Comparison of offensive production, 2014 & 2015

The Place for BC Lion Discussion. A forum for Lions fans to talk and chat about our team.
Discussion, News, Information and Speculation regarding the BC Lions and the CFL.
Prowl, Growl and Roar!

Moderator: Team Captains

Post Reply
User avatar
sj-roc
Hall of Famer
Posts: 7539
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 2:39 pm
Location: Kerrisdale

With the league adopting several new rules to boost offence/entertainment value and being almost quarterway through the 2015 campaign I think we have enough data now to start comparing the current situation to what it was at this point last year, through 16 games (4 weeks).

Here's a table breaking down the aggregate of all offensive series leaguewide and how each drive concluded. There are several ways this can happen: a punt; a TD; FGAs made or missed; turnovers through INT, fumble (which as per league scoring rules includes all blocked kicks that fail to cross LOS) or on downs; or a safety touch. There are also drives for which the half ends before any of these results occur; these are denoted EOH for end-of-half. I've also noted the average field position of all drives (AFP) and broken down points scored by offences, combined special teams and defences (which are credited with safeties), and total. In these breakdowns, converts are categorised according to how their corresponding TDs were scored.

Image

The first thing to note is that the total number of offensive drives is down almost 10% from 488 to 444, which is a positive. With equal numbers of games compared, this means offences on average are doing a better job of sustaining drives, before we even consider whether these culminate in scores. I don't have the data handy to prove it but one would think that both the number of plays and elapsed game time, per offensive series, have surely increased from last year to this. One of the league's goals with the rule changes were to improve the flow of the game by reducing the near-constant exchange of 2 & outs and they appear to have succeeded toward this end.

Next, the numbers of punts is down, which with a lower base of series is to be expected on an absolute level. But we're also seeing it even on a relative level, with a drop of nearly 8 percentage points in how often teams are punting, from about 52% of the time to 44%. This is consistent with the increase in FGAs (on a percentage basis) and offensive TDs (on even an absolute level), which is happening in spite of the increase in aborted (EOH) offensive drives.

Interestingly we're also seeing slightly more turnovers. The combination of INTs and lost fumbles is the same on an absolute level — 51 both now and 2014, with the boost in INTs offset by fewer fumbles. But there are also more TODs. Aside from on failed 3rd & short gambles throughout the game, this latter type of TO generally occurs relatively late in a close game where teams are gambling to improve their chances in a still-winable game. Consistent with this, 13 of 17 TODs so far in 2015 have come in Q4, campared to 8 of 13 last year.

One might also note (not included in the table) the average margin of victory through Wk4 last year was 15.3pts. Over the same period this year, it has shrunk almost in half to just 8.7pts. Only 4 of 16 games so far this have been won by 16pts+. This time last year it was 7. Comparing the number of games won by 8 or less, we have 9 this year (over half of all games) but only 6 last year (barely one third).

The average field position for offences has become almost two yards worse, and I'm not sure what to make of this. I suspect it's statistically insignificant at this stage but others are free to draw their own conclusions. At any rate the slightly worse AFP seems not be hampering offences in their scoring abilities. Not surprisingly with the boost in TDs on offence, points scored has increased by about 10%, on offence and overall. I haven't bothered to break down the effect of the new convert rules. It seems we're seeing more 2PCs attempted and scored, but to what extent these are offset by the increase in failed 1PCs, I haven't checked.

Overall, one might wonder if offensive performance has improved because Ott is now in its second year and their team play has improved overall with already as many wins so far this year as all of last. But whatever ineptitude one might ascribe to their 2014 offence as an expansion team, their defence was also correspondingly weaker and more susceptible to scores that have been included in the above analysis (although you wouldn't know it from the game we played there last year!), so there should be a cancellation effect in play.

