US Presidential Election

[MikeAK]

If Florida goes to Obama it's all but over for Romney

Obama is leading in both Florida and Ohio. It's getting close to obvious now.

[Toppy Vann]

If Florida goes to Obama it's all but over for Romney

I am watching CNN now and even Alex Castellanos is talking a bit down on his own party. Karl Rove who projected a GOP POTUS landslide has backtracked big time these past few days.

There are some still some keys yet to the win. The total vote (popular) is still good for Mitt.

GOP has the House again. The Tea Party and Grover Norquist are still in play. That for me is quite sad as former US Senator Alan Simpson - a Republican says it best - if you dont believe in compromise, get out of politics.

I loved US politics since high school and had no dislike for either GOP or DEMS as both parties had leadership and members who were moderate, thoughtful and engaged in compromise. Now as Bill Clinton notes those recently who cooperated with Obama from the GOP are now gone at the hands of the knives in their own party.

How could people vote a guy in who offshores his money and does this stuff? This has been known for a long time not just the other day.


OCTOBER SURPRISE:

Mitt Romney Used Church Loophole To “Defer” Taxes Over 15 Years

Nov 4, 2012
104
By Kirsten West Savali

Bloomberg’s Jesse Rucker reports:

Romney used the tax-exempt status of a charity — the Mormon Church, according to a 2007 filing — to defer taxes for more than 15 years. At the same time he is benefiting, the trust will probably leave the church with less than what current law requires, according to tax returns obtained by Bloomberg this month through a Freedom of Information Act request.

In general, charities don’t owe capital gains taxes when they sell assets for a profit. Trusts like Romney’s permit funders to benefit from that tax-free treatment, said Jonathan Blattmachr, a trusts and estates lawyer who set up hundreds of such vehicles in the 1990s.

“The main benefit from a charitable remainder trust is the renting from your favorite charity of its exemption from taxation,” Blattmachr said. Despite the name, giving a gift or getting a charitable deduction “is just a throwaway,” he said. “I used to structure them so the value dedicated to charity was as close to zero as possible without being zero.”

This is a great US patriot?

[MikeAK]

Yeah it's amazing that he's even made it this far. Just goes to show that politics in the US has become a full on showbiz gong show.

[MikeAK]

Obama is going to win Florida. Not official yet but looking very likely. Mathematically it's getting tough for Romney.

[WestCoastJoe]

The US electorate is fractured.

And the fracture is only going to reduce the Republican Party in the coming years. They still cater to the wealthy, the white and the male population. Also Christian, anti gay, anti immigration, anti abortion, anti global warming, anti global perspective. They have really painted themselves into a cormer. The Old Boys' Club they have enjoyed no longer has the votes.

The problem for the Republican Party is that the Old Boys do not want to give up their control, and they don't want to liberalize their appeal. And the biggest, new, huge influence, the Tea Party, is dragging them more away from the up and coming voting groups.

Personally I am glad to be witnessing the gradual diminishment of the Republican Party. They used to be more moderate. Now they have become rather extremist. And the biggest disappointment is that the so called fiscally conservative party has become the biggest destroyer of balanced budgeting.

All of this of course is just IMO ... Not looking to upset any supporters of conservative politics. I have voted on both sides of the spectrum at different times, for different reasons, and different candidates.

Just some quick numbers ...

By gender ...

45 to 52 % men in favor of Romney

55 to 43 women in favor of Obama

Youth in favor of Obama

Elderly in favor of Romney

Urban in favor of Obama

Rural in favor of Romney

For Obama, read Democratic

For Romney, read Republican

[WestCoastJoe]

Even if Romney takes Florida, Virginia and Ohio, he may well be short of the magic 270.

He is trailing in Ohio, very slightly behind in Florida and very slightly ahead in Virginia.

Could he win Nevada? Dunno about that.

He is trailing in Colorado and New Mexico.

It is looking good for Obama.

[MikeAK]

This is turning out to be a very disappointing night for all Republicans.

[Toppy Vann]

It's over!!! President Obama returns - wiser, smarter and hopefully with a GOP that wakes up in Congress and helps out Americans and the world.

For Canada we need these guys to be sane as they are our friends and key trading partner.

For Mitt Romney.

