The last time these two teams played each other in the playoffs was the 2011 Grey Cup game. In that contest our Leos prevailed over the 8-10 Bombers to win the Grey Cup. But that was then and this is now.
Our Leos have beaten Edmonton, Ottawa, and the Riders twice, since last losing to Winnipeg. The Bombers lost to Ottawa, which gave our Leos the opportunity to secure this home playoff game.
Our Leos have an explosive offence with the likes of Jonathan Jennings, Manny Arseneauz, Bryan Burnham, Terrell Sinkfield, Jeremiah Johnson and Chris Rainey. Khari Jones has made some excellent scheme changes to our offence, over the past three weeks, making it much more dynamic.
The Bombers are a possession-style offence under Nichols, preferring shorter type routes often and using their backs in the flats and on screen plays. They use misdirection play action a lot and they are committed to running the football to set it up.
The Bombers defense is a dangerous, ball hawking defense and they need to be played differently. Our Leos defense has been a passive, bend but don't break style of defense for most of this season but lately, our defense has been more aggressive and the results have been more than favorable.
The Bombers didn't play Keith Shologan, linebacker Khalil Bass, offensive linemen Travis Bond and Sukh Chungh and receiver Clarence Denmark in their last game of the season but they are expected to play against our Leos. But Kevin Fogg is seriously questionable to play against our Leos. He is a dynamic return man and a ball hawking defensive back. But the Bombers Quincy McDuffie can return kicks. He returned a kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown — his second this season — which tied a CFL record for most kick-off return touchdowns in a season.
Our Leos suffered injuries to Jeremiah Johnson and Anthony Gaitor last game. Johnson returned to play in the game while Gaitor didn't. Both are expected to play the Bombers but Shawn Gore may not, due to concussion protocol. Stephen Adekolu started one game against Winnipeg this season and will likely draw in, along with Shaq Johnson being activated, should Gore not be able to play.
Here is a closer look at the West Semi-Final
THE BUONO FACTOR
Wally Buono has won a lot of regular season games as a Leo Head Coach. But Buono's playoff record does not match his regular season record. We are 7-7 in the playoffs under Buono, even though we were highly favored in most contests. The major reason: FEAR
Buono's teams here in B.C., too often, have played so conservatively and predictively, that its hurt us. If Buono has a penchant for punting, with less than a yard to go, inside the opposition's five yard line during the regular season, his fear is even worse during a playoff game. Khari Jones has introduced a number of new formations and plays since our loss to Winnipeg. His offensive scheme is much better prepared to play the Bombers.
The big question is whether Buono will let him run the offence the way he has the last three games or whether Buono will just want to pound the football and play for field position. Its even a bigger question for our defense, which has played very aggressively lately. Will Buono insist we go back to passive defense, hoping the Bombers will be unable to sustain drives. Buono's fear was evident last game against the Riders, when he not only reinserted Johnson but played Jennings late in the third quarter with a 33-4 lead and Chris Rainey late in the fourth quarter, with a huge lead.
Wally needs to be clear thinking in both his preparations for this game and his game calls during the game. Buono can't afford to make bad challenge calls early in this game, as he is prone to do. He needs to gamble on third and one or less, in the opposition end of the field. Buono refused to do that twice in the first Bomber contest and it probably cost us the game. McCallum kicked a 44 yard field goal last contest, so there is no reason for Buono to punt the football, as he did against Winnipeg, from the Winnipeg 35 yard line (and he has done that in the past with a good field goal kicker).
We'll need to play smart against the Bombers defense and play aggressively against the Bombers offence.
OFFENCE
Khari Jones now has the scheme to play the Bombers defense. We didn't have that scheme the last two times we played Winnipeg. From a formation point of view, Jones has numerous plays now, coming off two back sets, ace back sets, and empty back sets. He has introduced the bunch formation, which is an excellent formation against man defense. He has an arsenal of crossing patterns now to compliment our vertical pass plays. He's introduced the jet sweep.
He moves our receivers around much more, rather than locking them into their positions. For example, he now lines up Arseneaux and Burnham together on the same side or lines up Sinkfield outside. Khari has also added some misdirection play action bootlegs for Jennings. Jones even introduced the fullback screen pass to Lumbala last game, a play I have been pleading for all season.
