Travis Lulay and the long ball

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B.C.FAN
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There has been considerable discussion this season (and in previous seasons) about Travis Lulay's struggles with the long ball. Lulay has never been great at throwing the long ball. In past seasons, he often seemed to lack the arm strength to get the ball downfield. This year, there has been much discussion of his penchant for overthrowing deep receivers, perhaps due to a change in mechanics. I don't have any great insights into those issues but others have offered their thoughts and are free to expand upon them here.

What I wanted to do in this thread is put Lulay's struggles into some context. We focus closely on the Lions and notice when Lulay misses an open receiver but we may not notice when opposing QBs do the same thing. The fact is that throwing a deep pass is a low-percentage play. The league doesn't keep stats on how often teams try to throw the deep ball, only on the number of passes they complete of 30 yards or more. There aren't many such completions. Even at that, some of those are pass and run plays such as the 52-yard TD that the Argos' Diontae Spencer scored against Saskatchewan this weekend.

Lulay's two deep TD passes against Edmonton on Thursday doubled his previous output. His only previous TD pass of over 30 yards was to Austin Collie four weeks ago. In six games this year, the Lions have completed six passes of 30 yards or more (TDs or non-TDs), for an average of 1.0 per game. League-wide through this weekend, teams are averaging just under 1.5 long completions per game, so Lulay's performance against Edmonton was better than average, at least when measured in number of successful deep pass plays. The Lions are still tied with Ottawa and Edmonton for the lowest average of 1.0 deep pass plays per game. Here are the full rankings through Week 7:

AVERAGE 30-YD PASS PLAYS PER GAME
Tor 2.0
Cal 1.8
Ham 1.8
Mon 1.8
Sas 1.7
Win 1.1
B.C. 1.0
Edm 1.0
Ott 1.0
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Toppy Vann
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Vic Rapp used to say something like this: When you throw the long pass, three things can happen and two of the are bad.

What Rapp was doing was to put the long bomb into the right context as a lower % play unless you have a guy wide open.

None of them by BC Fan's stats are hitting the long ball that much as it is hard to do when the pressure is on.

Why we persist with Lulay tossing it downfield over and over with no success is beyond sensible.
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B.C.FAN
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I just watched the Hamilton-Winnipeg game on PVR. Hamilton has been one of the league's most successful big-play passing teams this year but unofficially Zach Collaros was just 1 for 5 on the long ball, for a 58-yard TD to Terence Toliver. Two other long passes were overthrown and two were knocked down. Hamilton also had a 33-yard pass-and-run to Bakari Grant on a scramble play in the flat. Winnipeg, despite trailing 31-0 at one point and using three QBs in the game, did not attempt a long pass that I noticed. Their longest pass completion was 25 yards.
Solar Max
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B.C.FAN wrote:I just watched the Hamilton-Winnipeg game on PVR. Hamilton has been one of the league's most successful big-play passing teams this year but unofficially Zach Collaros was just 1 for 5 on the long ball, for a 58-yard TD to Terence Toliver. Two other long passes were overthrown and two were knocked down. Hamilton also had a 33-yard pass-and-run to Bakari Grant on a scramble play in the flat. Winnipeg, despite trailing 31-0 at one point and using three QBs in the game, did not attempt a long pass that I noticed. Their longest pass completion was 25 yards.
We were at this game last night, and I was impressed with Collaros' arm strength and accuracy. In practice before the game he seemed to be throwing 60-70.
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WestCoastJoe
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It seems to me that an offence has to stretch the field. You have to throw long at times. You must pressure the defence with your passing game (Leaving the running game out of this discussion).

So Lulay and our offence do throw long. His arm strength actually looks OK. Not great but OK. Accuracy? Not sure. The overthrows do make it something of a safer play. And they do achieve the purpose of stretching the field. (I agree with BCF's observation that they are low percentage, but all teams use them.)

On the TD to Manny, Lulay threw a beautiful pass. Yes, he did. Relatively long. On the pass to Harris he threw a beauty. Yes he did. With the length and speed of Dexter McCoil, however, he almost got a long arm in there to deflect the ball.

Who knows what Lulay might be going through with the inner game of passing the football? He has had major issues with the health of his shoulder. He has faced the possible end of his playing career. And maybe he is just having issues with accuracy as happens to baseball pitchers also.