A tribute by Doris Day.

[TheLionKing]

Anybody who wants to cut funding to Big Bird to cut the deficit doesn't deserve to get elected.

[Sir Purrcival]

Truth be told, I think Mitt Romney is more a victim of trying to bridge the ideological gaps in his own party than of anything else. The Republican party is going to have to either find a way
A. to bring some of their more extreme elements closer to the center or
B. Find some way to remove themselves from some of the more extreme segments within their own party.

If the popular vote says anything tonight, it says that you can appeal to a great many people but lose an election. The Republicans need to find a way to reach some middle ground. If the ultra right wing of the party continues to promote their messages of anti choice, anti immigration, anti taxation,, it is only going to get worse for them. In short, they need the support of women, African Americans and Hispanics. It is a trend that is only likely to continue as time goes on. Their message isn't ever going to play well with these groups and they are becoming a more prominent segment of the American population. You can't move forward by looking backwards. It may well mean that the moderates within the party are going to have some real conflict with the ultra conservatives sooner than later.

[Toppy Vann]

This is turning out to be a very disappointing night for all Republicans.

A very gracious concession by Gov. Romney who has to be disappointed of course as this will be his last hurrah with so many other lined up waiting to take the GOP mantle. He thanked all the right people. He had no nut case like Palin demanding to speak after him as she just never understood how important it is for the losing candidate to give closure and endorse the people's choice.

Big Bird will be partying and shaking on the best bird seed the gov't can fund tonight. Oh right, the gov't doesn't fund that show - but that's a fact.

Paul Ryan retained his seat in the House.

Grover Norquist -a log cabin GOPer and unelected lobbyist with 279 members of the House signed up to be loyal to him still has the GOP Senators up for re-election in 2 years in his sights. Raise ONE tax and these guys won't win their Primaries. Ask the other GOPers who dared cooperate with the DEMS.

Grover and other lobbyists have still a stranglehold on the HOUSE - the people's voice. In a parliamentary system you have the discipline of the Whip and the threat that you will be expelled from Caucus and your leader won't sign your official nomination papers to keep you line. In the USA they have lobbyists to keep their folks in line.

Two things have to happen:
1. They have to get the money out of the system - lobbyists.
2. Voters have to expect more of the elected but they need to stop voting their biases and hates.

Here are the GOP ranting about choice for women and anti-gay but here is log cabin GOPer Grover Norquist with 279 members under his whip.

There's not enough of the GOPers left that think this about how 279 members of Congress are under his thumb.

“You’re pledging to an ideology of someone who’s not in government -- he’s a lobbyist -- and I just don’t think that’s a smart move,” said Ted Yoho, a Republican running in Florida’s 3rd Congressional District. “It just ties your hand and it limits you. I just think it impedes the lawmaker.”

I'm not sure but I think in Canada an MPs oath of office would preclude signing onto to some other power's doctrines.

It will be hard for a party with to move to the centre more with Norquist and the Tea Party in Congress and those still clinging to those biases.

[South Pender]

As so many commentators have noted, now the really hard work begins for Obama. I'm glad that the Affordable Health Care Act won't be eliminated or gutted. As Canadians, we have hopes that certain things will be possible during Obama's second term. My nomination for specific Hope #1 is that Obama will quickly reverse his stand on the Keystone pipeline. Now that he's won the election, he no longer has to pander to the extremists in his own party by whom he was pretty much forced to delay ratification until after the election.

For those of us with middle-of-the-road political values, we shouldn't for a minute gloat and count the Republicans out. After every election (and we see it in Canada too, when just recently the Liberals were seen as finished federally just after the last election, but, of course, aren't), there is much hand-wringing, finger-pointing, and crepe-hanging by the losing party. Their death notices are published far and wide--even, some times, by members of that party. The evidence suggests, however, that they do find a way to return to the field to fight another day. Sometimes, it's due mainly to incompetence or stupidity on the part of the winning party who take the wrong message out of their win. American politics has a pendulum effect. After eight years of a Democratic White House, Americans may well want to see some adjustment in the political landscape. There are smart guys in both parties, and I guarantee that the Republicans will be ready for the midterm elections of 2014 and the presidential election of 2016. Obama just has to do a better job with his second chance if there's to be a new Democratic administration in 2016 (or even a senate majority in 2014).

