CFL Regular Season

[sj-roc]

Burris's pass is deflected at the line into the hands of Terrell Maze with 4mins left.

[SammyGreene]

About to be 4 points back of Ottawa with schedule for the next 4 weeks:

(3-5) B.C. — @ Montreal, Ottawa, @ Calgary, @ Edmonton

(5-4) Ottawa — bye, @ BC, @ Saskatchewan, Toronto

Lions could be in a heap of trouble before it's even October.

[sj-roc]

1st & goal @1YL and they're looking to pass only to get sacked for a 15yd loss? No wonder this is an 0-9 team.

Sacked again and they fail on the 3rd & goal gamble from the 23. Ott takes over with under a minute left.

Make the final 35-13 Ott.

[sj-roc]

About to be 4 points back of Ottawa with schedule for the next 4 weeks:

B.C. — @ Montreal, Ottawa, @ Calgary, @ Edmonton

Ottawa — bye, @ BC, @ Saskatchewan, Toronto

Lions could be in a heap of trouble before it's even October.

Mtl as the current crossover prospect is a bigger concern than Ott for us right now although there will be some jockeying between them in the next month or so. Their next four weeks are fairly soft:

Mtl — BC, bye, Wpg, @Ssk

So we could be in a heap of trouble even before Labour Day weekend is officially here. Our next two games are HUGE.

Let's see how we match up with that "not talented whatsoever" team on Thursday. If we lose and find ourselves 4pts out of a playoff berth, how big a crowd can we expect for a Sunday afternoon game against Ott?

[VictoriaFan]

Feel sorry for Sask. they seem to be in implode mode. Was there any run plays in the second half? Tino was getting crushed on every pass play.

[sj-roc]

Here's an interesting site with some detailed playoff calculations, sorry if this has been mentioned before: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/football/Canada/CFL.html

I see it ranks BC as currently only 21.2% probable to make the playoffs, slightly behind Wpg at 23.3% and well back of Mtl and Ott who are both over 70%. So this means the E->W crossover is already quite likely according to their algorithm, which does not treat every remaining game as a simple coin flip but (somehow based on recent past data) assigns weighted odds to each one. OTOH if you treat every game as a coin flip, it puts Wpg 38.0%, BC 46.2%, Mtl 60.4%, Ott 72.2%. That our weighted odds grade out considerably worse than the coin flip scenario is likely a reflection of our sub-.500 record and two of our wins coming against winless Ssk.

If Ott wins, ties or loses vs Ssk tomorrow, then our chances go to 20.5% (down 0.7%), 22.5% (up 1.3%) or 24.8% (up 3.6%) respectively in the non-coin flip scenario (there are prob similar shifts in the coin flip scenario but I haven't checked since I consider these weighted numbers more realistic). As I said a Ssk sweep of their next three would help us (as long as we too win ourselves!) and winning this first one over Ott would be the first step toward that as these changes show.

I took another look at that link after today's game to see where things are now and it lists BC as 18.7% playoff-probable and Mtl at 71.8%. That differs from the 20.5% I mentioned last night; not sure if I misinterpreted the numbers, or if they come from a different finite set of simulations, or if the weightings for the remaining games get updated with the completion of each game to reflect the ongoing competitive dynamics. Prob the last one.

I've already mentioned how big our Mtl game is on Thu and it seems this site agrees. Reading how things shift after this game the same way I read for the Ott game in my other post:

• if we win: BC, 18.7% —> 34.2%; Mtl, 71.8% —> 54.1%
• if we tie: BC, 18.7% —> 17.5%; Mtl, 71.8% —> 74.5%
• if we lose: BC, 18.7% —> 9.0%; Mtl, 71.8% —> 82.9%

So a win represents nearly a fourfold better chance of making the playoffs over losing. Which makes sense to me; it's the difference between winning to gain the berth — and having to rag the puck the rest of the season so to speak, which still won't be easy as the 34.2% is still rather low — and losing and then having to dig out of a 4pt hole.

[sj-roc]

Feel sorry for Sask. they seem to be in implode mode. Was there any run plays in the second half? Tino was getting crushed on every pass play.

Can't we just selfishly bemoan how Ssk's loss negatively impacts our own playoff hopes without caring about their current state of pigskin squalor?

[DanoT]

Feel sorry for Sask. they seem to be in implode mode. Was there any run plays in the second half? Tino was getting crushed on every pass play.

Can't we just selfishly bemoan how Ssk's loss negatively impacts our own playoff hopes without caring about their current state of pigskin squalor?

Looks like Chaps is back to his old rut, forgetting to call running plays and not sticking with what is working. OTOH he is a better play caller and has a better play book than Cortez.

[TheLionKing]

1st and goal and you have Jerome Messam in your backfield. Whatcha going to call ? A pass of course. Way to fool them Chaps.