My view ... Keep on slinging. Our offence shows potential. We certainly seem to have the makings of a powerful run game. Solid, no nonsense blocking. Great reads and physically gifted runs by the still underrated Andrew Harris. Although we seem to lack a roster of speed burners at receiver, the guys we have are capable. Bottom line vs the Eskimos: Lulay threw two TD passes against the toughest defence in the league. And we won. Our offence also generated a 3rd TD punching it in from short.

I have hope for our offence. Lulay does seem to be pressing. And that is understandable in my view.
...........

Bigger picture: Our guys play hard. No quit in this team. A credit to the coaches. Thoroughly organized.

O. It would obviously be desirable if we could develop/maintain some passing game consistency. Keep up the solid running game.

D. Slow down the opposing offences. How? As noted a million times or so, this fan would like to see more pressure on the QB and on the LOS. But there is still time for Mark W to make his system work. We will see.

STs. I suppose it could use a thread of its own. Not much love expressed for the loyal, hard working Chuck McMann on this site. But he is a lifer as a football coach.
John Madden's Team Policies: Be on time. Pay attention. Play like hell on game day.

Jimmy Johnson's Game Keys: Protect the ball. Make plays.

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MexicoLionFan
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Really, when you throw the long ball FOUR things can happen and 2 are "good", as you have to add what Joe mentioned that throwing the long ball forces DBs to honour the backpedal and keep them from "jumping" underneath routes...it stretches the field and that has tremendous value to all the underneath stuff.

And while BCFAN is right that traditionally the deep pass is a relatively low % play, when receivers are open (uncontested), it should be the SAME as a short or intermediate throw. All professional QBs must hit open receivers regardless of where they are on the field. As I mentioned before, there is a touch that QBs put on almost every deep ball...its subtle, but its there nonetheless. Lulay is being given not only time to throw the ball, but he is also being given vision and space to properly step into his deep throws as well, so there shouldn't be any issue with the deep throw. If you would like to try an experiment in your yard or at a park, grab a football and take notice that wherever you point your elbow and the "follow through" of your throwing hand, that's EXACTLY where the ball will go, no matter what. And when you step into your throws onto your pivot foot, you control the elevation of the throw. So by simply pointing your elbow to the receiver and stepping into your pivot foot you will throw a level, accurate pass every time, even if the ball wobbles out of your hand (you will eliminate the wobble by following through firmly with your throwing hand)...I guarantee it! So if you can do it, so can Travis Lulay...what he needs right now is effective QB COACHING perhaps for the first time in his career, that will force him to be conscious of his throwing habits until such time as these new motions become second nature. Because honestly, throwing a football IS NOT HARD...standing in the pocket with a 300 lb. Lineman bearing down on you with limited vision is! So with Lulay being given time, vision and space, there just aren't any excuses for his inaccuracy...there really aren't UNLESS his throwing shoulder has been injured to a point where his arm and shoulder are not completing their rotation accurately, and that's a structural issue that might not be able to be overcome without MORE surgery.
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sj-roc
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Here are some stats the league published today (Mon, through Wk7) comparing QBs on their per drive productivity for yardage (n.b., this is NOT passing yardage but team offence under their QBing), TDs and points scored.

Image

Lulay has the most offensive series (84) among all QBs, so it's perhaps not too surprising he's within 120yds of the net offensive yardage leader — there are in fact several QBs clustered near the top in the 2000-2150yds range — and in the category of percentage of drives culminating in TDs he ranks third at 16.7% behind Kevin Glenn (now 6-gamed and replaced by Brett Smith who languishes last in the category among qualifiers) and Trevor Harris.

He ranks 7th in net yds offence per possession at 24.2 but it's not fully obvious know what to make of this stat when the numbers are fairly tightly clustered once you get past Glenn, considering that consistently good field position and an ability to draw defensive fouls actually conspire to worsen this productivity stat (conversely if you surrender penalty yardage on TD drives this inflates the stat). Edm's Matt Nichols for example ranks 9th but as I mentioned the other day his team starts more drives beyond midfield than any other.

On points per drive he sits middle of the pack at 5th with 1.68 but it's again worth noting the separation from one rank to the next isn't always that much. And in spite of Cgy's well-documented success with 2PCs it hasn't helped elevate them in PPD ranking as their principal starter BLM ranks slightly below Lulay.

