New Argo Boss Says NFL Coming To T.O....Eventually

[Toppy Vann]

http://www.nationalpost.com/Keep+Canada ... story.html

As this story about Senator Larry Campbell's last bid in 2008 to keep out the NFL says - it might be hard to be protectionist on this issue and quotes Marc Lalonde the Lib. Cabinet Minister who sabre rattled years earlier - but concludes as an international commercial arbitration lawyer even now that this might not be possible today.

I would have believed the US Congress would block the NFL to Toronto given cities in the USA who wants teams but with the kind of right wingers dominating their Senate and House, I'm no longer that confident.

I would love to see the CFL strengthen by moving into Quebec City and if Toronto can't get it's act together - then who knows. They've not been much of a positive influence (due to empty building) even though their teams, coaching and GM do a very good job. But TSN is HQ'd in Toronto and that makes them in the CFL needed.

I'm less of a 'We must have the original teams' than I am 'we MUST have solid franchises in places fans and sponsors are supportive.

[sj-roc]

http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/nfl ... falo-bills

How buying the Toronto Argos might move the city closer to obtaining an NFL team, if not the Buffalo Bills
Scott Stinson | May 22, 2015 8:32 PM ET

Less than a year ago, Larry Tanenbaum was one of the principals in a bid to purchase the NFL’s Buffalo Bills. Alongside the Rogers family and singer/celebrity sports fan Jon Bon Jovi, his group made it to the short list of potential Bills buyers, although by all accounts the billion-dollar bid from eventual winner Terry Pegula was never seriously threatened.

The Tanenbaum/Bon Jovi/Rogers bid was more notable for the fact that it was accompanied by speculation that it aimed to bring the Bills to Toronto, which upset a great number of people in Western New York. Bon Jovi backed out, the process moved on, and Pegula won and vowed to keep the team in Buffalo(ish).

This week, Tanenbaum actually did buy a professional football team, and it will involve a Toronto move, but only from one part of the city to another. But with his purchase, along with Bell Canada, of the Toronto Argonauts, it is worth noting that one of the key elements of the oft-mentioned NFL-to-Toronto storyline has now been satisfied: the Argos are squared away, with plans to tuck them into BMO Field. That means the NFL would be seen as less of a threat. And it could mean an opening.

At a Bloomberg economic conference in Toronto on Thursday, Tanenbaum, chairman of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, said he still sees the NFL in this city at some point in the future, though the timing is very uncertain. “They still see Canada as an obvious choice for an NFL team,” he said, according to a report in The Toronto Star, but added that he is presently focused on MLSE and the Argos.

Through an MLSE spokesman, Tanenbaum on Friday declined to comment any further, saying he didn’t have anything more to add.

But that does not prevent us from speculating.

Any talk of the NFL coming to Toronto in recent years has always been accompanied by the caveat that commissioner Roger Goodell, who grew up nearby in upstate New York, wants no part of a move that would deal a serious blow to the Canadian Football League. As long as the future of the Argos was in doubt, which has been the case for at least a decade, the NFL was obviously a major threat to the CFL’s prospects in this city. Had the NFL suddenly arrived, the Argos would have gone from a money-losing franchise in search of a more suitable home stadium, to a money-losing franchise in search of a stadium that was competing with a juggernaut franchise that plays the same sport.

This week’s news assuages some of those concerns. With the Argonauts now owned, pending completion of the transaction, by Tanenbaum and Bell, the franchise appears as secure as it has been in recent memory. While it’s far from certain that the move to BMO Field will create the fan interest in the Argos that has failed to materialize under successive owners, the new group has committed a lot of money to take a shot at it. Bell, in particular, should be particularly motivated to keep the Argos afloat, since a stronger Toronto franchise brings more value to the CFL’s media rights, which Bell holds.