How to we attack the Bombers defense? They play Man/Cover 2. Their man defenders will often have their backs to the football, playing tight man coverage. Last game, one of their safeties cheated up on Arseneaux's deep intermediate routes. Arseneaux had 16 yds. receiving in our last contest. Jeremiah Johnson had 51 yds. on 13 carries (3.9 yd. average). In the previous contest against the Bombers, Anthony Allen had 28 yds. rushing on 11 carries (2.5 yd. average). The message: we can't just run inside against the Bombers and its stupid to do so.
Running Game - Attack the Edge.
We have to attack the edge with our running game. It just can't be inside zone read. The Bombers stuffed our inside zone read in both contests. That means some quick toss sweeps, power sweeps, jet sweep, and most importantly we have to run the inside zone read option. Jennings has to pull the football off the inside zone read and take off outside. He needs to get down when he sees a tackler. But even if Jennings does this a couple of times early in the contest, it will prevent the Bombers ends from crashing down on our inside zone read run and it will also make the linebackers play off deeper.
With the Bombers defensive backs playing man, with their backs to the football, if we get outside, there will be lots of room to run. Play action, coming off misdirection, is also a key. If Jennings can get outside the defensive end, he will have the ability to run or pass, with lots of time to throw. Jennings ran the football for a 20 yard touchdown off misdirection play action in the previous contest.
The Passing Attack - Play Aggressive But Smart
We know the Bombers will key on Arseneaux and Burnham. They will double cover everything deep. They will double cover the deep intermediate passes too. What should we do?
1. Attack Horizontally. We can use our speed to attack them horizontally. That means lots of crossing patterns and rub routes. It means sideline patterns, dig patterns, and slat patterns that avoid double coverage. It means using a lot of bunch formations to create confusion.
2. Attack Weak Points. Think about this. If we are in a five receiver set and the Bombers are playing Man/Cover 2 they need five defensive backs and two safeties to do that. That means they only have 5 defenders to rush the quarterback as well ass cover our tailback, quarterback, the running game etc. If they rush four defenders, that leaves them one linebacker to cover Jennings and Johnson or Rainey.
Play action, with the tailback, after his fake, going out on a pattern, put the linebacker in hell. He either covers the tailback and Jennings runs or he comes up on Jennings and Johnson/Rainey are wide open. Lulay lived off that play to Harris. Secondly, it really sets up the delayed swing pass and the screen pass.
The last time we played the Bombers we ran the swing pass to Rainey far too quickly and tried to block for him. Instead, let the receivers take their man defenders deep on a pass pattern and then swing it to Rainey on a delay swing pass. That will isolate him against a single linebacker. Besides, when the tailback stays in, the Bombers often blitz the linebacker. Make it look like the tailback is blocking. Secondly, I don't even need to explain why the Bombers Man/Cover 2 is so open to the screen pass. Take the man defenders deep, let the rush come in, and we have three offensive lineman and a tailback against one linebacker.
Jones should also go empty backfield on occasion. I usually hate this formation. But if the Bombers cover all six receivers in man coverage, with two safeties, it means they will only have four defenders left. If they rush all four, Jennings can run the quarterback draw or take off inside. Or they will rush three, which will give Jennings more time to throw.
The plays we should avoid are hitch screens and the motion screen to Arseneaux. They are not good plays to run against tight man coverage. They didn't work against the Bombers in two previous contests. Forget them.
If we want to go deep, the deep guys should be Sinkfield and Adekolu. Both will likely get single coverage, as the Bombers safeties focus on Arseneaux and Burnham. Run Arseneaux on a deep post and Sinkfield on a fly and the safety will go to Manny. Run Burnham on a deep post and throw to Adekolu on a fly pattern (he is a long strider who was more open on his deep route last game than any Leo receiver this season).
We can also get away from both Arseneaux and Burnham getting double coverage by lining both together on the boundary side. We can also line up Arseneaux at the outside receiver position on the boundary side, which makes double coverage much more difficult for intermediate routes.
We have to be aggressive but smart aggressive. Avoid turnovers but don't play afraid. We need to attack but attack smart.
DEFENCE - DON'T PLAY 'GIRLY MAN' SCHEME
The Bombers like to run the football and then use play action off it, often throwing to the back. They like to dump to their backs. They like to run short possession routes. So, there is absolutely no sense in using Bighill as a safety, as we did too often in the first two contests we played the Bombers.
