As our Leos prepare to travel to Calgary to take on the Stamps in the 2015 Western Semi-Final there is nostalgia in the air that’s derived from football memories of times past - a Willie Fleming dash to the end zone, a Darren Flutie and a Geroy Simon key playoff reception, a Lui Passaglia winning field goal, or a Sean Millington power run wth tacklers boucing off him, as he seeks the goal line.
There is also anticipation of a possible upset, as our Leos ended the season behind a rookie quarterback who was the best in the CFL over his 6 starts, with a rejuvenated Manny Arsenault, with the support of a missile seeking rocket in Adam Bighil, and uplifted with the play of a ball hawking Ryan Phillips.
But we also need to remind ourselves that we are playing the Calgary Stampders at home. The Stamps had the best home record in the CFL at 8-1 and had the best defense in the CFL, only giving up league low 16.1 points per game. The Stamps also came into this season, coming off a 15-3 season and are the defending Grey Cup champions.
If we want to defeat the Stamps, we will have to overcome the following:
THE HUFNAGEL FACTOR
Hufnagel is in his eighth and final season as the Stamps GM and Head Coach. Since Hufnagel returned to the CFL, he has made Buono look a second tier Head Coach and GM. His 88-37-1 mark gives him a career winning percentage of .702, which is best among coaches with at least 100 games on the sidelines.
The Stamps have reached double digits in victories in each of Hufnagel’s eight seasons at the helm. Hufnagel’s 88 regular-season wins going into this season were 17 more than any other West team during that seven-year stretch. The Stamps went 14-4 this season, winning twice as many games as our Leos.
Hufnagel has the ability to adapt and adapt quickly. He came back to the CFL with a repuation as an innovative CFL offensive coordinator in the past. Hufnagel was the coach who introduced the spread offence to the CFL in his earlier time in Calgary. It was an offence that tore up the CFL and Hufnagel’s play book from those days has been the “Bible’ for Leos offensive football during Buono’s reign in B.C.
But Hufnagel did not return to the CFL as a pass first spread offence devotee. Instead, from his first season back in the CFL, as an offensive consultant to our B.C. Lions, Hufnagel emphased the running game and our Leos cashed in behind the legs of Joe Smith. During Hufnagel’s tenure as Head Coach, he has led the best rushing attack in the CFL during that time period. Jon Cornish has been the CFL’s dominant running back for most of those years.
Hufnagel has a shrewd eye for talent, both at the player level and the coaching level and he knows how to develop both as well. Hufnagel wisely signed Dave Dickenson, when we dumped him and skillfully mentored him into a successful offensive coordinator and the person who will succeed him.
Hufnagel hired the disparaged Rich Campbell from Edmonton and Campbell became a smart defensive coordinator who has also enjoyed outstanding success as Head Coach in Ottawa. Hufnagel took all of 15 seconds to hire Rich Stubler, when we uncerominiously dumped him. Stubler’s defensive knowledge was a key factor in the Stamps winning the Grey Cup last season and his defense was the CFL’s best this season.
Hufnagel has also drafted skillfully and traded wisely. For example, while our Leos struggled to find a center to replace Angus Reid (we tried unsuccessfully to convert Valli and Norman to the center position and had to use an import this season) Hufnagel picked up Brett Jones in the second round of the CFL draft and he went on to win Outstanding Rookie in his first season and Most Outstanding Offensive Lineman in his second season.
But Hufnagel was ready for Jones departure to the NFL. He drafted Pierre Lavertu in the first round of 2014, tradimg veteran Jon Gott to the Ottawa RedBlacks in order to acquire the top pick and the Stamps haven’t missed a beat with the physical Lavertu.
This season, Jon Cornish was expected to return from his concussion after the bye week but Hufnagel took no chances in wanting to protect Bo Levi Mitchell. Hufnagel shipped rookie kicker Tyler Crapigna, a 2016 third-rounder, as well as a unnamed negotiation-list player to the Riders for Messam and a 5th round pick, wanting to be sure that he would be able to keep the offensive ratio intact and play two import defensive tackles. Cornish was unable to return, Messam has continued his fine play this season, and the Stamps have been able to play two import tackles. It was another very wise move on the part of Hufnagel.
Those kinds of decisions, and there are many more, are the reason why Buono has been playing second fiddle to Hufnagel since Hufnagel returned to the CFL.
