Leos/Riders Semi-Final Keys to the Game

[Blitz]

Leos/Riders Semi-Final Keys to the Game

Our Leos head west to Regina to play the Roughriders in the West Semi-Final on Sunday. Both teams finished the regular season with an 11-7 won-lost record with the Riders playing host to our Leos due to the season’s head to head matchup.

Weather reports indicate a balmy -10 degrees at kickoff and who knows what the wind chill factor will be. What we know is the Regina crowd will be loud and even more hostile than the elements. Its November and its CFL playoff football weather that separates the winners from the pretenders as the hits have an extra sting, the ground is hard and unforgiving, and the pressure is enormous.

The Riders offence will be led by quarterback Darian Durrant, the West’s all-star quarterback, by Korey Sheets, a West all-star running back, and by Western all-star receivers Chris Getslaf and Weston Dressler. Getzlaf is questionable but will probably play and the Riders also have Rob Bagg and Geroy Simon as options.

The Riders offence can be formidable, especially if Sheets plays well, giving the Riders offence a balanced attack. The Riders and not Calgary had the most first downs on offence this season and their offence also rushed the football the most times in 2013. Shutting down the Riders running game will be a key to victory for our Leos.

On defense the Riders are also a tough bunch. The Riders defense gave up less than 100 yards rushing per game this season and their pass defense was the most difficult to complete passes against. Opposition offences only completed an average of 58.2% of their passes against the Riders tough pass defense. What may be even more surprising to some fans is that the Riders had the least points scored a against in the CFL. The Riders only gave up an average of 22. 1 points per game, better than Calgary, Montreal, our Leos, and Toronto. They are very tough to score against.

However, our Leos are going into this playoff game with a lot more confidence. The one-two punch of Logan and Harris, combined with a new blocking scheme, has revitalized our running attack. Buck Pierce has looked good in his last two outings and Travis Lulay showed in our last game, in limited playing time, that he is ready to step in and lead the offence.
Defensively , our strength is our linebacking and pass defense.

We have two West all-star linebackers in Bighill and Eliminian and three West all-stars in Parks, Marsh and Phillips. Bell is ready to go and Korey Banks brings veteran experience. However, it will be up to our defensive line, led by Eric Taylor to plug gaps and allow our linebackers to make plays on Sheets.

Here are my keys to this big game. I look forward to reading yours. They are simple but they are the stuff that makes the difference in a big playoff game.

1.Win the Battle of the Trenches.

Our offensive line has to block effectively to open holes for Logan and Harris and they will also need to do their part again. We have to be able to run the football even though the Riders are preparing well for this fact. As Buck said, we cannot win if we are one dimensional.

On defense this is a game that our defensive line needs to play its best game of the season if we want to win. Keron Williams returns to the lineup. We need him to play well and we need the same from Smith, Wilson, and Taylor. A huge game by our defensive line could be a difference maker. This is the first season we have not had an all-star on the defensive line for eons but an inspired effort can put behind a less than stellar season.

The team that establishes its running game best is the most likely to win this game.

2.Win the Take Away/Give Away Battle.

Teams that win this battle win over 80% of regular season games. In playoff games turnovers become even more important. With cold weather, a hard ground, and with hits having a little extra, protecting the football on offence and creating turnovers on defense will loom large.

3.Be Ready from the Opening Whistle.

We lost last season’s WDF because we came out flat and were not mentally ready to play. We need to get off to a good start. Playing from behind is double tough in the playoffs, especially when you are the visiting team. Getting an early lead enables you to use the running game more, takes the home crowd out the game, and boosts confidence and inspiration. Playing from behind allows the home team to run the football more, to have the home crowd remain boisterous, and gets the home team juiced. We need to be ready to play hard, tough, and smart from the opening kickoff.

4.Make the Big Plays.

Most playoff games come down to a few big plays and the players who make them. Pressure often makes or breaks players. The players who can make that special block, or juke that defensive player out of his shoes, or make that great catch, penetrate the offensive line at a key time, come up with that key sack, force that fumble, make that great interception, or break a return for a big gain become our heroes. Hopefully it will be Leos who make more of those great plays.