Our defence has played so well lately, because we have been aggressive. We've used more formations, we've blitzed more often, and we've stunted a lot. Let Biggiie and Sol E, be linebackers who can come up on a quarterback. Let our defensive backs play tighter defence, as we have lately.
Andrew Harris really hurt us in both contests that we played the Bombers. There is no sense dropping Sol E. and Bighill into underneath coverage and leaving Harris alone in the flat. If Harris goes to the flat, the linebacker on that side has to attack him quickly. At times, on passing downs, it would even be wise to assign Purifoy to Harris with man coverage.
Even if Westerman can play, we need to dress both Bryant Turner Jr. and Brooks. Bryant Turner Jr. has played very well. Use him and Brooks and line up Menard at defensive end. Then bring in Westerman (or Forde) and line up Roh at defensive end. Its really worked for us. Roh plays his best football when he is rotated with Menard. Bazzie got a sack last game because he was not crashing down as often, worrying about the run too. Our defensive ends need to focus on containing and pressuring Nichols, off play action boots. They can't do that, over worrying about the inside run. With Brooks and Bryant Turner Jr. that is not a problem (or hasn't been)
For second and long, take a linebacker out and put in an extra defensive back. Bighill plays best when he is not being asked to be a linebacker and a safety. But most of the time we don't need to play Zone/Cover 2. Zone Cover 1 is enough against the Bombers offence. It's better suited for their shorter passing attack. The big question is ..will Wally want us to play Cover 2 because he is too passive.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This is a game that we need to use Rainey on offence more than usual. At the same time, we want Rainey as a special teams weapon. To do that, we need to give Iannuzzi a punt return to keep Rainey fresh. We also need to use either Sinkfield or Iannuzzi on the kick return unit, alongside Rainey.
But the key is that we have Paul McCallum, who shockingly kicked a 44 yard field goal in his first game back, with room to spare. He put it right down the middle. He also kicked his three other field goal attempts confidently. Had Leone been able to kick a 30 yard field goal against Winnipeg at home, we would have won that game. Had he not missed in Winnipeg, instead of gambling on third and one, with Rainey, we would have been kicking the game winning field goal.
We are very fortunate that McCallum was willing to sign on. Wally had met with McCallum at training camp in 2015 and asked him to retire or Buono would cut him. But when it came to signing McCallum a week ago, Wally didn't phone McCallum. Instead he asked Neil McAvoy to contact McCallum.
To make matters even worse, McCallum had asked to pay Wally the air fare and join our Leos for the trip to Saskatchewan, for the closing of Mosaic, but Buono refused, using the precedent excuse. But an exception should have been made for McCallum, a long time Leo vet who had also had a long career in Saskatchewan and played there his last season - after Wally tried to get him to retire. It was a special occasion.
Then Leone missed his kicks in Saskatchewan and Wally was stuck needing McCallum desperately to bail us out. McCallum could have told Wally to take a hike, after being asked to retire by Wally or be cut and then Wally would not even treat him with a little consideration regarding the flight. But McCallum took the high road. I also bet he got enough money out of Wally that the commercial flight McCallum had to take to Regina ended up being paid for...Flights to Regina from Vancouver are infrequent and inconvenient. And so, goes the story, Maple Ridge realtor Paul McCallum hoped to catch a ride on the Lions’ charter flight to Regina for the farewell game at Mosaic Stadium on Oct. 29. The former Roughrider kicker was prepared to pay $1,000 for a return trip on the Lions’ Air North carrier, but Wally Buono was cool on the idea, apparently not wanting to set a precedent. A day later, McCallum, who flew commercially, received a phone call from the Lions head coach, seeking his services to replace the struggling Richie Leone. McCallum, 46, went four-for-four on field goal attempts Saturday on his return to the CFL.
Thankfully, we have McCallum for this playoff game. Hit or miss, I would rather have McCallum kicking field goals in a close contest. I'll live with the result.
WRAP
We need to play smart, aggressive football. Our coordinators have shown recently that they can game plan and play call with smart aggressive football. That was the way we won lately and got this home playoff berth. Hopefully Wally will let them continue what they are doing so very well, recently.
It's a huge playoff game. Our Leos have the talent to win this game. We are a better team than Winnipeg. We should be highly motivated.
Go Leos!!!!!