I think it's just too easy after an election to see everything clearly: why the victor won; why the other guy lost. All of a sudden it makes complete sense, even though 12 hours earlier no one really had a clue about how it would turn out--including the candidates themselves and their staff. You hear phrases like, "well as we knew all along, he would take this state or that county" when the polls were showing a dead heat or even a reversal of the eventual outcome. In my opinion, politics and political issues and factors are much more layered that the pundits would have us believe. We've heard all kinds of pronouncements about the future of the Republican party now that they've lost, but I'll bet that four years from now, very few, if any, will turn out to be accurate, and a whole new dynamic, perhaps reflecting a single transformative person, will emerge. As an aside, I think we may be seeing this in the Canadian federal Liberal party with the emergence of Justin Trudeau. After the last election, the Liberals were written off as done--now to be replaced by the NDP--and a number of pundits were quick to write the prescriptions needed for any hope of recovery. None of those remedies may now be necessary or remotely come to pass, but if Trudeau wins the leadership, it won't matter; they'll be back. I wouldn't call Trudeau transformative (like Obama has the potential to be), or even worthy of the leadership, but his ascendance has changed the whole calculus. We may see the same in the US with the Republicans.

Just one last point. I can't see Grover Norquist as a Log Cabin Republican, but I can see his influence fading some now. He's had a lot of influence with congressmen, but not, as far as I know, with senators. And I believe that Obama can, without help from Congress, let the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy expire, and this, I imagine, will render Norquist pretty much neutered, at least for the moment.

[notahomer]

Certainly some big differences but also similarities between US/Canadian politics.

I thought both candidates gave good speeches once it was obvious the electoral college was decided. Its still amazing to me that such a big win can happen in the only vote that matters, the electoral college, but the actual votes are close. This has happened before in US presidential elections and even here in BC in a provincial election. The NDP 'won' an election and formed government even though the BC Liberal party got more votes.

One thing that does concern me about US politics is how fraud and/or other issues are impacting the elections. People getting phone calls to vote the DAY AFTER voting day, broken and/or perhaps tampered with machines that don't correctly tabulate votes, HUGE LINES where people are still waiting to vote THREE HOURS after the polls were supposed to close. And this is without hearing about hanging chads etc....

IMO, both these parties (democrats/republicans) are willing to adjust/twist/rearrange rules that will benefit them being elected. This could be via voting schedules, ID requirements, voting machines etc... I think its a shame some people are willing to win by any means necessary. Thankfully, it seems these kinds of problems occur less in Canada but obviously those stories are starting to creep into our elections too. Oh well, at least we get a vote......

[South Pender]

Certainly some big differences but also similarities between US/Canadian politics.

I thought both candidates gave good speeches once it was obvious the electoral college was decided. Its still amazing to me that such a big win can happen in the only vote that matters, the electoral college, but the actual votes are close. This has happened before in US presidential elections and even here in BC in a provincial election. The NDP 'won' an election and formed government even though the BC Liberal party got more votes.

Sure it happens in Canada all the time--like the last federal election in which the Tories, who, of course, won, got about 40% of the popular vote. In fact, it's almost inevitable whenever you have a functional multi-party system as we do in Canada federally and in some cases provincially (as we saw in the last Ontario provincial election). This is one reason that I've always admired the US two-party system (although not the gridlock that arises from squabbling houses of Congress with different majorities). In my opinion, we'd be better off in Canada with a two-party system: one right of center and one left of center. If we had that, along with the Westminster parliamentary system we have, then we'd almost never see that obviously awkward phenomenon where the winning party got a minority of the popular vote. In the US, we saw that with Bush v. Gore, in which Gore got slightly more of the popular vote, but lost. This time around, it looks as if Obama will not only win in the Electoral College, but also in the popular vote, although not by much in the latter. This is good as it reinforces the idea that the President has won a mandate--something that would be less clear if he won only the Electoral College vote. My guess is that, when all the ballots are counted, the popular vote will end up something like 50.7-49.3, maybe going up to 51-49, but still far closer than in 2008.

[TheLionKing]

Will Obama still face gridlock as the Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives ?