Leos/Bombers West Final Keys to the Game

[Toppy Vann]

I'm banking on Vernon Adams coming fully focused on the game and hopefully not ever thinking back to his prior playoff game as he no longer is that same QB.
It's when he is distracted by the past game or past play he gets off his game.

I'm 100% confident that the Bombers will adjust to make sure VA can't run effectively. The question is if this keeps Adam Bighill at home more. I've said before that in Bombers games where Bighill is on pass coverage more in TV shots, the other side is generally more able to mix it up and move the ball downfield with some runs. Not disparaging Adam's play.

I'm 100% confident that the Lions' run philosophy and run calls would make most backs like ordinary. IF I caught it correctly, the Lions asked for a player to interview with Global's Barry Deley and Taquan Mizzell got off the charter sitting on the runway. He's a good interview. Hope he has a break out game.


This TSN clip intersperses Ryan Dinwiddie and Chad Kelly discussing Montreal's defense where Dinwiddie lays it out why he wants their run game established early. It's detailed. This clip is a bit funny as Kelly keeps looking over to the right as if someone off-screen doesn't want him to invite Noel Thorpe to 'bring it all day' like he did after beating the Als earlier in the season.

Where it differs from BC in my view is BC calls a run play but does not try to establish a run game. Who else establishes a run game no doubt for similar reasons to the Argos? The Bombers!

A different article on playing the Als this game:

“If it’s going to be a second-and-long game and we’re throwing it, they’re going to have all kinds of different pressures and coverages,” Dinwiddie said. “If we can run the football we can kind of dictate what they do on defence.

My point on the CFL and the run game is this:

1. The two top teams in the CFL over 18 games are the Argos and Bombers. Both have great passing QBS and BOTH run the football effectively as a part of their philosophy.

2. Teams that can run and pass are more fun to watch.

3. Live by the pass alone, you can die that way.

Dinwiddie may have got most of his best CFL coaching experience in Calgary with Hufnagel and Dave Dickenson but that's not what he said was his model a year or so back at CFL Meeting I think it was. Dinwiddie's model is the Bombers as he said himself.

Right now Riders are looking for a new HC and always the pressure is to hire the guy who can win right now.
Given Dinwiddie won right away as a HC and O'Shea was able to keep his job despite losing to start.
My take: Maybe Dinwiddie just worked at building his team/organization like O'Sheas when Bombers were winning is what you want a HC to build if you are hiring.

In that model, you'd avoid the gypsies like Chris Jones and maybe even Scott Milanovich.

https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/video/kelly-does ... me~2805266

[Blitz]

“If it’s going to be a second-and-long game and we’re throwing it, they’re going to have all kinds of different pressures and coverages,” Dinwiddie said. “If we can run the football we can kind of dictate what they do on defence.

My point on the CFL and the run game is this:

1. The two top teams in the CFL over 18 games are the Argos and Bombers. Both have great passing QBS and BOTH run the football effectively as a part of their philosophy.

2. Teams that can run and pass are more fun to watch.

3. Live by the pass alone, you can die that way.

Well, Toppy, our Leos go into this contest with the worst run game in the CFL and they certainly are not changing anything personnel wise and likely not scheme wise either. Why change anything when you are the worst at something?

According to the Winnipeg Sun, the Bombers have the edge for this game due to their offence, their defense. and the intangibles. B.C. got the edge for special teams play, which is interesting because an O'Shea coached team usually has excellent special teams play..


THE EDGE - Winnipeg Sun

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers will face the B.C. Lions in the CFL West final on Saturday at IG Field (5:30 p.m. TSN, CJOB Radio).
Here’s a look at which team has the edge on offence, defence, special teams and in some of the intangibles,


OFFENCE

The Bombers have the best ground game (139.1 yards per game) in the CFL, by far, have scored the most points (33 per game) and have put up the most net yards (414.4 per game) of any team. They are also second in passing (292.4 yards per game), with two-time Most Outstanding Player Zach Collaros at the controls. This is an offensive juggernaut.

While the Lions do have the most potent passing attack in the league (315.1 yards per game), an excellent quarterback in Vernon Adams, and a host of great receivers, they have the worst rushing game in the league (just 77.3 yards per game).

EDGE: Bombers

DEFENCE

Winnipeg leads B.C. in almost every important defensive category. The Bombers are No. 1 in the league in points allowed (20.9 per game), opposition net yards (298.8), opposition pass yards (229.4), opposition touchdowns (35) and opposition passing touchdowns (12). The Lions have the edge in quarterback sacks (55 to 53), behind the record of 18 by Canadian Mathieu Betts.

B.C. is fourth in points allowed (24.4), second in opposition net offence (328.8), fourth in opposition rush yards (99.3), fourth in opposition pass yards (251.7), fourth in opposition touchdowns (43) and third in opposition pass TDs (20). Winnipeg also has a big edge in turnover ratio, at plus-8, while the Lions are minus-12. This is a closer matchup than the numbers suggest, but Winnipeg still comes out on top in most areas.