The conclusion to me from all of this is that the league's rule changes appear to be having the desired effect of increased offence as measured by almost any metric. Moreover, whether or not the league aimed to achieve it, parity also seems to have increased with an average margin of victory barely half that of a year ago.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
User avatar
B.C.FAN
Team Captain
Posts: 12579
Joined: Mon Nov 15, 2004 10:28 pm

sj-roc wrote:The conclusion to me from all of this is that the league's rule changes appear to be having the desired effect of increased offence as measured by almost any metric. Moreover, whether or not the league aimed to achieve it, parity also seems to have increased with an average margin of victory barely half that of a year ago.
Great Data. I concur with your conclusion. Scoring is up (touchdowns I particular) and punting is down.

I believe the league will also release data this week showing that the number of penalties per game is dropping. If they can sustain higher scoring games without an on-field flag fest, the rule changes will have served their purpose.
Qman
Champion
Posts: 932
Joined: Wed May 02, 2012 12:59 pm
Location: Section 240

Great job.


I think it shows that there are less 2 and outs this year. drives are a few more plays ... trickling down to 2% mores TD, 2% more FGs, 2% more INT, etc ... and fewer punts because drives are longer (taking more time) or ending in another result.

I believe suits said last game that plays from scrimmage per team are up by 2plays (this might have more to do with changes in the play clock this year) or more close games (more plays in last 3 minutes)
User avatar
DanoT
Hall of Famer
Posts: 4309
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:38 pm
Location: Victoria, B.C. in summer, Sun Peaks Resort in winter

Qman wrote:Great job.


I think it shows that there are less 2 and outs this year. drives are a few more plays ... trickling down to 2% mores TD, 2% more FGs, 2% more INT, etc ... and fewer punts because drives are longer (taking more time) or ending in another result.

I believe suits said last game that plays from scrimmage per team are up by 2plays (this might have more to do with changes in the play clock this year) or more close games (more plays in last 3 minutes)
What did they change about the play clock this year?
User avatar
sj-roc
Hall of Famer
Posts: 7539
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 2:39 pm
Location: Kerrisdale

Thanks for the comments, guys.
DanoT wrote:
Qman wrote:Great job.


I think it shows that there are less 2 and outs this year. drives are a few more plays ... trickling down to 2% mores TD, 2% more FGs, 2% more INT, etc ... and fewer punts because drives are longer (taking more time) or ending in another result.

I believe suits said last game that plays from scrimmage per team are up by 2plays (this might have more to do with changes in the play clock this year) or more close games (more plays in last 3 minutes)
What did they change about the play clock this year?
I think he's referring to offences now having the option to have play whistled in soon as they're ready to scrimmage (e.g., if they're not making any subs), rather than having to wait for the ref's whistle, which presumably should increase the number of plays per game (ppg), all else being equal.

I had a look at this ppg stat for the same set of games in my OP. The play-by-play descriptions for these are all still online with all plays numbered in order so I just took the sequential number of the final play for each game rather than take time to check all that counting (I have seen errors in these counts occasionally).

In 2014 through 16gms it ranged from 147 to 167 ppg with a mean of 154.3 and a median of 154.5. Equivalently, an average play takes 3600/154.3 = 23.34 seconds.

In 2015 through 16gms it ranged from 143 to 163 ppg with a mean of 152.7 and a median of 151.0. Equivalently, an average play takes 3600/152.7 = 23.58 seconds.

So there are actually slightly fewer ppg so far this year but my impression is this stat can be sensitive to what happens post-3MW where the game clock timekeeping rules change and teams are more likely to use timeouts, so the lapsed game time per play is a lot less than in the other 54 minutes of game time.

It should also be noted I have neglected the OT plays in the two Ssk games that were so extended which yielded a further 33 plays on six extra series. Throwing these back into the mix:

In 2015 through 16gms it ranged from 143 to 173 ppg with a mean of 154.8 and a median of 151.5. Equivalently, an average play takes 3600/154.8 = 23.26 seconds (but this neglects the lack of OT game clock timekeeping, so the real value could still be less, but likelier more, than in 2014).

While this does push the mean above the 2014 baseline (for which there was no OT played through 16gms) it's still not as great as the increase attributed to Suitor. It's possible there could be counting errors in the online stats although I don't know if these would be serious enough to bring about an increase of two extra ppg upon correction.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
User avatar
B.C.FAN
Team Captain
Posts: 12579
Joined: Mon Nov 15, 2004 10:28 pm

As expected, the league has released figures showing the number of penalties has declined steadily through the first four weeks of the season as players and officials adjust to the new rules.