The documentation with these stats isn't 100% clear but it seems a QB still gets credit for a TD drive even if (for example) the backup or 3rd stringer is the one who closes it from short yardage via pass, handoff or sneak. The above table accounts for 110 of the league's 122 offensive TDs so far in 2015 and doesn't include those from QBs who have missed long stretches with injury (Durant, Crompton, etc) or who have mainly been backups (e.g. Franklin, Tate).
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
chewiesrevenge
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Mexicolionfan... it's way more complex.

For starters. Some injuries can't be fixed to 100%. Some can't be fixed to even 50% and some body parts can't be repaired at all. The damage done to Lulay's shoulder isn't the kind that can be simply surgically repaired to 100%. Even WITH the surgical intervention, the chances of a 100% return to normal was minimal. The second injury last season he did not opt to have any procedure... because nothing could be done. The damage can't be repaired. All Lulay can do is strengthen the muscles around the joint to support it, decrease any scar tissue, regular RMT to promote blood circulation, and stretching and mobility work to keep the fascia healthy.

The by product of this... is that he has changed the motion path/mechanics of his throws. Or at least the majority on them. He has relearned to throw. His accuracy was average passing from the pocket to begin with. Now throw in a weaker, damaged shoulder with new throwing physiology... and it's not a simple 'go out to the back yard and learn to throw a football'.

Also... MANY extremely successful athletes at the tops of their game have developed skill with unorthodox mechanics/techniques. But what matters is their hand/eye reaction and accuracy.

Mike Tyson, Mayweather were unorthodox fighters. David Robinson had an unorthodox jumpshot and freethrow but was one of the most dominate big men of his era. Dominek Hasek in Hockey. Piros Dimas in Olympic Lifting.The list goes on.

Dickenson threw many 'wounded ducks' and wobblers... but the crucial thing is that he could get the ball exactly from A to B the majority of the time. Kevin Glenn has a bit of a sidearm hitch on some of his throws and his career has had success... and the lack thereof not regarding his throwing motion. I agree that proper mechanics should be taught. But some things can only be taught and then natural ability supercedes... like the innate hand/eye accuracy, tracking, depth perception.

I love watching a good pocket passer with great mechanics pick apart a defence: Ricky Ray, A Calvillo, Dickenson. But Travis aint one. And he never will. He excels in his competitive will, athletic insticts. Not hand/eye accuracy throwing. No matter how you dress a duck....

I do hope he gets in a rhythm and finds some consistency. But I'm not holding my breath. And scary to think the franchise isn't really developing anyone when Lulay has such a long leash. Stats aside, Lulay is prob the worst starting QB in the league right now re: throwing. Watch any other game and you won't see any other QB's miss so badly so often. :/
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MexicoLionFan
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chewiesrevenge wrote:Mexicolionfan... it's way more complex.

For starters. Some injuries can't be fixed to 100%. Some can't be fixed to even 50% and some body parts can't be repaired at all. The damage done to Lulay's shoulder isn't the kind that can be simply surgically repaired to 100%. Even WITH the surgical intervention, the chances of a 100% return to normal was minimal. The second injury last season he did not opt to have any procedure... because nothing could be done. The damage can't be repaired. All Lulay can do is strengthen the muscles around the joint to support it, decrease any scar tissue, regular RMT to promote blood circulation, and stretching and mobility work to keep the fascia healthy.

The by product of this... is that he has changed the motion path/mechanics of his throws. Or at least the majority on them. He has relearned to throw. His accuracy was average passing from the pocket to begin with. Now throw in a weaker, damaged shoulder with new throwing physiology... and it's not a simple 'go out to the back yard and learn to throw a football'.

Also... MANY extremely successful athletes at the tops of their game have developed skill with unorthodox mechanics/techniques. But what matters is their hand/eye reaction and accuracy.

Mike Tyson, Mayweather were unorthodox fighters. David Robinson had an unorthodox jumpshot and freethrow but was one of the most dominate big men of his era. Dominek Hasek in Hockey. Piros Dimas in Olympic Lifting.The list goes on.

Dickenson threw many 'wounded ducks' and wobblers... but the crucial thing is that he could get the ball exactly from A to B the majority of the time. Kevin Glenn has a bit of a sidearm hitch on some of his throws and his career has had success... and the lack thereof not regarding his throwing motion. I agree that proper mechanics should be taught. But some things can only be taught and then natural ability supercedes... like the innate hand/eye accuracy, tracking, depth perception.

