CFL Scoring on the lowest pace since 1979

[sj-roc]

I think I am going to go a bit with the penalties and challenges.

The way I see it, there are penalties being called now that didn't exist or were substantively different 20 years ago. Many of these penalties are of the major variety. Horse collar tackles, Roughing the passer (hit to the head) and so on. Major penalties are occurring much more regularly it seems. 1 of those can most definitely kill a drive. We also have much less flow to the game with all the challenges. When a team is moving the ball, challenges to this call or that seem to stop the game in its tracks for several minutes thus giving the D more time to rest between plays, collect themselves when they are getting marched on and also disrupting the flow of the offenses. I particularly don't like the challenges for PI. A play is done then you have to wait and see if a team is going to throw yet another challenge flag before moving on to the next issue.

Now obviously this is being overly simplistic and one dimensional but the games certainly seem to lack some flow. I hope that it come back because I find it hard to watch some of the games that we have been served up (especially this year). The scores have been much more NFL than CFL and it seems we are doing well if we get 1 really good game out of 4 played on a weekend.

I'm not sure I agree that major fouls are killing offence more than they are helping it. Aren't most such calls against the defence and keep alive drives that would otherwise have stalled? Certainly I would put horse collar tackles and roughing the passer in this category. IMHO most of these recent rule changes have been made with a view to protecting the offensive stars and thereby enhancing the offensive aspect of the game.

[B.C.FAN]

I was only half paying attention but TSN's Kate McKenna said this past weekend that defensive scoring was up something like 66% over last season. Does anyone recall the exact figure that she mentioned? Anyway, that is further indication as to just how much defences are dominating this year. There doesn't seem to be a bad defence in the league this year either.

I don't know what Kate McKenna said but last week the league published a couple of stats showing the increase in defensive scoring.

1. There were 18 defensive TDs through the first 9 weeks in 2014 compared to just 7 at the same time last year.

2, Through Aug. 29, there were 165 touchdowns scored. Of those, 27 have come on return plays: 18 defensive, 8 kick returns, and another on a rare onside kick. That means that one in every SIX TDs is being scored in other ways
than offensively. Kick return TDs are up 30%, the average punt return up 17%

[sj-roc]

Of course, any comparison of offensive efficacy across different eras should control for scoring from defences and special teams (e.g., TDs on interceptions, fumbles, MFG/kick/punt returns, blocked kicks). If defences are truly dominant they will probably chip in a few scores of their own and tilt things even more out of whack. I don't have any hard data but I suspect there's more scoring on D today than in 1979, and with roster growth in the last 35 years affording use of more return specialists I'd be shocked if there weren't more ST scoring nowadays.

I was only half paying attention but TSN's Kate McKenna said this past weekend that defensive scoring was up something like 66% over last season. Does anyone recall the exact figure that she mentioned? Anyway, that is further indication as to just how much defences are dominating this year. There doesn't seem to be a bad defence in the league this year either.

I missed that entirely TBH; my comments on D & ST scoring were just based on my own first hand observations but that stat seems to support it. Kevin Glenn has thrown at least two picks that were returned for TDs. Ronnie Yell has an int TD return for BC. We gave up a punt return TD against Hamilton. Mtl returned a MFG for a TD against Ssk. Thomas DeMarco's punt was recovered by an onside Ott player for a major against Ssk. Edm's first TD on Labour Day was scored on a recovery of a blocked punt. These are all just off the top of my head; there are probably others from games I didn't even watch.

It would also be interesting to see how many offensive scores were set up by turnovers. For example, I forget the exact numbers but in their first game this season against Edm, Cgy scored the overwhelming majority of its points off turnovers (something like 20 of 26?).

[Lions4ever]

Way too many FLAGS killing offensive plays and momentum has resulted in lower scores

I have to agree. I've been a fan of this league for a long, long time but this season has been a real chore to watch far too often. It's testing my patience.

