Eastern Final, November 20, 2011 Vegas Odds and Comments

[WestCoastJoe]

Tor - Win 8.5 ... Take the Peg.

5 Ham - Sas ... Take Ham.

Edm - BC 4.5 ... Take BC.

Cal - Mon 5 ... Take Mon.

Go with the odds. And expect some upsets. LOL

[notahomer]

Your picks look about right WCJ. I'd like to see the Riders and Argos have big games but they probably won't.

[WestCoastJoe]

http://blogs.theprovince.com/2011/10/28 ... rt-vol-18/

Lowell picks 'em ...

FRIDAY
Toronto at Winnipeg, 5 p.m.
Free speech is again a casualty, but you can’t complain what Bombers coach Paul LaPolice is doing this time. LaPolice’s gag order comes in the fact he is charging his team $5 every time they mention ‘first place’ or ‘Grey Cup’ in a quote. Probably a good thing seeing as though the Bombers haven’t secured top spot yet and are the team with the longest Grey Cup drought in the league.
Winnipeg can put one hand on first place (sorry, Paul) with a win, seeing as though their opponents are basically in rebuilding mode. Province pick: Bombers

SATURDAY
Hamilton at Saskatchewan, 12 noon
Saskatchewan has also officially shut down for the season, a week after the standings indicated they could do so, when the Riders elected to send Darian Durant and Andy Fantuz out to pasture for the final two games. Not a bad idea.
No matter what Ken Miller decides to do, or what is done to him, Saskatchewan needs to reassess its talent base and there is no better way than for the starting quarterback to give way. Ryan Dinwiddie and Cole Bergquist will play the next two weeks behind centre.
Hamilton has been sparked by its win over B.C., but there is still concern with the running game, which goes along with the weekly guessing game as to how much Kevin Glenn and Quinton Porter will play. Hamilton signed ex-Edmonton back Daniel Porter as insurance behind Avon Cobourne, who clearly didn’t look right against the Lions. Province pick: Ticats.

Edmonton at B.C., 7 p.m.
It appears at this stage the Lions will actually be able to field a team, but don’t think the Eskimos will be feeling sorry for their opponents. Remember it was the Eskimos who played a game against the Lions without four receivers earlier this year and lost by 35 points.
Edmonton is in much better shape, and with a fourth straight win against the Lions would almost qualify to achieve Kavis Reed’s recent challenge to his team of ending the season with five straight wins, similar to as they did when they opened the year 5-0. Edmonton plays host to Saskatchewan next week, which clearly puts the pressure in this one on the Lions, who have struggled offensively for two weeks. Province pick: Eskimos

SUNDAY
Calgary at Montreal, 10 a.m.
Home-field advantage could be on the line in a couple of ways depending on results earlier in the weekend. The good news for Calgary is that they won’t have to juggle its ground game further, as a health scare to Jon Cornish was ultimately ruled to be faulty and the Stamps can use him and Joffrey Reynolds in tandem again.
Drew Tate didn’t look bad against Saskatchewan in his debut behind centre. But Anthony Calvillo throwing three picks against Winnipeg? Province pick: Stamps
Last week: 2-2 Season record: 36-28

[Belize City Lion]

This weekend really only comes down to what the Lions do. Best case, Winnipeg wins, BC wins, and Calgary wins. In this scenario we have a home playoff game clinched and will play a Montreal team locked in second place.

But, if Winnipeg somehow manages to lose to Toronto we could face a Montreal team fighting for first in the east. Worst case, Winnipeg loses, BC loses, and Montreal loses. Then we face Montreal with the winner either earning second in the west or first in the east.

But here's where it gets tough for the Lions... if we win tomorrow Calgary will know they can't move out of 3rd and could take it easy on the Als. Montreal beats Calgary and they show up next week needing a win as much as we do.

Losing that game last week in Hamilton was massive. Not good massive, the way the kids use the word.