[Toppy Vann]

1st and goal and you have Jerome Messam in your backfield. Whatcha going to call ? A pass of course. Way to fool them Chaps.

There is just something that is bizarre about the arrogance of coaching in the CFL when coaches like Chapdelaine falls into that situation.

Why when you have these guys who can rip off large chunks of yards do they choose to ignore the person?
What is equally bizarre is that when the offensive line opens holes and a back makes huge gains just how uplifting this is to a team and how much it then opens the defense up to be beat on the pass. Just pass blocking is both uninspiring over 6 min as much as it gets harder when they know you won't run on them.

Where did I read recently that the Lions QB Danny McManus would call a run play and if it worked he'd call it to the other side. Then he'd pass if he got stopped. My football coach Larry Reda - just entered into the CFL HOF would do the same. It'd fire up the team and really get the offensive line into the game versus a pure pass happy play caller.

Calgary has had moments where they had to get the younger Jon Cornish to see the bigger picture but you don't get their OC or HC in ruts of play calling where fans and media are on them for anything but execution. They seem to want to find the plays the QB they have in there. That is why Kevin Glenn was there so successfully. It was all about what can our QB execute and give it to him.


TOM HiGGINS:

Speaking of former HC's I keep looking and waiting for comments from either Tom Higgins or his daughter (she ripped the CFL IIRC the time he got fired from his role there). What is it with Higgins and seemingly unjust firings? I suspect he feels shocked and angry and doesn't want to burn bridges. As someone who understands how organizations work at the top and who is pretty good at predicting whose going to be fired I find it odd that Higgins didn't see this coming as it seems he got into a few situations where they disagreed on who to sit and who to play. That is a recipe for a firing when you cross your boss.

CORY CHAMBLIN:

Does this guy have photos of the entire upper echelon of the Riders ? How can he keep his job after the debacle and benching of Brett Smith for Sunseri who took the momo out of any momentum they had generated? His team is not disciplined and he's in the media arrogantly bragging he doesn't worry about his job. His comments are pretty weird given his lack of success and his lousy leadership.

I had to laugh at this Rob Vanstone end of column:

Chamblin has previously been endorsed in this space but, after Sunday’s shellacking, he is impossible to defend — unlike the Roughriders’ offence with Sunseri at the controls.

The 0-9 record is ghastly enough. But Tino-and-9? Chamblin has to wear that decision, and whatever consequences may ensue.

An early gem in the same column:

And speaking of jokes, how many “L’s” are there in “Chamblin’’? Eighteen of them, at this rate, according to a valued reader named John.

This is what the Roughriders have become under Chamblin — a punch line.

http://www.leaderpost.com/sports/footba ... story.html

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[sj-roc]

An early gem in the same column:

And speaking of jokes, how many “L’s” are there in “Chamblin’’? Eighteen of them, at this rate, according to a valued reader named John.

This is what the Roughriders have become under Chamblin — a punch line.

http://www.leaderpost.com/sports/footba ... story.html

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Fun fact: the Saskatchewan Roughriders have more Ws in their name than in their 0-9 record.

[sj-roc]

CORY CHAMBLIN:

Does this guy have photos of the entire upper echelon of the Riders ? How can he keep his job after the debacle and benching of Brett Smith for Sunseri who took the momo out of any momentum they had generated? His team is not disciplined and he's in the media arrogantly bragging he doesn't worry about his job. His comments are pretty weird given his lack of success and his lousy leadership.

Well I guess he's made his last boast as per the nascent thread from Coast Mountain Lion that both he and Brendan Taman have just been axed this evening.

[BC 1988]

Back when SSK was 0-3, I thought they would have to go 0-6 or 1-9 before Chamblin was in danger. They decided to do a clean sweep at 0-9.

[sj-roc]

Sunseri is brutal. Plays in slow mo... holds the ball weak. Not a leader.

I think you've got your Conservative memes mixed up, Toppy; it's not that he's not a leader, but rather he's Just Not Ready.

[video][/video]

[sj-roc]

I guess the Riders must have seen that Sunseri video I posted this morning; he's been cut.

http://www.cfl.ca/article/reynolds-the- ... re#Sunseri

Riders cut quarterback Sunseri

The team announced on Monday that they have released quarterback Tino Sunseri.

The three-year veteran was originally cut by the team at the end of the pre-season but was brought back following the injuries to Darian Durant and Kevin Glenn. He appeared in two games this season, most notably in Sunday's loss to the REDBLACKS after Brett Smith was benched.

There has been no indication of how the team will fill its third quarterback slot. Smith has been confirmed as the starter for Mark's Labour Day Weekend while Keith Price remains on the active roster. Blake Sims is on the practice roster.