[B.C.FAN]

It would also be interesting to see how many offensive scores were set up by turnovers. For example, I forget the exact numbers but in their first game this season against Edm, Cgy scored the overwhelming majority of its points off turnovers (something like 20 of 26?).

Points off turnovers are actually down this year, along with overall scoring. Leaguewide, 25% of points scored have come off turnovers, down from 26% last year. Overall scoring is down 14% to 45.3 points per game from 52.4 points. Interestingly, net offence is down only 7% and rushing yardage is unchanged.

[sj-roc]

It would also be interesting to see how many offensive scores were set up by turnovers. For example, I forget the exact numbers but in their first game this season against Edm, Cgy scored the overwhelming majority of its points off turnovers (something like 20 of 26?).

Points off turnovers are actually down this year, along with overall scoring. Leaguewide, 25% of points scored have come off turnovers, down from 26% last year. Overall scoring is down 14% to 45.3 points per game from 52.4 points. Interestingly, net offence is down only 7% and rushing yardage is unchanged.

The difference of 25-26% is basically noise. Was last year's 26% through week 10 or full year? Either way it's not equal numbers of games with Ott back in the league this year.

With scoring down despite little change in offensive yardage, this suggests that turnovers are up and/or teams are starting with worse field position on average. A 57yd drive that would have scored a TD last year might have stalled for a short FG this year.

I wouldn't think the % change in scoring correlates all that well to the change in offensive yardage anyway. To take it to an extreme, suppose every TD drive this year had instead stalled at the 5 yard line. This would drop scoring on offence by more than 50% per drive but I don't think the yardage would plummet by as large a percentage.

[South Pender]

I wouldn't think the % change in scoring correlates all that well to the change in offensive yardage anyway. To take it to an extreme, suppose every TD drive this year had instead stalled at the 5 yard line. This would drop scoring on offence by more than 50% per drive but I don't think the yardage would plummet by as large a percentage.

You don't mean that points scored and offensive yardage are uncorrelated, do you? These two would be highly correlated in the CFL, I'm sure. If we take NFL data, for example, the two correlate about .66 (which is highly significant) over the past 50 years.

[Sir Purrcival]

I think I am going to go a bit with the penalties and challenges.

The way I see it, there are penalties being called now that didn't exist or were substantively different 20 years ago. Many of these penalties are of the major variety. Horse collar tackles, Roughing the passer (hit to the head) and so on. Major penalties are occurring much more regularly it seems. 1 of those can most definitely kill a drive. We also have much less flow to the game with all the challenges. When a team is moving the ball, challenges to this call or that seem to stop the game in its tracks for several minutes thus giving the D more time to rest between plays, collect themselves when they are getting marched on and also disrupting the flow of the offenses. I particularly don't like the challenges for PI. A play is done then you have to wait and see if a team is going to throw yet another challenge flag before moving on to the next issue.

Now obviously this is being overly simplistic and one dimensional but the games certainly seem to lack some flow. I hope that it come back because I find it hard to watch some of the games that we have been served up (especially this year). The scores have been much more NFL than CFL and it seems we are doing well if we get 1 really good game out of 4 played on a weekend.

I'm not sure I agree that major fouls are killing offence more than they are helping it. Aren't most such calls against the defence and keep alive drives that would otherwise have stalled? Certainly I would put horse collar tackles and roughing the passer in this category. IMHO most of these recent rule changes have been made with a view to protecting the offensive stars and thereby enhancing the offensive aspect of the game.

Your right about the defensive penalties but we are also seeing lots of holding, chop block, offsides and a slew of conduct type penalites which can go either way; It seems like there are penalties or challenge every 2 or 3 plays. It is about flow of game stuff. When you get on roll and then everything stops while the Refs spend two or three minutes deciding on whether a play will stand; was the receiver was in bounds, was it a catch or etc. etc. It seems really slow and broken up to me as a viewer and it must be disconcerting for the players as well. It has almost gotten to the stage that after every play, I look for a flag of one sort or another which makes it really hard to be enjoy the play as it is happening. I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop and it hasn't helped. It isn't the whole answer I know but it is my opinion that the choppiness of the games has contributed a lack of flow and a disruption of momentum.

