The Bombers are two points behind our Lions, who have a game in hand. However, the two games against the Bombers could be the key in determining which team will finish in second place in the West and host a playoff game.
Our Leos responded with an outstanding offensive performance after a loss to Edmonton. Jonathan Jennings had a mind-blowing 166.2 quarterback efficiency average in the game against Ottawa.
The Bombers had gone on a 7 game winning streak with their quarterback change to Nichols. However, a tough road loss to Calgary, in a game they led, with 20 seconds left to play and a second loss to the surging Eskimos last weekend has brought the Blue and Gold back to earth.
Both teams understand the magnitude of the next two games as they face each other for the first time this season. The Bombers have not been in the playoffs since 2011. They will be motivated.
Lets have a closer look:
OFFENCE
Our B.C. Lions offence will be attacking a Bombers defense that ranks only behind the Montreal Als and Calgary Stampeders defences. The Bombers defence is also a very aggressive, dangerous defence to play against. The Bombers lead the CFL in interceptions with 22. To provide some contast, our Leos have only intercepted 7 passes this season. The Bombers defense also leads the CFL in forced fumbles this season with 20.
Maurice Leggett of the Bombers leads the CFL in interceptions (6) and Fogg is also a ball hawk.
Only three CFL teams had positive giveaway/takeaway ratio this season - Winnipeg (+24) Calgary +14) and Montreal (+1) going into last weekends' games. B.C. Fan always emphasizes how important the giveaway/takeaway ratio is in terms of winning football games.
The Bombers defence's rate of turnovers is almost unprecedented. Its been stratospheric. The Bombers 7 game winning streak and their near upset of Calgary has been based on two main factors: not turning the footall over on offence and playing conservatively and 2) creating massive turnovers on defence by playing very aggressively.
This is a game that we can't afford to lose the turnover battle.
Our offence will need to attack Winnipeg's defence while also recognizing that the Bombers defense likes to ball hawk as strip the football.
Jonathan Jennings is coming off an outstanding performance in which he comleted 80% of his passing attempts, many of the deep variety, for 348 yds. and 3 touchdowns. Jennings ability to throw the deep ball with tremendous precision is amazing. He has outstanding poise. He can make all the throws. He is mobile. He is playing wellbeyond his experience. He is the major reason our Leos are enjoying such a successful season.
However, he has been hamstrung, at times this year, with a vanilla spread offence. Last game, offensive scheme changes were made to our offence that helped to make our offence more dynamic. We added some running plays (the inside handoff sweep, the quick pitch outside, the draw play to Alllen) that added some variety to the running attack. Allen's largest gain of the night was a 27 yard gain coming of the sweep play and cutting the play up, once the defense was spread out. Allen averaged 6.8 yds. per carry and our improved running game scheme created the opportunity for some effective misdirection play action.
In the passing game, some sprint outs and semi-rolls were added to the game plan and they were effective. A screen pass to Rainy was also added, even though Rainey set up on the wrong side of the design of the play. Still, it is a play that could be dangerous if we use it again.
Our Leos also began to adapt our offence to begin to take advantage of Sinkfield's still set. Rather than plug and play him in the outside slot, as we had done in his first game, using him for possession patterns, we sent him deep at times and also put him in the backfield. Finding ways to get the football to Sinkfield in space, as well as Rainey, when he rotates into the offence, will make our offence more dangerous.
With Arseneauz, Burnham, Gore, and Sinkfield, we have a receiving crew that can put a lot of pressure on a defensive secondary. Iannuzzi is playing better and has made a few key catches. The use of Adekolu for the first time in two seasons as a rotational receiver last game for some reps was wise and should continue. His 19 yd. catch and run was an example of what he can do, as a big target with great hands, plus he brings fresh legs into the lineup when he enters a game.
The Bombers defense, by playing a high stakes style of defence can be taken advantage of. They give up a lot of yardage per contest. They are average against the run and their secondary can be exploited. They give up a lot of touchdowns to play their defensive style.
A key to our Leos game against the Bombers is to get up on them early. The Bombers have been outscored 51-17 in the first half of their last two games (recognizing those games were against Calgary and Edmonton)
The Bombers pass rush this season ranks 7th in terms of sacks. Jamal Westerman has 6 sacks this season and is the key Bombers defensive lineman to pass block effectively. The Bombers defense is not good at second and short, so our Less first down production is important in this game. The Bombers interceptions most often come off second and longer situations.