WRAP

I don’t believe everything happens for a reason. At the same time there has to be a few holes in the road. It’s the football god’s way of providing contrast. There have been a few holes in the road this season. But it’s how you end the journey that is most important.

It’s a brand new football season and there is hope in Leo land. However one game this Sunday in Regina, on a frozen field, will either ice that hope or provide even more excitement as the journey continues.

Here’s hoping our Leos will be able to continue the journey of this football season after Sunday.

[ziggy]

If ever there was a case where one player could make a huge difference it's this one. If Sheets can run the ball effectively we may be toast. I'm not worried as much if Durant is forced into passing, although the have a good receiving corps, I think we can still pull out a win. I think Durant can be rattled if forced to throw and if so we have a good chance. If Sheets has a good game though,Durant will have time, remain calm and make some big plays in the air. Stop Sheets, pressure Durant.

[Coast Mountain Lion]

Good summary as usual, but if they head west to Regina they're going to be awfully tired when they get there. Not to mention the 22 hour time change

[notahomer]

....Weather reports indicate a balmy -10 degrees at kickoff and who knows what the wind chill factor will be. .....

Where oh where are you getting your weather facts from??? Not questioning them, I have heard Coach B. joking around that he gets his reports from the BC Weatherpeople because he doesn't trust the ones he'd get from Sask.

I hope its an entertaining game. Blitz, your keys certainly make sense and they would for most games. However, the little extras you tossed in there, (turnovers bigger in playoffs, keeping crowd out etc...) are good points too.

My perspective? Well I think the Riders need Sheets more than any player on their roster. This offence was terrible WITHOUT him and got a good bump in production when he returned. I do NOT see Durant leading the Riders to success UNLESS Sheets has a good game for all 4 quarters. Durant needing to go away from Sheets due to trailing and/or lack of success..... I LOVE THE LIONS CHANCES.

Both these teams (Riders/Lions) have good solid defences. No I was not aware the Riders led the league in fewest points allowed. I still think the Lions can score (and unfortunately our last game in Mosaic proved this also works for the Riders) points without the Riders D being on the field. The Riders vaunted punt return defence struggled a bit recently and I love watching Logan juke.

I have never played/coached CIS or pro football. What I wonder is how much the other stuff is going to impact the players/coaches, this week? If asked they laugh and say it doesn't matter but sometimes later they'll admit it does (usually after winning in spite of the pressures). What other stuff? The fact there is a Grey Cup game being played in this same stadium two weeks afterwards? The fact quite a few Lions and one exLion maybe playing their final game in the CFL? Okay maybe fact is the wrong word but I guess what I'm talking about is the extra distractions. Great teams claim to be able to brush them aside and say they don't matter but I don't buy it. IMO, the Lions of 2011 probably would have struggled a bit more in the playoffs had their season not started so badly in the win/loss. These Riders started 8-1 in a season the city is hosting the Grey CUp. I pity the Riders players if they are unable to beat the Lions.

[South Pender]

Just an excellent preview, as always. I particularly agree with your Point 1, Win the Battle of the Trenches. And this is where I worry a bit. Our O-line has been doing better in the last couple of games, but we really are under-manned there in the inside, improved blocking scheme or not. Norman, Kabongo, and Valli will have to play the game of their lives. I also worry about the D-line. If we go with Keron Williams, Smith, Wilson, and Taylor, this must mean that Williams will be moved inside again, where he has not been very effective. I think Smith and Wilson will be OK at the ends, but Williams and Taylor are going to have to be outstanding for us to control Kory Sheets. And your Point 3 is particularly relevant, in my opinion. We need to hope that Benevides and the other coaches have the team in the best possibly psychological state for this game--confident, hungry, and resilient--and I think this falls mainly on the HC. In many ways, this seems--at least to me--to be at least as important as the physical and tactical preparation.