I love watching a good pocket passer with great mechanics pick apart a defence: Ricky Ray, A Calvillo, Dickenson. But Travis aint one. And he never will. He excels in his competitive will, athletic insticts. Not hand/eye accuracy throwing. No matter how you dress a duck....

I do hope he gets in a rhythm and finds some consistency. But I'm not holding my breath. And scary to think the franchise isn't really developing anyone when Lulay has such a long leash. Stats aside, Lulay is prob the worst starting QB in the league right now re: throwing. Watch any other game and you won't see any other QB's miss so badly so often. :/
Yes, I largely agree...I don't think you understood my point about his injury. As someone who had his career ended by similar operations on my rotator cuff I know full well that the shoulder cavity will never be the same. However, Lulay can improve the basics of his throwing mechanics to good effect. As Blitz has pointed out time and again, Lulay doesn't necessarily have awful mechanics, he has awfully inconsistent mechanics, which is why I believe that he needs COACHING/TEACHING even at this stage of his career.
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Toppy Vann
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MLF has written in the past on the problems with injuries to the throwing arm.

I'm very suspicious that Lulay's not the same confident, competent QB for two other reasons:

1. He might be struggling with Cortez's thinking.

The offense is not suiting his strengths and he's struggling to believe - and if you don't believe in the system and play calls - you will fail more than succeed. When he's throwing the predictable ball deep into a lot of coverage how can he have faith. When he does get a wide open guy he's messing up.

As Dickenson has stressed with his QB since he had some issues early on 'you have to trust what you see and trust that guy to do his job and make the play.' I'm not sure Lulay has the feeling.

2. He's got a good OLine for the most part but he's not got a great corps of Receivers fighting for balls and getting open. Basically it's him and Andrew Harris with any life or spark.

I think there is something lacking in this team in the way of character in that group of REC. It's not that any are bad people or cancerous - it just seems none of them ignite their team with a big play or show much fight.
"Ability without character will lose." - Marv Levy
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Toppy Vann
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Something is going on with the Lions HC and one of the O line according to Lowell Ullrich of The Province and with another nicked LT a change coming for Lulay to worry about in Hamilton where Steinhauer has more blitz packages than even Chris Jones or it seemed that way last game:
Jeff Tedford still doesn’t know if he’ll have an import to play left tackle for the Lions against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, but his options will no longer include rookie Josh Aladenoye, who will be cut by the CFL team, it was learned Wednesday.

The 24-year-old practice roster offensive lineman was not present at practice after having one more confrontation with Tedford than the coach was prepared to tolerate, according to a club source.

Tedford didn’t want to elaborate on his reasons for the move. “There’s a pool of (pending NFL cuts) out there now and we needed to make a move in order to bring someone else in,” he said.

Aladenoye had not dressed for a game as the Lions await the return of non-import Hunter Steward, who has had his walking boot removed after foot surgery but is still not in a position to practise.

Import starting left tackle Tommie Draiheim, who has had an ankle problem, missed practice for a second straight day, but instead of Aladenoye at his spot the Lions gave the reps to former Hamilton lineman Cody Husband.All games TSN
The rest of the story is about Leone and even mentions Sean Whyte:

http://www.theprovince.com/sports/footb ... story.html
"Ability without character will lose." - Marv Levy
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B.C.FAN
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It's tough being an American backup tackle on this team. You need to patiently work hard and bide your time until an injury or performance issue creates an opening. Some guys can't accept that. Get impatient and you're gone, just like Jermarcus Hardrick and Andre Ramsey.
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WestCoastJoe
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As someone who takes a strong interest in O Line play, this fan really likes Tommie Draheim. Hope he can play versus the Tabby-Cats.
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Jimmy Johnson's Game Keys: Protect the ball. Make plays.

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Bosco
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Right now, Travis looks like a pitcher who has no command of the strike zone. He overthrows / underthrows receivers and much like a struggling pitcher, is not quite sure where the tosses will end up.
Solar Max
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Bosco wrote:Right now, Travis looks like a pitcher who has no command of the strike zone. He overthrows / underthrows receivers and much like a struggling pitcher, is not quite sure where the tosses will end up.
This.
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