2012 U.S. Presidential Election Thread

Must be 18 to enter! Talk about anything but Football

Moderator: Team Captains

Who do you hope will win the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election?

Barack Obama / Joe Biden (Democratic)
10
71%
Mitt Romney / Paul Ryan (Republican)
4
29%
 
Total votes: 14
User avatar
WestCoastJoe
Hall of Famer
Posts: 17721
Joined: Mon May 22, 2006 8:55 pm

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalcu ... ttleground

If one looks at the electoral map, one sees that not much changes from one election to the next. And IMO not much will change after the debates. The West and the Northeast vote Democrat. The South and the Central states vote Republican.

US politics is frozen in time, divided by ideology, reilgion, wealth, guns, xenophobia, abortion, sex, sexual orientation and even race.

I've watched Presidential elections relatively closely since Eugene McCarthy shook things up back in the 1960s.
.......

The US has had some outstanding Presidents. And some duds.

As our neighbour, and as the long time leader of the free world, what happens in the US matters to us.

But I do have concerns ...

As the unattributed quote from long ago says, "People get the government they deserve." I think there is some truth in that. And I feel fortunate to have been born in Canada. :thup:

Not going to discuss specifics of the debates. Was a time when I would have dived in. But for now, I don't think the debates change anything in the polarized United States.
User avatar
Toppy Vann
Hall of Famer
Posts: 9794
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:56 pm

As John King says we watch this through the prism of our own eyes/experiences.

These Republicans are not the GOP of yesteryear and it scares me if they get Romney as there are many experts who think we haven't yet bottomed out yet economically.

As Romney touts 15% business tax rates in Canada as a prime example of what they need to do in the USA he is leaving out how the Liberals under Chretien got our fiscal house in order so that these tax rates can be lowered. GOP won't allow any tax increase even on the rich. While Romney paid just 14% personally it is criminal how he deliberately overpaid at that rate just not to get his rate down to 11%.

The entire global economy's direction will get settled we hope when this election is over and the USA deals with the fiscal cliff. The USA simply cannot afford another major war in the Middle East and Romney now has 17/24 foreign policy advisors that are former Bush neo-cons. Yikes.

Quite frankly I have never seen a GOP candidate so loose with the truth than Romney. His governor days of Mass was so poor that today he is not even contesting that state. Those in the know say he overstated his role in the Olympics mess taking all the credit far beyond his actual contribution.

Trickle down tax cuts don't create jobs. If you want to read a stunning piece Google Joseph Stiglitz and the Price of Inequality. The rich are getting richer at the expense of the US middle class.

Romney says gov't does not create jobs - he is right. But GOP is wrong to hate gov't as it has a role to play in creating conditions for business and personal success.
R&D and education are two major areas for gov't to play a role. Same as here in Canada and now I fear for youth as the costs of education are so high and not all the jobs today are good.
"Ability without character will lose." - Marv Levy
User avatar
Sir Purrcival
Hall of Famer
Posts: 4621
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2003 11:48 am
Location: Comox Valley

What seems to be eluding some of the voters is that the US is not the entire choir, it is a member of a chorus. People are talking about jobless rates being high and implying that somehow that is Obama's doing. That the country needs to get back to his former greatness and so on. That is a pipe dream as the reality of today is entirely different than it was in the past. Obama got stuck with some very expensive military actions, had major economic problems with most of his Western Allies and so on. Maybe 50 years ago, the mighty US juggernaut could carry much of the worlds economy on its back while at the same times spending gobs of money on the military and its foreign policy but that is no longer feasible. Competition from other countries in the areas of labour, productivity, access to resources and so on are the new reality. Massive debt and deficits can been generated easily but paying them off is not. The basic rule of thumb has to be that you spend what you can afford. The US has been ignoring this rule and time is catching up to them. Energy is not going to become cheaper, water is not going to become more abundant, nor is food or natural resources. They either learn to live within their means or eventually they will fail. It maybe a long rope they are going to hang with, but hang they will unless they stop living in the past fiscally.
Tell me how long must a fan be strong? Ans. Always.
South Pender
Legend
Posts: 2779
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:24 am
Location: Vancouver weekdays; Gulf Islands on weekends

Toppy Vann wrote: The entire global economy's direction will get settled we hope when this election is over and the USA deals with the fiscal cliff. The USA simply cannot afford another major war in the Middle East and Romney now has 17/24 foreign policy advisors that are former Bush neo-cons. Yikes.