Penalties per game 2015
Week 1: 30.0
Week 2: 28.0
Week 3: 27.5
Week 4: 23.0

Previous seasons
2014: 21.6
2013: 18.4
2012: 19.3

Through four weeks, scoring is up 11%, net offence is up 9% and passing yardage is up 13%. All signs are pointing in the right direction.
User avatar
sj-roc
Hall of Famer
Posts: 7539
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 2:39 pm
Location: Kerrisdale

Our last game was the 41st on the league's schedule of 81 reg season games and also our 9th which puts us at the midway point of the campaign, a good time for another look at how offences are faring compared to halfway through last year. Here's my read on the numbers:

Image

Continuing on the themes I raised from my OP:

:football: Fewer, longer-sustained drives (down almost 6%, almost two full fewer changes of possession per game on average)

:football: Fewer punts even on a relative rather than absolute comparison (down over five percentage points)

:football: TDs are up more than 3pp (I haven't looked closely but we're also seeing more TDs on D/ST this year)

:football: FGs and FGAs have a slightly smaller share of the pie in 2015

:football: Turnovers are up 1.7 percentage points but it's not an even increase across the board. We're seeing fewer lost fumbles, but more INTs and TODs. TODs of the failed 3rd & short variety (as opposed to last-gasp 3rd & long gambles late in the game) in particular are through the roof this year.

:football: Scoring on offence is up 9.3% and up 9.7% overall comparing the first 41gms of 2014 & 2015.

So far in 2015, there have only been seven games in which 2 or less TDs were scored on offence. Last year at this time that figure was 12 (one game even had none, which hasn't happened so far this year). 23 of the first 41 games of 2014 had at least 4 offensive TDs, which has increased to 30 this year.

In 2014, only two of the first 41 games had less than 10 punts, with seven games having 20 or more. By comparison, these numbers in 2015 are seven and four, respectively.

Six of the first 41 games of 2014 had a total or 30 or less points scored, but there are only two such games in 2015.

The rule change to encourage offences to dictate the pace of play might have been expected to increase the number of plays per game but this hasn't happened. Through 41 games in 2014 there were 6323 total plays, but a slight drop to 6290 this year. The median plays per game stat sits at 152 in 2015, compared to 154 in 2014.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
User avatar
B.C.FAN
Team Captain
Posts: 12579
Joined: Mon Nov 15, 2004 10:28 pm

Nice job again. I agree that the rule changes appear to be having the desired effect of increasing offensive production.

The much-anticipated move to hurry-offences appears to have been much ado about nothing. There was much anticipation about the Lions' use of an H-back who could be deployed as a tight end or traditional slotback, creating mismatches and keeping defences off guard while the Lions ran a hurry-up offence without switching personnel. That whole scheme has now been abandoned, at least for this year, with the release of A.C. Leonard. Similarly, on defence, the Lions used Adam Bighill as an extra DB on passing situations instead of switching personnel and bringing in a dime back. That has been another bust.

Average starting field position is an insignificant stat in the broad sense, even on a team-by-team basis, in that everything tends to even out over the course of the season. Some teams have positive turnover margin, some have great kickers, some have great returners, some take a lot of penalties on special teams. In the end, there's not much difference. Ottawa has the worst average starting position at their own 33 yard line. Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton have the best, at the 38 yard line. Hamilton and B.C. are in the middle, with an average starting field position of the the 35 yard line, despite Hamilton's league-leading +18 turnover margin and the presence of dangerous returner Speedy Banks.

On a game-to-game basis, starting field position is much more important, with turnovers and big returns often leading directly to points. League-wide, there are strong correlations between starting field position and the likelihood of scoring a touchdown. On average, 15.5% of drives result in a touchdown, but only 62% of drives starting inside a team's own 20 yard line are successful, while 27.5% of drives starting in the opponent's half of the field result in a touchdown.
Post Reply