Which means that someone — and have I mentioned that we’re speculating here? — who was, say, the owner of the CFL franchise could take a run at the NFL with little fear that success in that drive would imperil the Argos. That the NFL would be a major asset to a broadcaster is obvious in a world where live sports rights have ever-increasing value; the notion that Tanenbaum could partner now with Bell, instead of with Rogers, Bell’s MLSE corporate frenemies, in an NFL play just makes the prospect all that more juicy.

And now is the part where we must add a pile of provisos and caveats. With the Bills ensconced in Buffalo, the list of potential relocation targets is short, and to the extent that any franchise movement is in the offing, the NFL is definitely going to eye Southern California before Southern Ontario. There are already proposals in play to build stadiums in the Los Angeles area, with some combination of the Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, and St. Louis Rams, or perhaps two of those teams, linked to possible moves. The Jacksonville Jaguars are forever being suggested as a candidate to move to L.A. or London — Toronto would be like splitting the difference, location-wise — although their owner says he’s committed to northern Florida.

There’s also the not-insignificant problem of the lack of an NFL-sized stadium. But if the Bills were ever going to move to Toronto, a new stadium would have been a must in that scenario, so the hurdle is one that various well-heeled folks thought could be overcome before.

None of it means the NFL here is imminent, or even likely. But things can change fast: Los Angeles had two teams, then none, and at times looked certain to get a team back and at others those bids have looked stone dead. Now they might have two teams again.

If Toronto is to enter the NFL club, there are a great many boxes that remain to be checked off. But one them, next to “Save Argonauts,” has just been ticked. And it’s a meaningful one.

Yes, but it's the LEAST meaningful one. Note to certain denizens of Toronto: someday you might actually become the WCC you aspire to be, if you'd just quit coveting what other cities have and celebrate your own.

[DanoT]

The Toronto media seem to be the leading wanabee NFL in TO proponents, while real paying NFL fans seem to be in short supply in Toronto as evidenced by the Bills in TO Flop.

The NFL does not allow corporate team ownership so it will take a real big egoed multi billionaire to bring a team to TO and they will likely need to ensure the survival of the CFL in order to satisfy NFL's US anti trust concerns.

And the media seems to overlook the fact that the Bill's territory extends to southern Ontario so any new NFL franchise or relocated team will first need to financially satisfy the Bills.

So to conclude, to bring an NFL team to TO will require:

Build a new stadium or somehow add another 20k seats to Skydome to bring it to minimum NFL standards with no government $

Insure the continued existence of the CFL=$

Satisfy the Bills territorial rights=$

The NFL in TO could end up being the most costly to acquire NFL team ever in a city that likes hockey, baseball and basketball ahead of football.

[cromartie]

It strikes me that I started commenting on this topic, oh, 14 years ago or so, so I'll try and stick to the Coles Notes version this time.

1. No one has $2 billion US sticking around for both a new stadium and the franchise expansion/purchase and relocation fees.
2. I'd compare the current value of the Loonie to the Dollar, and understand that significant currency fluctuations can significantly cut into the profitability/viability of a franchise purchased with leveraged/interest bearing monies. This is why you lost the Nordiques and damn near lost additional franchises in the 1990s.
3. The domestic US television contracts (the primary revenue generator for the league) are not enhanced with the placement of a franchise in a foreign market, and are instead further divided with the addition of a franchise that does not contribute to this pie. Any gain in Canadian television rights value is not likely to offset the additional seat at the table that subtracts from this pool.
4. It would kill the CFL. Don't think the NFL isn't concerned about it's image. A team in Toronto isn't Canada's team, it's Toronto's team and you can bet the rest of Canada is going to resent it.
5. It would kill the Bills. A not insignificant percentage of the Bills fanbase already comes from the GTA.
6. Canadians suck at adopting American products. Canadians are, in general, high samplers but not great adaptors of American products and services. The economies are fundamentally different and, as such, Canadians have less disposable income and spend less of it, on average, than Americans do. If you don't believe me, head on over to Target and grab some Toronto Phantoms gear. Then stop by Krispy Kreme for a donut on your way home.
7. No government assistance. There is no chance any provincial or federal government that wants to continue to stay in office is going to kick in financing for a stadium in the GTA.
8. Toronto is a terrible sports town. They care about the Leafs, and can generally be persuaded to occasionally show up if a particular team is winning.
9. As a market, Toronto has similar spacial problems to Los Angeles. Where are you putting this stadium that the NFL team will play in? And how do you expect a metro area that is both dense and sprawled to get there and out again?