Quite frankly I have never seen a GOP candidate so loose with the truth than Romney. His governor days of Mass was so poor that today he is not even contesting that state. Those in the know say he overstated his role in the Olympics mess taking all the credit far beyond his actual contribution.

Trickle down tax cuts don't create jobs. If you want to read a stunning piece Google Joseph Stiglitz and the Price of Inequality. The rich are getting richer at the expense of the US middle class.

Romney says gov't does not create jobs - he is right. But GOP is wrong to hate gov't as it has a role to play in creating conditions for business and personal success.
R&D and education are two major areas for gov't to play a role. Same as here in Canada and now I fear for youth as the costs of education are so high and not all the jobs today are good.
Although not a big Romney fan, I do think that the one file on which he would do better than Obama is the economy--in the larger sense--and the handling of the upcoming "fiscal cliff." Or maybe I should be more specific: Romney would be more likely to prevent the possibility of a second recession than would Obama. He'd do it at the expense of the middle and lower classes, however, by relying on spending cuts rather than greater revenue generation through taxes. I don't get the sense that he's a "compassionate conservative." As you say, Toppy, I doubt that he'd spend as much on education and educational accessibility as would Obama.

However, viewing this election from this side of the border, I suspect that Romney might be better for Canada. I'm not an economist, but it is certainly true that at least most of the readers of the National Post have this view. (I know, I know, the NP readership trends somewhat to the right.) Speaking purely pragmatically here, it doesn't necessarily help us in Canada to see more money in the pockets of the US lower and middle classes. They might buy more manufactured goods from us if they had more spending power, but I suspect that this would not be a big factor, with our exports of raw materials and resources being our main revenue-generator in our relationship with the US. And side-stepping another recession through tighter control of government spending would have huge benefits for Canadians, since, if another recession hits, we'll surely be dragged down into it despite our presently-stronger economy, which I believe (but many of you don't) is largely due to the stewardship of our federal Conservatives.
User avatar
Toppy Vann
Hall of Famer
Posts: 9794
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:56 pm

South Pender wrote:
Toppy Vann wrote: The entire global economy's direction will get settled we hope when this election is over and the USA deals with the fiscal cliff. The USA simply cannot afford another major war in the Middle East and Romney now has 17/24 foreign policy advisors that are former Bush neo-cons. Yikes.

Quite frankly I have never seen a GOP candidate so loose with the truth than Romney. His governor days of Mass was so poor that today he is not even contesting that state. Those in the know say he overstated his role in the Olympics mess taking all the credit far beyond his actual contribution.

Trickle down tax cuts don't create jobs. If you want to read a stunning piece Google Joseph Stiglitz and the Price of Inequality. The rich are getting richer at the expense of the US middle class.

Romney says gov't does not create jobs - he is right. But GOP is wrong to hate gov't as it has a role to play in creating conditions for business and personal success.
R&D and education are two major areas for gov't to play a role. Same as here in Canada and now I fear for youth as the costs of education are so high and not all the jobs today are good.
Although not a big Romney fan, I do think that the one file on which he would do better than Obama is the economy--in the larger sense--and the handling of the upcoming "fiscal cliff." Or maybe I should be more specific: Romney would be more likely to prevent the possibility of a second recession than would Obama. He'd do it at the expense of the middle and lower classes, however, by relying on spending cuts rather than greater revenue generation through taxes. I don't get the sense that he's a "compassionate conservative." As you say, Toppy, I doubt that he'd spend as much on education and educational accessibility as would Obama.

However, viewing this election from this side of the border, I suspect that Romney might be better for Canada. I'm not an economist, but it is certainly true that at least most of the readers of the National Post have this view. (I know, I know, the NP readership trends somewhat to the right.) Speaking purely pragmatically here, it doesn't necessarily help us in Canada to see more money in the pockets of the US lower and middle classes. They might buy more manufactured goods from us if they had more spending power, but I suspect that this would not be a big factor, with our exports of raw materials and resources being our main revenue-generator in our relationship with the US. And side-stepping another recession through tighter control of government spending would have huge benefits for Canadians, since, if another recession hits, we'll surely be dragged down into it despite our presently-stronger economy, which I believe (but many of you don't) is largely due to the stewardship of our federal Conservatives.

On the last paragraph, you are forgetting that the USA needs to get its housing market refuelled again as that is where we will benefit in lumber sales and consumers there will be benefit. The USA has been the greatest generator historically of business innovation and patents. This need R&D and Education and training. This is a serious for the USA and of course for us as when the elephant sneezes (USA) we got a cold. That is why our gov'ts at all levels are looking to new markets and China.

We will not be helped if he starts a war as he has 17/24 neocons there who got Bush fighting his wars. The USA must take $$$ and invest in their people.

Economy:

Agreed if you close your eyes and forget what is exactly happening in the USA and look to Mr. CEO (and ignore jobs losses in Mass, etc).
Here Are The Charts That Should Get Obama Reelected...
Henry Blodget | Oct. 14, 2012, 9:07 AM

This summer, Mike Norman, Chief Economist of John Thomas Financial, built a chartbook that shows 21 major market and economic indicators before and after President Obama was elected.

Obama rolled out his stimulus just after taking office. And as these charts clearly show, it worked.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/charts-t ... z29cCKI3PF
Obama's record, at least with respect to the economy, has been solid — especially relative to the economy of the prior adminstration (whose policies Romney wants to return to).

Before Obama took office, you will recall, the economy was in freefall, obliterated by tax cuts, runaway government spending, massive consumer debts, and regulation-be-damned culture of the prior administration.

As the attached charts show, the moment Obama arrived and implemented the stimulus, the economy began to improve. And it has gotten much, much better in the past four years.
Yes, it's true that economic growth has not been stellar and that unemployment is much too high. That's why we keep publishing "the chart that might get Obama fired," which shows the unemployment rate relative to his administration's early projections. But relative to the economy that Obama inherited, one that featured temporary debt-fueled "sugar-high" growth that ended in catastrophe, Obama's economic record has been good.[/quote]

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/charts-t ... z29cCWuDYd

He will do the cuts for the rich as it will trickle down in jobs for the lower echelons but that never worked with any GOP President!.


The WALL STREET JOURNAL - hardly a left wing publication - you can see he says one thing, then does another!
Eric Convey: Massachusetts Lessons About a President Romney

The state didn't raise taxes, but steps it took under Mr. Romney had the same effect on households and some business owners.

Local aid—essentially state income-tax receipts funneled to cities and towns based in part on need—was reduced substantially. Municipalities were left either to raise property taxes or cut spending. Many professionals were required to pay significantly more for their state licenses.

But some of the budget changes Mr. Romney championed have been overlooked or ignored by critics trying to portray him as a stooge for corporate interests. He aggressively attacked certain loopholes that businesses were exploiting; one of the effects was to make it much harder for Massachusetts corporations to reduce tax liabilities by registering trademarks in other states. His administration went after banks that were avoiding tax liabilities by putting assets in real-estate investment trusts. Some business leaders, especially in financial services, felt betrayed.
Massachusetts Officials Speak Out Against Romney’s Revisionist History
Wednesday, 17 October 2012 10:17 Press Release Commentary

http://www.enewspf.com/opinion/37496-ma ... story.html
"Ability without character will lose." - Marv Levy
User avatar
WestCoastJoe
Hall of Famer
Posts: 17721
Joined: Mon May 22, 2006 8:55 pm

At some point, actions speak louder than words ... but Mitt, with some help, will try to find more "elegant" ways to say things.

If Mitt wins, which seems like a distinct possibility, although the odds might still favour Obama, that will leave another mess for the next Democratic President, just as George W. Bush left for Obama (deficits, national debt, balance of payment problems, unemployment, lower taxes for the rich, more poor people, more people in jail for drug related crimes, bad image around the world, inflamed terrorists, two wars, injured service men and women not properly cared for, and on and on). Just IMO ... Hey, we do have opinions around here.

Not looking for a debate. And not trying to win anyone over. Does anyone really think anyone is going to change their opinion based on our discussions?
User avatar
Toppy Vann
Hall of Famer
Posts: 9794
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:56 pm

Funny cartoon.

I find it odd that in North America the Liberals and Democrats are fiscally conservative while the Conservatives who dropped Progressive from their name and the Republicans are profligate spenders.

I know from Bob Woodward's book where he was supposed to have got a lot of his inside info from George Stephanopolous that Clinton when his Treas. Sec'y Lloyd Bentsen had him meet with Greenspan got the message that if he was not going to balance budges there'd be no second term as he was warned that his deficit would be so great by 1996 he'd not win a second term. That book had Dems including Hilary complaining but they knew they had to be careful spenders or else.