[sj-roc]

I wouldn't think the % change in scoring correlates all that well to the change in offensive yardage anyway. To take it to an extreme, suppose every TD drive this year had instead stalled at the 5 yard line. This would drop scoring on offence by more than 50% per drive but I don't think the yardage would plummet by as large a percentage.

You don't mean that points scored and offensive yardage are uncorrelated, do you? These two would be highly correlated in the CFL, I'm sure. If we take NFL data, for example, the two correlate about .66 (which is highly significant) over the past 50 years.

What I mean is that they are not necessarily strongly correlated and I gave a reductio ad adsurdum counterexample. There's no reason to suppose that X% change in offensive yardage will change scoring by X% or even anything close to X%. Broadly speaking, yes, I suppose more offensive yardage might translate into more scoring but this would be a highly qualitative statement without much quantitative value once you actually look at the numbers. In principle it's possible to have more scoring with less yardage if D & ST are constantly giving great field position. In fact you'd expect more scoring if you have great FP, a scenario where you stand to gain (only need) little yardage.

[ziggy]

Probably a combination of things but look at the injuries to and loss of marquee players and change. Lulay , Cornish and Collaros missed a lot of games. Calvillo gone with no heir apparent. Drew Willey , Bo Levi Mitchell both relatively new. I know its a team game but still I'm not too surprised scoring has dropped off given the changes. Agree with those who are finding things a little slow this year and hope it picks up

[sj-roc]

I think I am going to go a bit with the penalties and challenges.

The way I see it, there are penalties being called now that didn't exist or were substantively different 20 years ago. Many of these penalties are of the major variety. Horse collar tackles, Roughing the passer (hit to the head) and so on. Major penalties are occurring much more regularly it seems. 1 of those can most definitely kill a drive. We also have much less flow to the game with all the challenges. When a team is moving the ball, challenges to this call or that seem to stop the game in its tracks for several minutes thus giving the D more time to rest between plays, collect themselves when they are getting marched on and also disrupting the flow of the offenses. I particularly don't like the challenges for PI. A play is done then you have to wait and see if a team is going to throw yet another challenge flag before moving on to the next issue.

Now obviously this is being overly simplistic and one dimensional but the games certainly seem to lack some flow. I hope that it come back because I find it hard to watch some of the games that we have been served up (especially this year). The scores have been much more NFL than CFL and it seems we are doing well if we get 1 really good game out of 4 played on a weekend.

I'm not sure I agree that major fouls are killing offence more than they are helping it. Aren't most such calls against the defence and keep alive drives that would otherwise have stalled? Certainly I would put horse collar tackles and roughing the passer in this category. IMHO most of these recent rule changes have been made with a view to protecting the offensive stars and thereby enhancing the offensive aspect of the game.

Your right about the defensive penalties but we are also seeing lots of holding, chop block, offsides and a slew of conduct type penalites which can go either way; It seems like there are penalties or challenge every 2 or 3 plays. It is about flow of game stuff. When you get on roll and then everything stops while the Refs spend two or three minutes deciding on whether a play will stand; was the receiver was in bounds, was it a catch or etc. etc. It seems really slow and broken up to me as a viewer and it must be disconcerting for the players as well. It has almost gotten to the stage that after every play, I look for a flag of one sort or another which makes it really hard to be enjoy the play as it is happening. I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop and it hasn't helped. It isn't the whole answer I know but it is my opinion that the choppiness of the games has contributed a lack of flow and a disruption of momentum.

Ok, so you're talking about the broader issue of games not being as entertaining overall. I was thinking strictly in the context of decreased scoring since this thread started out on that angle. In the more general context I agree with your comments about how gameflow is getting disrupted this year. TBH I can't even imagine anyone disagreeing.

[South Pender]

I wouldn't think the % change in scoring correlates all that well to the change in offensive yardage anyway. To take it to an extreme, suppose every TD drive this year had instead stalled at the 5 yard line. This would drop scoring on offence by more than 50% per drive but I don't think the yardage would plummet by as large a percentage.