If we are going to win this game, we will have to at least match the smarts of Hugnagel in terms of preparation, game planning, and in game adjustments.
THE EXPERIENCE FACTOR
Certainly there is a lot of discussion about the play of rookie Jonathan Jennings prior to the Western Semi-Final for good reason. In his six games as the club’s starter, the six-foot, 195-pound former Saginaw Valley State star ranks third overall in passing yards – behind Ottawa’s Henry Burris and Edmonton’s Mike Reilly – but stands first in TD strikes (15) and quarterback efficiency (108.9).
Jennings, 23, became just the sixth quarterback in league history to exceed 1,000 yards passing in his first three starts, Only Jeff Garcia and Tobin Rote threw for more yards than Jennings’ total of 1,017 over that span.But it’s also important to remember that he has only 6 pro starts and no pro playoff experience.
Calgary will start Bo Levi Mitchell. Last season everyone expected Drew Tate to take over the reigns in Calgary. But Hufnagel chose Mitchell instead. Mitchell went on to set a number of club and league records, including the best record for a starting quarterback in league history (12 wins, 1 loss), as well as becoming the Grey Cup MVP. Mitchell has continued his fine play this season.
Mitchell will also be throwing to the CFL’s leading receiver in Rogers. The Stamps have also replaced Cornish with Jerome Messam, who finished the season in almost a dead heat with Andrew Harris in combined yards. And even though Harris ran for over 1,000 yards, our Leos finished 8th in rushing this season. A rookie quarterback’s best friend is often a solid ground attack, but even with Andrew Harris our Leos were 8th in overall rushing this season,
Jennings will also be playing the CFL’s best defense. Once again Stubler has taken a defence and made it an outstanding one very quickly. Stubler’s defense last year was good enough to help win a Grey Cup for Calgary.Jennings will face a Calgary defence that allowed a league-low 16.1 points per game.
Jennings will have to play well, we’ll need an excellent offensive game plan, and we’ll need to come up with big plays, as we have recently, in order to defeat a very good defense that should be well prepared for our tendencies.
We will only be able to overcome Calgary's experience with inspired play, as well as not making stupid mistakes or taking dum penalties. A lot of things will need to go right in order for Calgary's experience to not be a factor.
DEFENSE, SPECIAL TEAMS, TURNOVERS
Usually playoff football comes down to defense, special teams play, and turnovers. While our defense has improved a lot of late, our defense goes into this game 8th against the rush and 6th against the pass.
Our special teams have been more than wanting. We don’t even know for sure if we will go back to the struggling Leone or Fera, who missed two field goals in his only game he played this season but punted well.
Our special teams have been a disaster in terms of preparation under McMann. Chris Rainey’s ability to take one all the way. Leone’s punting abilities, and Lokombo’s downfield tacklng have been the only bright spots. Calgary counters with the return of Tim Brown, who will bring back an added dimension to Calgary;s return units.
B.C.Lionfan always wisely points out the importance of turnovers. Calgary gave up the least amount of turnovers this season while our Leos finished 8th in that category. In terms of takeaways, Calgary finished 2nd in the CFL while our Leos finished 6th. Calgary was Plus 9 in the giveaway/ takeaway stats while our Leos finished a Minus 9.
If we want to win this game, our Leos defense cannot go conservative and passive as we did for most of the season under Mark Washington. Calgary will sustain long drives with their ability to run and to hit the underneath stuff consistently. We can't afford to play Buono conservative defensive football. If we want to win, we have to play aggressive, smart defense or the edge will go to Calgary's offence.
McMann must have our special teams prepared or someone like Tedford will have to and we’ll need some key special teams plays. Finally, we will need to win the turnover battle. Calgary is too good without our special teams giving us an edge.
WRAP
Almost every factor favors Calgary to win this game. But the playoffs are a new season and our Leos believe they can do it, which is important. An exciting rookie quarterback, the inspired play of Arsenault in the second half of the season, the addition of Hawkins, and the involvement of Tedford in our offence all provide hope.
Our recent defensive play, with more aggressive play calls at times, the tenacity of Brooks, the addition of Minter, the use of Westerman inside, a better defensive line rotation, increased quarterback pressures and sacks (often with the use of the blitz), the proper utilization of Bighill, and more assertive play in the secondary, due to increased pressure up front, also provide hope.
Who knows? Calgary will have to more than show up. A good early start to the game is critical. Its November. Its playoff football. Go Leos!!
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