Now the right wing get elected waving their Bibles and family values and promptly go to war all the while forgetting to ask "What would Jesus do." While I think he wouldn't be shooting, killing and fighting foreign wars when charity begins at home.
"Ability without character will lose." - Marv Levy
User avatar
Toppy Vann
Hall of Famer
Posts: 9794
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:56 pm

Toppy Vann wrote:Funny cartoon.

You won't change the minds of anyone but this is hilarious video shot some hours BEFORE the second debate and look at how many commented on how better Obama was and how the format was so much better. All stuff that had not been run on TV yet but ideas they had heard in the media. I don't think Canadians are any better either . Minds are made up and people will vote their prejudices and against their own interests as know in BC.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/10/17 ... -it-aired/

Jimmy Kimmel asks L.A. who won the debate hours before it aired — stumbles on group of time-travelling pundits

National Post Staff | Oct 17, 2012 4:56 PM ET |

I find it odd that in North America the Liberals and Democrats are fiscally conservative while the Conservatives who dropped Progressive from their name and the Republicans are profligate spenders.

I know from Bob Woodward's book where he was supposed to have got a lot of his inside info from George Stephanopolous that Clinton when his Treas. Sec'y Lloyd Bentsen had him meet with Greenspan got the message that if he was not going to balance budges there'd be no second term as he was warned that his deficit would be so great by 1996 he'd not win a second term. That book had Dems including Hilary complaining but they knew they had to be careful spenders or else.

Now the right wing get elected waving their Bibles and family values and promptly go to war all the while forgetting to ask "What would Jesus do." While I think he wouldn't be shooting, killing and fighting foreign wars when charity begins at home.
"Ability without character will lose." - Marv Levy
South Pender
Legend
Posts: 2779
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:24 am
Location: Vancouver weekdays; Gulf Islands on weekends

Toppy, a few comments.

1. Anyone can find books and articles to support their cause. This doesn't mean that their views are the right ones. For every smackdown of the right, I could find one that took the opposite position and quoted their "facts" to support it. It's a lot like expert witnesses in court proceedings. Each side lines up their expert witnesses, paid to say what helps their side, while the other side lines up theirs to provide "expert testimony" for them. In the end, it's a wash, and the judge and jury are left scratching their heads. (Having served as an expert witness, I could go on about this and the steps being taken in BC to lessen the severity of this problem, but that's grist for another mill.) Intelligent people can differ in their interpretation of social phenomena and even facts.

2. Although the Republicans and our Conservatives have, at times, spent too freely, it would be incorrect to now identify them as the parties of tax and spend. That (dis)honour still belongs to the left.

3. Although increased attention to and spending on education and access to higher education are worthy and important goals, they won't fix the economic problems in the short term. It seems to me that the greater urgency in the US at the moment is getting the economy fixed.

4. Romney would not lead the US into a true war in the Middle East--even with a few neo-cons still lurking in the corridors of Washington. Romney is a manager, not an ideologue, and understands the high political price of getting involved in another war.

5. Romney would, however, provide a stronger presence in the Middle East (although avoiding a US war) and would give the Israelis the backup they need to survive. He would, I think, bring much more credible opposition to Iran and would succeed in stopping them from having a military nuclear capability. Obama has been weak on this file, I believe, and I don't have complete confidence that he would be able to stop Iran from their nuclear goals. Thus, by a robust military presence there and stopping the central threat in the region, Romney would probably be more successful in preventing a war there.

6. I would say that the WSJ piece you gave paints a not completely unfavourable picture of Romney. The fact that he didn't implement prototypically conservative policies in Massachusetts shows him in a good light, in my opinion, and shows that he is, at heart, much closer to the middle than the far-right Tea Party wing of the party.

7. I agree that there is no hard empirical evidence that "trickle-down economics" works.

8. Although I don't really understand all (or even many) of the variables and dynamics of the US and world economies, it may be necessary for everyone now to sacrifice in order to save these economies. We've seen this graphically in Greece and now Spain, and the time may now have arrived for similar, albeit less severe, sacrifices in the US (and probably, to a lesser degree, Canada). This may well require hitting the middle and lower classes as well as (we would hope) the upper economic classes in the country. I think it's disingenuous for either candidate to claim that his policies will actually increase the economic circumstances for lower and middle class Americans while, at the same time, systematically reducing the deficit and ultimately getting it completely under control. However, I do think that, with respect to the latter (deficit reduction), Romney's policies will likely come closer to that goal.