[sj-roc]

if we win tomorrow Calgary will know they can't move out of 3rd

Incorrect.

A Lions win tomorrow clinches SFA for us. We could still end up in 3rd, provided Edm and Cgy win their remaining one and two games respectively (they would both finish 11-7) and then we lose vs Mtl in the season finale (to finish 10-8).

In fact, a Lions win tomorrow leaves 1st place in play for Cgy. If we lose they can't get any better than second because Edm would clinch 1st.

[Belize City Lion]

if we win tomorrow Calgary will know they can't move out of 3rd

Incorrect.

A Lions win tomorrow clinches SFA for us. We could still end up in 3rd, provided Edm and Cgy win their remaining one and two games respectively (they would both finish 11-7) and then we lose vs Mtl in the season finale (to finish 10-8).

In fact, a Lions win tomorrow leaves 1st place in play for Cgy. If we lose they can't get any better than second because Edm would clinch 1st.

you are correct, sir. I had it in my mind that we were 2 points up on Calgary coming into this weekend. So last week's meltdown in Hamilton is even that more detrimental to our post season seeding.

[sj-roc]

if we win tomorrow Calgary will know they can't move out of 3rd

Incorrect.

A Lions win tomorrow clinches SFA for us. We could still end up in 3rd, provided Edm and Cgy win their remaining one and two games respectively (they would both finish 11-7) and then we lose vs Mtl in the season finale (to finish 10-8).

In fact, a Lions win tomorrow leaves 1st place in play for Cgy. If we lose they can't get any better than second because Edm would clinch 1st.

you are correct, sir. I had it in my mind that we were 2 points up on Calgary coming into this weekend. So last week's meltdown in Hamilton is even that more detrimental to our post season seeding.

Thanks, but I really wish I weren't. And you're right, we could really end up paying for that Ham loss last week.

From my years of following this team, my recollection has been that the tiebreakers we win, end up not mattering, and when we need them, we lose them. In fact, I just checked... we haven't really won a tiebreaker that mattered since 1974.

[TheLionKing]

Steven Jyles was injured tonight on a helmet to helmet hit by Argos Johnny Sears . Surprisingly Sears was not ejected on that play but was ejected later on another altercation a few plays later.

[WestCoastJoe]

One big upset so far.

Argos over the Bombers. Who would have thunk it?

[WestCoastJoe]

Second upset of the week. Riders 19 - Cats 3.

Topsy turvy league.

[TheLionKing]

Would like the Riders continue to play well and beat Calgary next weekend.

[notahomer]

Not to pick on Lowell (I read his work on the Lions faithfully and his Fifth quarter blog) BUT, I'd kinda like to see him go 0-4 on his picks this week. The only game I've gotten right so far is the Lions beating the Eskimos......

[WestCoastJoe]

Good game Mon. vs Cal.

8 point lead for Calgary in the 4th.

I am enjoying the announcing of Gord Miller, along with Matt Dunigan, whose commentating I already liked.

[Belize City Lion]

Would like the Riders continue to play well and beat Calgary next weekend.

The Riders play Edmonton next week... regardless a Rider win next week would be great for us. I don't like the fact that Calgary won today because it would have been nice to take away any chance of first for the Stamps. The only upside would be that a Winnipeg victory over Calgary next week would clinch first for Winnipeg before the Lions kick off against Montreal. On the other side, if the Als had won today, a Stamps victory (the more probable outcome) would have clinched first for Montreal before our game even started. I'd say the odds that Montreal will be playing us needing a win to clinch are pretty strong. Not a good situation for our beat up Lions.

What's the tie break situation between Calgary and Edmonton?

[sj-roc]

What's the tie break situation between Calgary and Edmonton?

Edm owns:

Jul 23: Edm 24 @ Cgy 19
Sep 5: Edm 35 @ Cgy 7
Sep 9: Cgy 30 @ Edm 20