[TheLionKing]

I'll keep my keys short:

i) Stop Korey Sheets

ii) Establish the running game and keep running the football

iii) No turnovers or penalties

iv) Dominate the line of scrimmage

[B.C.FAN]

Great breakdown, as usual. For me, there's only one key for this game: Don't turn the ball over. That's always the case against Saskatchewan, and is especially important in the playoffs and in bad weather. These are two excellent defences that don't give up a lot of points except off turnovers. Last time these teams met, the Lions turned the ball over 8 times for 28 Rider points. A whopping 30% of the points given up by the Lions this year and 33% of their points scored have come off turnovers. The Riders are a league-best 8-1 when they win the turnover battle and 1-4 when they lose it. Lose the turnover battle and lose the game.

[leo4life]

Great Breakdown thanks again Blitz!
My Keys for Sunday
1.Run the football EFFECTIVATLEY
2.Protect the football win the turn over battle
3.Shutdown Sheets,keep Durant in the pocket

[Blitz]

Just an excellent preview, as always. I particularly agree with your Point 1, Win the Battle of the Trenches. And this is where I worry a bit. Our O-line has been doing better in the last couple of games, but we really are under-manned there in the inside, improved blocking scheme or not. Norman, Kabongo, and Valli will have to play the game of their lives. I also worry about the D-line. If we go with Keron Williams, Smith, Wilson, and Taylor, this must mean that Williams will be moved inside again, where he has not been very effective. I think Smith and Wilson will be OK at the ends, but Williams and Taylor are going to have to be outstanding for us to control Kory Sheets. And your Point 3 is particularly relevant, in my opinion. We need to hope that Benevides and the other coaches have the team in the best possibly psychological state for this game--confident, hungry, and resilient--and I think this falls mainly on the HC. In many ways, this seems--at least to me--to be at least as important as the physical and tactical preparation.

In picking up on one of your comments South Pender the Lions coaching staff and Lions defensive players have said Eric Taylor has had an excellent season. The problem is that he has not had an imposing 3 technique tackle beside him. Keron has not got the job done inside when he has played there this season. I'm guessing that we will see Wilson, Smith, and Jordan as the rotation at defensive end and Taylor, Keron,and Reed inside with Keron being rotated in both on the outside and the inside. Our Leos have Keron on the depth chart inside but he has been lined up at defensive end a number of times as well in recent games. I guess it depends on how Stubler plans to stop Sheets.

Khalif had a good season in Toronto and was an Eastern All-Star. I don't think there is much question that we are going to have to find an import 3 technique tackle in the off-season. Taylor is used more as a 1 or 0 technique tackle and we need to find a tackle next year who can penetrate and rush the passer as Khalif did for us when he was here. But right now we have to get it done with who we have. Keron W. has played both defensive tackle and defensive end and he is has been capable of coming up with a dominating game in the past and sure hope he plays well in Regina.

Thanks for the stats on turnovers B.C. Fan. I always knew that turnovers were important but since you started providing detailed stats the concept is much more powerfully embedded in my brain.

And for some good news....the temperature in Regina on Sunday will reach a high of -5 degrees.

[zark]

I thought our whole problem this year was our OLine and Chap ball. I thought both improved in the last few games. I saw a news report where the OLine now attacks the holes more, and is now more aggressive in opening up holes. Harris noticed the change and so did we. Chap needs to find a few more twists. And since we have Logan and Harris making a difference, don't let the QB's run. We still have a WF and a Grey Cup ahead.
I'm not worried about the defence. DD will start throwing picks eventually after Stubler and his men shut Sheets down. They're not very good in the red zone.
My first Fri. night without football. I'm having withdrawal symptoms already.
Go Lions!

Lions getting creative behind closed doors?

http://www.cfl.ca/article/morris-lions- ... osed-doors

[DanoT]

Blitz, in your most recent post you listed a possible rotation on D line involving 6 Imports, but not NI Westerman. So is Westerman injured or will one of the 6 Import D line be a healthy scratch?

(I hate that they rarely announce the healthy scratches on TV or at the game and there are always 4 guys on the 46 man roster that don't dress.)

[Blitz]

Blitz, in your most recent post you listed a possible rotation on D line involving 6 Imports, but not NI Westerman. So is Westerman injured or will one of the 6 Import D line be a healthy scratch?

(I hate that they rarely announce the healthy scratches on TV or at the game and there are always 4 guys on the 46 man roster that don't dress.)

Sorry Dano T. I should have said Smith, Jordan, and Wilson outside, Taylor, Westerman, and Reed inside with Keron Williams playing both defensive end and defensive tackle. Reed and Westerman of course are non-imports as you probably realize. I doubt Smith, Jordan, Wilson, Taylor, or Williams will be scratched but I would guess Reed could be a possibility. So we would either go with 5 imports and Westerman on the defensive line or 5 imports and two non-imports on the defensive line.

notahomer...you asked where I am getting my weather reports. The weather network has a low of -15 and a high of -5 for Sunday. Environment Canada has it as low of -9 and a high of -7 (sun and cloud mix)

[South Pender]

In picking up on one of your comments South Pender the Lions coaching staff and Lions defensive players have said Eric Taylor has had an excellent season. The problem is that he has not had an imposing 3 technique tackle beside him. Keron has not got the job done inside when he has played there this season. I'm guessing that we will see Wilson, Smith, and Jordan as the rotation at defensive end and Taylor, Keron,and Reed inside with Keron being rotated in both on the outside and the inside. Our Leos have Keron on the depth chart inside but he has been lined up at defensive end a number of times as well in recent games. I guess it depends on how Stubler plans to stop Sheets.

Good analysis. You're right, Taylor has seemed to be one D-line guy who has had a good year. A couple of questions: (a) did Mitchell play 3 technique when we had him, or did he line up in the A gap? and (b) have we had Keron play 3 technique when he's been at tackle? (I haven't noticed.) I suppose this would make sense putting him a little further out on the line to improve his pass-rushing chances.

[notahomer]

......notahomer...you asked where I am getting my weather reports. The weather network has a low of -15 and a high of -5 for Sunday. Environment Canada has it as low of -9 and a high of -7 (sun and cloud mix)

Oh good, so you were not relying on Saskatchewan people for the updates ? Maybe the wind will play a double impact? The usual how will it affect the kicks/throws etc... but also bringing a few degress less due to chill......

I also appreciate a lot of the stats/jargon being provided in the thread. To say a team WON the turnover battle is helpful. To then tie it into actual points really hammers it home. I'm going out shopping tomorrow for snacks. I am not sure I'll even crack open my snacks. I'm thinking this might be the kind of game where I'm too NERVOUS beforehand and unless I remember during halftime.... I could see myself focussed on an exciting battle. IMO, I hope its more of a defensive battle but regardless I'm looking forward to a good effort by both teams players/coaches..............

[Rammer]

Great breakdown, as usual. For me, there's only one key for this game: Don't turn the ball over. That's always the case against Saskatchewan, and is especially important in the playoffs and in bad weather. These are two excellent defences that don't give up a lot of points except off turnovers. Last time these teams met, the Lions turned the ball over 8 times for 28 Rider points. A whopping 30% of the points given up by the Lions this year and 33% of their points scored have come off turnovers. The Riders are a league-best 8-1 when they win the turnover battle and 1-4 when they lose it. Lose the turnover battle and lose the game.

Fully agree, the turnover battle is the largest factor in this game. But I will add that the sack attack/pressures will loom large as well, as if Lulay/Pierce get pressured, they aren't nearly as effective, but more of a concern is their durability if Saskatchewan can contact either QB. Conversely, Durant is durable, but any pressure will force him into errors, he has a tendency to throw up lame ducks if the heat is on. We do hear that he has some rib problems, and that may make him shy away from contact, so pressure is going to be key as well for the Lions.