9. Finally, I think that politics is far too complex for us to single out one candidate as completely "right" and the other as completely "wrong." The name-calling and caricaturing reinforces this simplistic view. In my opinion, both Obama and Romney are good and reasonable men. They have different views of what America stands for and what was intended by the founding fathers and the constitution. It is wrong, I believe, to see Republicans generally and Romney in particular as dummies "waving their Bibles and family values and promptly go[ing] to war all the while forgetting to ask 'What would Jesus do.'" Even though many on the very-far right might qualify, in general that's a caricature and would not play out in a Romney administration. I think that, in the final analysis, with the ludicrous (in my opinion) checks and balances provided by the legislative/executive/judicial branches of government in the US, the lives of Americans would be much more similar under the two presidents than is being suggested in the heated and extreme rhetoric of the campaign. We've seen, in the past four years, just how little of a president's agenda can actually be carried out when both houses of Congress are involved. Nothing extreme by either candidate is really in the cards, as each would have to steer to the centre to get anything passed.

As I've noted before, despite my comments above, if I were American, I'd probably vote for Obama, largely, I guess, because my heart would overrule my head. But it would be close. Obama has not really succeeded in general terms in his first term (although there have been a few limited successes), and I'm not at all sure that he'd really be the better choice.
User avatar
Toppy Vann
Hall of Famer
Posts: 9794
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:56 pm

South Pender.. on the war issue they said that about George Bush!!!

Like I said, people including Canadians vote their prejudices and even when they vote against in the interests.

Your posts are typical of a voter. He won't do a war. Yes, you can find what you want but I posted voters talking about and reviewing an event 4 hours before it happened and here you are ...lol.... saying that anyone can find that stuff.

Well he might not do a war as even some ex senior folks from Israeli spy groups say it would be insane to start in Iran or Syria.

Oh by the Jack Straw who got himself in Tony Blair's cabinet at the end of his desire to keep things calm in the Mid East knocked the US neo cons now and before just yesterday. He said the Bush people made matters far worse in the mid east.

Your post here makes the case as to how voters could put in place George Bush for two terms as this is how an average thinks.

It is the same in Canada. Scary.
"Ability without character will lose." - Marv Levy
South Pender
Legend
Posts: 2779
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:24 am
Location: Vancouver weekdays; Gulf Islands on weekends

Toppy Vann wrote:Like I said, people including Canadians vote their prejudices and even when they vote against in the interests.
I guess when what the other guy believes is different from what we believe it is a "prejudice," but when what he believes aligns nicely with our own views, it's careful and logical analysis! :wink:
Toppy Vann wrote: Your posts are typical of a voter. He won't do a war. Yes, you can find what you want but I posted voters talking about and reviewing an event 4 hours before it happened and here you are ...lol.... saying that anyone can find that stuff.
I don't get this. You'll need to explain this a little. The point I was making was that, just as you can summon up essays or books supporting your view, so can the other guys do exactly the same. So the fact that Stiglitz, or whoever it was, says that XYZ is true may be interesting, I guess, but it's hardly dispositive, since I could find you some equally-distinguished writer to say just the opposite if I were so inclined. Persons on the right would just say that all your references are wrong, just as you would say that about theirs. One thing that I think is regularly overlooked is that economics is a very inexact social science. Statistical models can be developed and applied to make the data say whatever the analyst wants them to. The fact that two guys like Paul Krugman and Arthur Laffer can look at exactly the same data and come to two diametrically-opposed conclusions is informative, I think. Who's right? Often we don't know for years.
Toppy Vann wrote:Your post here makes the case as to how voters could put in place George Bush for two terms as this is how an average thinks.
Again, I must confess I don't get your point here--what do you mean "how an average thinks"? Do you mean how the average person thinks--someone who doesn't know the issues? I don't recall the economy being seen at the time as George Bush's long suit. It is Romney's. As for "going to war," is it your contention that any Republican president would "go to war"? Democratic presidents Kennedy and later Johnson certainly didn't shy away from escalating the war in Vietnam. And I don't recall Republican president Reagan "going to war" (if we exclude the little police action in Grenada), nor did G.H.W. Bush. Were the neo-cons in hiding in those years? I would be extremely surprised if Romney "went to war" anywhere after the beating Bush has taken for Iraq, and, to a lesser degree, Afghanistan, along with the political hay Obama has made by promising to exit Afghanistan by the end of 2014. He's just far too politically tuned-in to do this. There is a difference in my mind between actually starting or engaging in an all-out war, on the one hand, and standing strongly behind an ally to prevent a war, on the other.
Toppy Vann wrote:It is the same in Canada. Scary.
What exactly is "scary"? Are we on the war theme here? If so, are you suggesting that Stephen Harper is likely to get Canada involved in a war? I really can't see this scenario. What strikes me as "scary" at the moment is the thought of the federal NDP or Liberal parties (in their present form) having much influence in federal affairs. I do think that a stabilized, policy-directed Liberal party could emerge at some point in the future, and this would constitute a salutary foil to the Conservatives, but, at the moment, I think that the Tories are really the only guys that can run this country and maintain a viable economy.
User avatar
Toppy Vann
Hall of Famer
Posts: 9794
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:56 pm