EDGE: Bombers

SPECIAL TEAMS
This has been a problem area for the Bombers all season. With return specialist Janarion Grant missing 10 games, the Bombers dropped to eighth in kickoff return average (20.0) and sixth in punt returns (11.1), while the Lions, and their speedy returner Terry Williams, are third in kickoff returns (22.1) and fifth in punt returns (11.2). Where Winnipeg has really struggled is on kick return coverage, finishing the season in eighth place in both kickoff (24.8) and punt returns (13.2).

The Lions had a big edge in that area, and also have the league’s best kicker in Sean Whyte (94.3%), slightly better than the 90.2% put up by Bombers’ kicker Sergio Castillo. B.C.’s punter, Stefan Flintoft, also out-kicked Winnipeg’s Jamieson Sheahan during the regular season.

THE EDGE: Lions

INTANGIBLES

Winnipeg is expecting another crowd of over 30,000 and they play extremely well in front of their home fans. They have not lost a playoff game at home since 2017 (West semifinal) and are 26-2 at home, including playoffs, over the last three seasons.
Though it’s not supposed to be exceptionally cold for Saturday’s game (high of -1 C, low of -3 C), the Bombers also excel when the temperatures drop, and the Lions are a team that plays in a domed stadium, in a much warmer climate. Home teams have won the last seven CFL playoff games. The Bombers have not lost a division final at home in 29 years, dating back to 1994, and have won four over that span.

[Blitz]

Well, since our Leos decided to start Tiquon 'Smoke' Mizzell, even after his incredibly dismal rushing against the Stamps, I decided to go out and buy a smoke machine to make extra smoke for "Smoke" himself. If the adage, where this is smoke there is fire, well i guess the issue is that there has not been enough smoke to create the fire.

I'm sending the smoke in a box for Smoke to inhale before going out on each series. With any luck there will be a fire under his butt in terms of finding an open hole in the Bombers D line.

Earlier this week I posted that CFL Simulator had given our Leos only about an 8% chance to beat the Bombers. Seems like our Leos team has now seen those odds and are commenting on them.

No disrespect to Hladk, but I'm so happy that Bo Lokombo will start in this contest, with Woods moving into the middle. I think it gives us our best linebacker tandem for the Bombers style of rush.

Bo says (or said)

Lokombo says the oddsmakers’ labels won’t matter. And until they dethrone the winners of three straight West titles, that respect won’t come. The Bombers, it should be noted, won the first of their two straight Cups (2019 and 2021) after finishing third in the West.

“For a game like this it doesn’t matter,” said the Lions’ linebacker. “I can understand why we’re (underdogs). We’re playing in Winnipeg; it’s cold, it’s a tough place to win, they’ve been the top dog — but none of that matters.

“You’ve got to earn that respect (of being favourites). Props to them to everything they’re doing. We do respect them. But we have to prove that we are in that category, and I feel like we are. We’re a very good team, we’ve had a good year and we’re just ready for battle, man. We’re ready for them.”

[David]

We shall see if the Leos' 3 biggest problem areas all season will be our demise for the 2023 season.

* Lack of a run game.
* Lack of consistent run stop.
* Lack of discipline.

It's possible that we can pass our way out of trouble so the run game becomes less important.

It's possible too that we contain (read: not eliminate) the always dangerous Oliveira, much like we did Ka'Deem Carey who, apart from one 20-yard scamper, was held in check.

It's possible that we don't shoot ourselves in the foot with silly penalties that extend drives for the opposition. Breaks and benefits of the doubt always seem to go the Bombers' way though, so we shall see.

Can't wait for Saturday. Go Leos!

(on a side note, does the CFL brass really think it's a good idea to schedule its Division Championship head-to-head with Hockey Night In Canada? It's going to get killed in TV ratings. Would they really prefer to go up against Canucks at Leafs on CBC rather than Jets at Raiders on Sunday night?? In future, put that game on TSN and the West Final on CTV - or vice-versa if they must).


DH

[SammyGreene]

Game day!!!!

Latest forecast is showing a near balmy 0 C around kickoff but wind could be a factor with a steady 20 km/h breeze and gusts up to 40 km/h. How much will it impact throwing the ball?

[Blitz]

SammyGreene

Game day!!!!

Latest forecast is showing a near balmy 0 C around kickoff but wind could be a factor with a steady 20 km/h breeze and gusts up to 40 km/h. How much will it impact throwing the ball?

Hard to know Sammy. But when a team mostly relies on a passing attack, these kinds of factors - wind, cold, the complete reliance on quarterback play etc. are more important than when a team has a more balanced offence.

[PGSSS74]

Sigh. I now look forward to seeing Mizzell run up to a Winnipeg defender, alternate lifting his left and right cleats four times, then falling to the ground with the defender on top of him. 12 carries, 12 yards. You read it here first.

[David]

The Lions should "spy" Bighill by having a blocker on him on almost every play.

No more than the Bombers should spy Lokombo. Really don't see Bighill and his 74 tackles as a threat anymore. More often than not he gets washed out by bigger linemen and, apart from that one play last game when he got a good angle on VA, has slowed IMO.


DH

[Blitz]

PGSSS74

Sigh. I now look forward to seeing Mizzell run up to a Winnipeg defender, alternate lifting his left and right cleats four times, then falling to the ground with the defender on top of him. 12 carries, 12 yards. You read it here first.

Smoke in the backfield
Fire in the sky
Smoke in the backfield

(Deep Purple never sang this)

How you are not able to get into the second level of a defense, against a three man offensive line that is hell bent on pass rushing Adams is beyond me. In the inside zone read both the guard and the center are blocking the nose tackle, the other guard and tackle are blocking the defensive end. There has to be a hole on the front side of the play and the cut back has to be wide open if the weakside defensive end to the play stays outside. If he doesn't, the cutback just has to be sharper.

I cannot get my head around the fact that Mizzell was given 9 carries inside to exploit the Calgary defensive line and one attempt on a Wildcat. The 11th running play was an option play with Adams pitching to Mizzell outside.

Mizzell had one run of 8 yards. For his other 10 carries he averaged 1.7 yds. per carry.

But here we are close to game time so all we can do is hope Mizzell has a special game or our passing game is so great that our running game does not have to be much of a factor. Its a challenging task for sure.

On defense, I anticipate two things by the Bombers offence other than wanting to run the football and use a lot of play action too. I see them picking on Mike Jones and I also see them attempting to exploit our zone behind the linebackers inside, if our linebackers are having to play run too much.

That is where having a good running game is an asset. The linebackers have to crowd up and focus on run first to attempt to stop it and play action freezes them and allows the receivers to have more room to roam behind the linebackers who are late getting into their drops.

Just as a I wrote against Calgary, getting down too much early to the Bombers plays into the strenght of their style of play. Playing with a lead makes it much tougher for them to do what they like to do.

Win or lose, I will accept it as long as our Leos play hard and smart. The Bombers are a veteran, talented team. While most experts believe our lack of offensive balance is our greatest detriment for this West Final, I believe our Leos can beat the Bombers anyway, as long as our defense can do its job.

Go Leos!!

[Blitz]

PGSSS74

Sigh. I now look forward to seeing Mizzell run up to a Winnipeg defender, alternate lifting his left and right cleats four times, then falling to the ground with the defender on top of him. 12 carries, 12 yards. You read it here first.
PGSSS74

Smoke in the backfield
Fire in the sky
Smoke in the backfield

(Deep Purple never sang this)

How a tailback is not able to get into the second level of a defense, against Calgarys' three man defensive line that is hell bent on pass rushing Adams is beyond me. In the inside zone read both the guard and the center are blocking the nose tackle, the other guard and tackle are blocking the defensive end. There has to be a hole on the front side of the play and the cut back has to be wide open if the weakside defensive end to the play stays outside. If he doesn't, the cutback just has to be sharper.

I cannot get my head around the fact that Mizzell was given 9 carries inside to exploit the Calgary defensive line and one attempt on a Wildcat. The 11th running play was an option play with Adams pitching to Mizzell outside.

Mizzell had one run of 8 yards. For his other 10 carries he averaged 1.7 yds. per carry.

Supposedly one of the advantages of spreading out recievers and going with an ace tailback who is quick is that the spread gets rid of a lot of defenders out of the box, providing more room for the tailback to run once getting past the first level.

But here we are close to game time so all we can do is hope Mizzell has a special game or our passing game is so great that our running game does not have to be much of a factor. Its a challenging task for sure.

On defense, I anticipate two things by the Bombers offence other than wanting to run the football and use a lot of play action too. I see them picking on Mike Jones and I also see them attempting to exploit our zone behind the linebackers inside, if our linebackers are having to play run too much.

That is where having a good running game is an asset. The linebackers have to crowd up and focus on run first to attempt to stop it and play action freezes them and allows the receivers to have more room to roam behind the linebackers who are late getting into their drops.

Just as a I wrote against Calgary, getting down too much early to the Bombers plays into the strenght of their style of play. Playing with a lead makes it much tougher for them to do what they like to do.

Win or lose, I will accept it as long as our Leos play hard and smart. The Bombers are a veteran, talented team. While most experts believe our lack of offensive balance is our greatest detriment for this West Final, I believe our Leos can beat the Bombers anyway, as long as our defense can do its job.

Go Leos!!