DEFENCE
The Bombers offence came alive when they made Matt Nichols their starter. He is a very underrated quarterback. He has completed 68.7% of his passes, has a very impressive quarterback efficiency rating of 100.3. He's has the lowest interception rate of any quarterback in the CFL. He has only thrown 3 interceptions and makes wise choices passing the football.
The Bombers receiving crew doesn't jump out. Westin Dressler is the Bombers leading receiver and he only ranks 18th amongst CFL receivers. Clarence Denmark, Ryan Smith, Rory Kohlert, and National Fioli Gudino (who has looked very good since joining the Bombers starting lineup) round out the Bombers receiving crew. The Bombers used to throw a lot of footballs to Andrew Harris.
Tim Flanders, replacing the injured Andrew Harris is a dangerous tailback, who has upped the Bombers rushing attack. Flanders has an impressive 6.2 yd. average, as well as the ability to take it to the house.
Our Leos secondary is coming off its worst game of the season. Mark Washington's defense had trouble containing Shakiri Bell and Mike Reilly in our loss to Edmonton and played dismally against the pass against Ottawa, giving up a mind boggling 485 yds. passing. Ryan Phillips expressed his dissatisfaction after the game and he had a right to - he was the only back whose coverage was excellent in that game.
Our Leos especially need significantly improved performances from Brandon Stewart, Mike Edem, and Chandler Fenner, if he starts again. Our Leos have Jeremy Lane, on the practice roster, an NFL cut with high level skills, and he could be activated if things don't improve quickly.
Brooks also needs to step up his level of play.
Mark Washington also needs to rethink our pass defense, which has been exposed too often on the wide side of the field this season and especially the wide flat area. Its also given up way too many big plays. Purifoy, who was used more as a blitzer and underneath cover guy in the early part of the season has been reduced to a more passive role. Washington needs to set him free more to make the big anticipation and aggressive plays he made earlier in the season.
The Bombers offence, under Paul LaPolice, are a possession style of offence with Nichols at quarterback. They are very good at protecting their quarterback (they use 3 INternational offensive linemen including former Leo Jemarus Hardrick) and Nichols also tends to take few sacks by making high percentage passes when under pressure.
The Bombers offence has had slow starts the last two games. Our defense needs to be ready to play and all 60 minutes. The Bombers comeback against Calgary more than proved that point.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Bombers rank 3rd in punt average returns while our Leos lead the CFl in that department. Chris Rainey is always dangerous and his 41 yd. punt return against Ottawa showed his jets. But Kevin Fogg is not only a ball hawking defensive back but also an excellent punt return man. He has the second best punt return average in the CFL (14.6 yds. per return) compared to Rainey's 15.6 yd. punt return average. Fogg has a 72 yd. punt return this season and four pujt return touchdowns called back this season due to penalty . He, like Rainey, he has the potential to take one back all the way and we will need good downfield coverage against him.
if our Leos want to add some explosiveness to our special teams, they would be wise to consider replacing Shaq Murray Lawrence on kick returns. Having both Rainey and Sinkfield as our kick return men would be a dangerous combo and we could also add a reverse or a fake reverse to the equation
If this game comes down to a field goal kicing contest we will be in trouble. Justin Medlock has hit 85.9% of his attempts and he has connected on 4 field goals outside of 50 yds, including a 58 yarder. Leone has the lowest fiekd goal percentage in the CFL, Is very inconsistent outside of 40, and has not made a field goal outside of 50 yds.
However, we should be advantaged in the field position aspect of this game. Leone has a 50 yd. punt average whereas Medlock is only averaging 43.1 yds. per punt. However, the difference is reduced by net punting. Our Leos average 39.0 net yards punting per game vs Winnipeg's 36 yds net putting. So it only works out to 3 yds per punt of 15 yds total difference per game, based upon the number of punts usually made in a game.
WRAP
This game pits our Leos very dangerous offence against the Bombers very dangerous defence. The potential for explosive plays, big turnovers, and exciting special team return men in Rainey and Fogg make this contest between our Leos and Bombers very unpredictable.
Go Leos!!
