Our Leos are presently tied for second place with the Blue Bombers. Both teams have two games remaining on their schedule. The Bombers have back to back games with Ottawa while we play the Riders away and then back at home. We really have to win both of these games and hope the Bombers lose one to Ottawa, in order for our Leos to secure a home playoff berth.
Our Leos had lost two in a row and three of their last four, before defeating Edmonton last weekend. It was a hard fought contest that our Leos lead from early in the game.
The Riders had won four in a row before losing to Montreal last weekend. The Als have a formidable defence and that defence played very well in defeating Saskatchewan.
Our Leos will be playing before a capacity crowd, as its the last game for the Riders at Mosaic Stadium. The Riders are pumped to say goodbye to their stadium with a win. The Riders are a very improved team since the start of the year.
Lets have a closer look:
DEFENCE
Our defense is the unit that needs to improve its play a lot if we are going to have a hope of playing in the Big Dance this year.
They will be facing Darian Durrant, who has quietly had a very good season this year. Durrant sits in fourth place in the quarterback standings just behind Jonathan Jennings. Durrant has completed 67.3% of his passes compared to Jennings 67.4%. Durrant has a 94.7 quarterback efficiency average compared to Jennings 101.3.
Jennings stats have continued to improve this season and his quarterback efficiency average would be leading the CFL, had Jennings not thrown so many interceptions in his previous three contests against the Eskimos and Bombers, before going error free against the Eskimos last weekend.
Naaomon Roosevelt was the Riders leading receiver this season, catching almost 1100 yds, in 11 games before getting injured. But the Riders have Ricky Collins, Celeb Holly, Rob Bagg, and Nic Demski and they are all good quality receivers. Shawmad Chambers, when he enters a game, is a big target.
The Riders rushing attack ranks 8th this season. It's more of a threat with Curtis Steele at tailback, as he averaged 5.8 yds per rush. Joe McNight was the Riders tailback last game and they use him. Darian Durrant is also a threat to run on every pass play and we don't need to be reminded of what he did to us in the 2013 playoff game.
The Riders have also given up 48 sacks this season, second worst in the CFL.
So, if our defence can get good pressure on Durrant, it would be the key to a good defensive game. However, defensive pressure has been a problem for our Leos defence for a number of games now. Washington needs to make some adaptions to our predictable blitz package. Alex Bazzie needs to get back to his early season form. Hopefully Westerman will return and we'll also dress Bryant Turner Jr. rather than Darius Allen, if Westerman can play.
Our defensive line had 0 tackles last game and no sacks. If we want to become a successful playoff team, this is the area in need of our most improvement.
OFFENCE
Jonathan Jennings is having an incredible year. Our offence is the second leading point scoring offence in the CFL. Last game, Jennings played much more conservatively to avoid interceptions. Its a fine line between attacking a defense and not throwing interceptions, especially with the style of our offensive scheme, which is a vertical scheme favoring passing the deep ball and the deep intermediate ball. It also often does not have check down receiver on passing plays.
Jennings will be throwing to two receivers in Manny and Burnham, who are both having exceptional seasons. Manny is 3rd in CFL receiving while Burnham is 5th. Burnham has the best reception average per catch in the CFL. (18.1 yds. per catch). Shawn Gore is always a receiving threat.
The receiver that we need to utilize more in our passing attack is Sinkfield. Sinkfield is averaging 53 yds. per game in receptions for our Leos. But Sinkfield only had 21 yards in receptions on 3 catches (7 yd. average per reception) and is his speed is not being used, when he lines up at outside slot in our five receiver set. Last game, we did line up Sinkfield in a tight inside slot a few times. We need to use his speed deep and also on more crossing patterns.
My guess is that we will start Allen at tailback this week, to keep Johnson fresh for the playoffs. Johnson had an excellent game against the Eskimos and our running attack, which had struggled against the Bombers whether Allen or Johnson started, looked revitalized against the Eskimos last game.
In fact, early in that game, our passing game was struggling but once our running game got going, it changed everything. Allen has a 50 yds. per carry average, so he can get the job done.
Chris Rainey has an eye jumping 8.1 yds. per carry rush average this season, when he comes into the game as a rotational tailback.He also averages 9.5 yds. per catch coming out of the backfield. Both are CFL bests so Rainey adds a special dimension when he enters our offence.
Our Leos rank 6th in the CFL in terms of red zone percentage success. To make matters even worse, Wally often will not gamble on third and one inside the red zone, which makes us even less effective than our 6th place ranking. This is a major area for improvement for Khari Jones. Khari Jones has made too many bad play calls have happened this season in the red zone and Wally's overly conservative approach on third down hasn't helped inside the red zone or out of it.
Last game, we scored 10 points, following a Wally third and one and third and two gamble. He went against his tendency and it worked for us.
Last game the play of Hunter Steward, Jovan Olifioye and Cody Husband was the key to our improved offensive line play. But Antonio Johnson had his struggles and needs to play better. Fabian also needs to step up his game for the Riders.
The Riders defense has improved dramatically in recent weeks. The addition of Willie Jefferson really changes their defense. Jefferson is very hard to block as a pass rusher. He will make A.C. Leonard, converted to tight end by Chris Jones better. Leonard has 5 sacks on the season. Greg Jones is having an excellent season as the Riders middle linebacker.
Chris Jones has been well known for playing press man coverage and blitzing defence in his previous stints before coming to the Riders. As the Riders defense improved Jones is back to dialing up more , itzes. I'm anticipating Jones will play a fair amount of Man/Cover 2 against us, mixed in with some zone blitzes.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Riders Tyler Crapigna has hit 87% of his field goals this season, including a 53 yarder, so if the Riders get into our end of the field they have a consistent field goal kicker who can score points. Josh Bartell averages 44.8 yds per punt.
Richie Leone has improved his field goal average to 71.4%. His punting average is 49.8 yds. per punt. Our Leos average 38 net punting yards to the Riders 34.7 yds. That should give our Leos approximately 16.5 yards of field position advantage in this game.
Chris Rainey leads the CFL in combined yards. He has the second highest punt return average in the league at 14. 2 yds. per return and leads the CFL with two punt return touchdowns. Rainey is third best in the CFL in kick return average. However, no CFL return man makes his own return yards like Rainey. If we could actually get him a block or two, he can spring a big return almost every time.
Last game our Leos lined up Shaq Murray Lawrence beside Rainey, on kick returns, as we have all season, except for the home Winnipeg game, when we lined up Sinkfield beside Rainey. Its time to get Sinkfield more involved. This is one way to utilize his speed and to keep Rainey fresh by letting Sinkfield return one kickoff per game, as we usually do Shaq.
Joe Craig returns punts for the Riders and he has the ability to pick up big yardage if he gets a couple of key blocks. He also has a 71 yard punt return touchdown this season.
In terms of kickoffs, this is perhaps the weakest area of our Leos this season. We rank 8th in the CFL in kickoff defence. Kendell Lawrence has enough ability to return kickoffs well if are coverage team doesn't stay in their lanes and play disciplined.
WRAP
Big opposition crowd. Big game.
Go Leos!!
Basically we now only blitz Sol E. or Bighill or both in the A or B gap. The defense knows its coming. The times we blitz Bighill or Purifoy to the outside, its usually successful but its rarer than spotting a barn owl. 