Check out what happened with Canada and tossing some $18 billion down that sink hole and that was just for fighting Taliban. The military under the Libs Paul Martin shifted the agreed mission from hunting for Bin Laden to fighting Taliban who can never be beaten. Yes, Stephen Harper gives me the same impression as does Gov. Romney. He gives me the impression he'd gladly fight Iran. The fighter jets the PM wants to be buy are attack jets. Experts from the USA say that is not right for Canada as we should be more on defense.

Voter Bias - not prejudices is a better word where voters vote their bias and against their interests and fail to hear the messages the politicians are REALLY delivering. This is quite historic and one can see the worst extreme in Germany where Hitler reigned as folks didn't believe he'd actually do what he did.

The easiest example is this. Voters in Canada and the USA will vote for someone who professes their faith in God yet practices policies that violate the "What would Jesus do?" question. George Bush loved my aunt and uncle - highly devout fundamentalists - but not my the sister (my mom nor dad) who while good Christians don't vote for people for those reasons but look to see has preferred policies.

The old adage that kept the Liberals in power for over 75 years mostly in Canada was among many older voters "Tory times are tough times." My father and mother -in-law voted the Libs for that reason for their whole lives!

What has happened in Canada and the USA is that candidates go for the sound bites that play into the biases of the electorate despite actually having policies that these same voters will be hurt by. Voters don't vote their self interests as you'd expect.

The pols use polls to find out what the public want to hear and they go to the message box and repeat until the folks get it. People love to vote the winner so they use the polls if undecided to be on the right side of history.

We are now looking for our grumpy candidate who talks like I think even if he is offering policies that harm my interests. Gays in right wing parties and gays voting right wing. Fundamentalist Christians vote for stingy people who would not help the poor. And on and on.

Voters in the west have fragmented along more narrow lines looking for the party that talks like we think rather than at the bigger policy picture.

That is how the right spends so much money in Canada and the USA. That is why our PM is allowing the Chinese to gobble up oil and gas deals which we should be alarmed about but give him a pass as he is conservative.
China Trade Deal a '31-Year Ball and Chain' on Canada
Expert says treaty gives Chinese corporations powers to override Canadians' self-determination.
By Andrew Nikiforuk, 19 Oct 2012, TheTyee.ca
China Investment Treaty: Expert Sounds Alarms in Letter to Harper
Toronto-based authority urges PM to halt ratification, laying out numerous 'deep' concerns.
By Gus Van Harten, 16 Oct 2012, TheTyee.ca

Gus Van Harten

Gus Van Harten is associate professor at Osgoode Hall Law School and author of Investment Treaty Arbitration and Public Law (Oxford University Press, 2007).
I am not flagging this as some sort of anti China person - I am opposite but is this deal a good deal for Canada. This is scary but silence from voters.

If voters didn't vote biases voters in the USA would elect Obama again in a romp as the lesser of two evils as they surely must know for the other guy to give the tax breaks he wants for all will be have to be paid by the masses at the bottom. Most voters are listening close and trust too much. Yet studies consistently show this to be wrong (see link). Romeny is committed to a tax deduction that costs $5 Trillion but has not said which loopholes they must close. He also said sort of casually the rich will not pay more as a % of total fed. inc. tax paid now. That means by logical extension someone else has to pay more. That is the Middle Class who now get a mortgage ded. etc.

His job projections (mitts) of 12 million have never been done and are being assailed as nice to have aspirations but this has never been done.

