe it would be possible to suit up 6 D Linemen if Wally saw it that way.

You can have the last word ... (and about that tick in your eye, meditation might help) (teasing)

[ziggy]

Sorry Joe, I thought you were talking physically demanding, sorry if I side stepped it, not sure how but...???

[Blitz]

I really believe the X factor in this game is Rich Stubler and what he is going to try to do to limit our offence.

Stubler's defensive corps will be in their 3-4 defense, the same defense that Stubler ran in Toronto and gave our offence probems in the 2004 Grey Cup loss. Stubler will play pass first. Harris will get extra focus from the linebackers on passing plays. Stubler will try to disguise his blitzes but will often drop 9 into coverage. He wants his defenses to bend but not break and then set up interceptions.

While our personell did not suit the 3-4 nor did Benevedes have a lot of experience running that defense Stubler has a ton of experience with it. The game within the game will be Jaques and Stuber matching wits.

In terms of our defense, I would go with 6 defensive lineman for this game and keep fresh bodies attemting to keep a lot of heat on Ricky Ray but if Wally really felt the roster was better only using 5 defensive lineman I would drop Smith for this g game but I really believe that Wally will likely sit Taylor if he goes for 5 lineman, which would be a mistake. Mitchell and Taylor would plug the inside and get inside pressure, especially if rotating with Aaron Hunt. On the outside, Keron Williams and Brent Johnson could also be spelled off by Hunt and Brent can also go inside at times..and the rotation would be fresher if we also used Smith.

If Wally went with six defensive lineman, he could drop Bighill (we already will have Yarichuk as a backup linebacker who can rotate) but hBighill's special teams play will likely negate that...Wally could go with Demnis, Mahmoudi, Aragki, and Muamba as depth in the defensive backfield and drop Priest.

Another otpion would be to drop Keirie Johsnon out of the offence and go with Paris Jackson and Foster as receivers with Iannuzzi and Thelwell as depth at receiver.

It will be interesting to see what the 42 man roster turns out to be. For anyone not aware of the import ratio rules they are copied below from cfl.ca

Import RatioEach team may have a maximum of 42 players, including 3 players who shall be identified as quarterbacks and 39 other players, of whom not more than 19 may be imports.

Teams must have a minimum of 41 players, including two players who shall be identified as quarterbacks and 39 other players, of whom not more than 19 may be imports.

Each team must establish a reserve roster of 4 players. These 4 players may be imports or non-imports.



Roster Breakdown
Import Non-Import Quarterbacks Total
19 20 3 42

Import Ratio ExplainedEach team may dress a 42-man active roster consisting of:

•3 QBs (no designation)
•19 imports
•20 non-imports
The 19 imports break down as follows:

•16 imports
•3 Designated Imports
The three designated imports are players who can play on special teams OR replace an import starter (they cannot start).

Of the 24 starters on a team, a minimum of seven starters must be non-imports. When applied to a starting roster of a team it breaks down as follows (when using the minimum number of non-import players):

•1 QB
•16 starting imports
•7 starting non-imports

[Blitz]

Some interesting stories going into Sunday's game. The first is that both coaches would be prepared to go with their backups if either starter seriously faltered. Really don't see Lulay being pulled nor Ray but its happened before. Jason Maas came into the game in the 2005 Western Final and replaced Ricky Ray and marched Edmonton downfield and that substition was the key to the game (and the insertion of Printers for Dickenson in the late moments of that game was only a non-call pass interference call on Simon) to bringing us back.

Wally replaced Printers after he hurt his shoulder in the 2004 WDF and he replaced starter Jarious Jackson with a rusty Dickenson before the first half of the WDF with dismal results. Hufnagel also had the strategy backfire when he replaced Tate with Burris in the semi-final last week.

Kerry Joseph has been inserted at times for Edmonton throughout the year and could be utilized again in this game or to replace a faltering Ricky Ray.

Still, I believe that both starting quarterbacks will go all the way and Lulay and Ray will be the two guys that either quarterback their teams to victory or defeat.

Edmonton and B.C. are much closer than most people think. Both finished with the same record, although we finished stronger. Our 3-1 record, in head to head battles with Edmonton is misleading. When we defested the Eskimos in Edmonton to start our winning streak Edmonton's two import tackles — Devin Tyler and Chris Patrick — were starting their first games and all of Edmonton's starting receivers were injured and not playing and the other games were battles.

Kelvin McCarty has great hands out of the backfield and is an excellent pass blocker and Stubler is known as a mastermind whose 3-4 defense is really a defense that does a lot of things in disguise.

This is going to be a battle. Hopefully Edmonton's offensive line will not get away with their usual holding because that is Edmonton's weakest area and one we need to take advantage of.

[Lionheart]

The Lions will win the West Division Final because:

Dem eskimoos no guud. Day just no guud.

Carl Kidd

[mrbigglesworth]

The biggest concern I have is over-confidence by the Lions. IMO the last Edmonton game was actually a lot closer than most people give the Esk credit for. There were a handful of plays (Esky drops, overthrows, missed tackles,..) that could have quite easily gone the other way and perhaps changed the outcome. I'm sure K Reed is making sure his team is aware of this. At the same time, I have to believe Wally is one of the best at keeping the team grounded.