You don't mean that points scored and offensive yardage are uncorrelated, do you? These two would be highly correlated in the CFL, I'm sure. If we take NFL data, for example, the two correlate about .66 (which is highly significant) over the past 50 years.

What I mean is that they are not necessarily strongly correlated and I gave a reductio ad adsurdum counterexample. There's no reason to suppose that X% change in offensive yardage will change scoring by X% or even anything close to X%.

Well, we may have to disagree mildly on this. The two are strongly correlated (assuming CFL data--which I couldn't find--resembles NFL data in this regard), and this does mean that we should expect an X% increase in offensive production to be accompanied by a Y% increase in total points scored. You have quite correctly pointed to occurrences that run counter to the trend, but that's in the nature of (imperfect) correlation. Although adult height and weight probably correlate approximately the same (.66), we can easily find a 6'-6" guy who weights 150 lbs. and a 5'-5" guy weighing 275 lbs. Still, our expectation would be for a 6'-5" person to weigh more than a 5'-5" one.

[B.C.FAN]

Penalties are up sharply this year, and that interrupts game flow, yet the average length of games has increased by only a
minute to 2:56, and that can be explained by an extra minute of TV commercials added this year with the new TSN contract.

[sj-roc]

You don't mean that points scored and offensive yardage are uncorrelated, do you? These two would be highly correlated in the CFL, I'm sure. If we take NFL data, for example, the two correlate about .66 (which is highly significant) over the past 50 years.

What I mean is that they are not necessarily strongly correlated and I gave a reductio ad adsurdum counterexample. There's no reason to suppose that X% change in offensive yardage will change scoring by X% or even anything close to X%.

Well, we may have to disagree mildly on this. The two are strongly correlated (assuming CFL data--which I couldn't find--resembles NFL data in this regard), and this does mean that we should expect an X% increase in offensive production to be accompanied by a Y% increase in total points scored. You have quite correctly pointed to occurrences that run counter to the trend, but that's in the nature of (imperfect) correlation. Although adult height and weight probably correlate approximately the same (.66), we can easily find a 6'-6" guy who weights 150 lbs. and a 5'-5" guy weighing 275 lbs. Still, our expectation would be for a 6'-5" person to weigh more than a 5'-5" one.

I'm not arguing about +X% —> +Y%. I'm only arguing about X% and X%. The impetus for my initial comment was BC Fan's comment that "Overall scoring is down 14% to 45.3 points per game from 52.4 points. Interestingly, net offence is down only 7%...". Whether this wording was his or from another source, it implies to me — whether or not it was so intended — that a 14% scoring decrease ought to have originated from a similar decrease in offensive production, but this need not be the case as I asserted. You've framed the point as X and Y, not X and X as I had done, which is fine and actually commensurate with my point — it's a Y, not another X, and it's tough to pin down anything about Y other than it has the same sign as X; as you note it's the nature of correlation. Yeah, so they both went down. Big deal. If the NFL in 2014 sees an offensive yardage increase of say, 15%, would the last 50 years of stats tell you anything about how many more points (not just THAT there will be more) this translates into? I suppose the historical data might allow you to put a reasonable 95% confidence interval on it.

Perhaps I should clarify that I'm not using any strict mathematical definition of "strong" correlation specifically (is there one? is, say |CC|> 0.5 formally labelled as a "strong" correlation?), merely a qualitative one.

[sj-roc]

Penalties are up sharply this year, and that interrupts game flow, yet the average length of games has increased by only a
minute to 2:56, and that can be explained by an extra minute of TV commercials added this year with the new TSN contract.

Interesting. Do you have any sort of team-by-team breakdown on this?

I distinctly recall a Lions home game this year that wrapped at something like 9:50 or 9:51pm (from a 7pm kickoff, I think it was the one vs Wpg). The early finish really stood out to me as far below average, for BCP anyway.