We might not have hit bottom yet in this fragile economy. Businesses are sitting on cash waiting. Not hiring. Not expanding. Waiting for the US to settle where they are going.

The US has undergone a massive structural change and those old manufacturing jobs are not coming back - not now, not ever. This means they must do what the USA has done best and that is innovate and create and the best folks to go down that path are the Dems now who want to move funds from war back home. Wow that would be great too for us.



The Myth of the Rational Voter
Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies
by Bryan Caplan
http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa594.pdf




Even placement on the ballot favours those listed on the top of the ballot. What does that tell you about voter bias. This is factual and the same in Canada:
ttp://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/04/opinion/04krosnick.html?_r=0
Op-Ed Contributor
In the Voting Booth, Bias Starts at the Top
By JON A. KROSNICK
Published: November 4, 2006

Candidates listed first on the ballot get about two percentage points more votes on average than they would have if they had been listed later (flipping a 49 to 51 defeat into a 51 to 49 victory). In fact, in about half the races I have studied, the advantage of first place is even bigger — certainly big enough to win some elections these days.

How do we know this? Well, consider this: In California’s 80 Assembly districts, candidate name order is randomly assigned. In 1996, Bill Clinton’s vote tally was 4 percentage points higher in the Assembly districts where he was listed first than in the ones where he was listed last — a difference that persisted even after we took into account pre-existing Democratic registration levels in the districts.
In 2000, George W. Bush’s vote tally was 9 percentage points higher in the districts where he was listed first than in the districts where he was listed last — again, persisting with registration taken into account.
"Ability without character will lose." - Marv Levy
South Pender
Legend
Posts: 2779
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:24 am
Location: Vancouver weekdays; Gulf Islands on weekends

Well,Toppy, voter bias works for your candidate as much as for Romney. And maybe it's a good thing for Obama, since his record in his first term has been weak. If the voters were to really analyze much of his performance and look hard at some of his policies and failed initiatives, he'd likely be in some trouble about now. He promised a lot--mainly a performance that would rise above the pettiness of politics as usual--but then what did he do? He blocked the Keystone pipeline for no reason other than politics as usual, in this case, placating his far-left base, but disadvantaging not only his own country, but also Canada. He kept his distance from Congress when the health-care debate was raging, thus failing to champion his own ideas with force. The result: a much watered-down bill that is in danger of being completely gutted. He snubbed and insulted Israel with his treatment of Netanyahu in Washington, leaving the situation with Iran more dangerous than it should be.

So, I don't think it's entirely true that those that are backing Romney are doing so from voter bias. Obama has given them plenty of real performance-based reasons to do this too!
South Pender
Legend
Posts: 2779
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:24 am
Location: Vancouver weekdays; Gulf Islands on weekends

Toppy Vann wrote:That is how the right spends so much money in Canada and the USA. That is why our PM is allowing the Chinese to gobble up oil and gas deals which we should be alarmed about but give him a pass as he is conservative.
Since more than 60% of Canadians dislike the Conservatives, it's hard to see Canada as a country giving Harper a pass on anything. Maybe these trade deals are actually going to be good for Canada. Maybe they will have enough restrictions and regulations in them to prevent any foreign power from "overrid[ing] Canadians' self-determination."

This takes me back to my earlier points: one can certainly find articles from credible experts to support or oppose any government policy. We would certainly expect any writer with liberal or socialist beliefs to beat on this China initiative. Essentially anything that the Harper Government does will be portrayed as bad--maybe even evil. That's the nature of politics and political writing, unfortunately. When is the last time that you heard either a Liberal or NDP politician praise, or just agree with, any policy, statement, or initiative by the Conservatives? Even when those other politicians would have done exactly the same thing had it been their decision. This is one reason why politicians are held in such low regard. It's as though they have a gene that prevents them from ever saying anything positive about the other guys, even in cases in which they would have had exactly the same view. Unfortunately, many political writers seem to have the same gene.

Perhaps I'm too cynical. However, every scientist I know has been trained to take any claim with a grain of salt until solid empirical evidence supports it. No decent scientist would take that claim about ballot position seriously without seeing the data and determining that they were revealing anything other than random chance--sampling error. Lots of loose "science" makes it into the popular press. No decent scientist would read the articles opposing the China deals without needing to see the opposite position, and the empirical evidence backing up each position. It's for this reason that I've stated that, for every article you produce in favour of X, I could find one opposing X. And none of them might be worth 2 cents.
Post Reply