This NFL to Toronto thing has persisted for over 40 years. It isn't happening, and it's a dream that will die with the baby boomers that keep trying to foist it upon you. Toronto, to borrow a term, is really not just Toronto, it's part of a larger megalopolis that runs from Oshawa around the lake to Rochester, NY. And that Megalopolis already has a team, the Buffalo Bills. If Buffalo gets a new stadium, you'll never have a team in Toronto. You don't need one now.

Having said all that, while the Argos are in a terrible situation in the Skydump, let's not write them off entirely. The CFL, in general, does very good television ratings in the GTA and that's a big part of what makes the CFL television contract so valuable. I'm optimistic that the attendance optics will improve when they move to BMO.

[David]

Always great to hear an American's perspective on this topic, especially one so well-informed.

Cromartie nails another one. Well done.


DH

[Toppy Vann]

Always great to hear an American's perspective on this topic, especially one so well-informed.

Cromartie nails another one. Well done.


DH

You build a pretty compelling case. I see the NFL wanting to dabble more in other international markets for jersey sales more than Toronto.

[cromartie]

You build a pretty compelling case. I see the NFL wanting to dabble more in other international markets for jersey sales more than Toronto.

Actually, I'm really just nailing the same one over and over again.

While an international team would help enhance merchandise sales, the fundamental question is whether that team would generate enough additional revenue to offset the portion of the domestic media revenue it would absorb by having a seat at the table.

Putting a team in Los Angeles is an easy decision. That's media market #2 and makes the NFL a more valuable property for the next round of media contract negotiations.

Putting a team in a foreign country requires splitting some portion of that revenue with a team that does not enhance the media viability of their primary moneymaker. That costs everyone $200 million in revenue per year right off the top (assuming a team would relocate), at a minimum, whether that team is in Toronto, London or Mexico City. There is no way to make that money back through the enhancement of Canadian media rights. And I doubt the NFL pulls that much collectively internationally at this point either (I couldn't find the value of their contract with SkySports).

I mean, you could argue that that revenue shortfall would be made up with an enhanced international broadcast rights package, increased sponsorships and licensing, but it's not a bet I'd be ready to take yet and, even so, definitely not by cannibalizing the Bills, destroying the CFL and getting myself in an ugly political mess in the first place, you know?

[Toppy Vann]

Again hard to pick any bone of contention here.

Maybe just do what soccer does. Travel in pre-season to the right markets to boost jersey/hat sales. That is what the top EPL teams are doing. Montreal Canadians go to Beijing this summer!

[cromartie]

Again hard to pick any bone of contention here.

Maybe just do what soccer does. Travel in pre-season to the right markets to boost jersey/hat sales. That is what the top EPL teams are doing. Montreal Canadians go to Beijing this summer!

I've actually had a lot of time to kill and let me kick this proposal around.

Instead of expanding the NFL regular season to 18 games, expand it to 17. Conferences alternate the extra pre-season home game every other year.

What do you do with that extra regular season game? Everyone plays at a neutral international site. 32 teams means 16 games, four games per year for four international sites. Send two divisions at a time to the international venue the week before their bye. The NFL's international presence gets a big boost, the international markets get a month's worth of games at a venue, they all count, everyone travels equally and everyone wins.

[Toppy Vann]

Again hard to pick any bone of contention here.

Maybe just do what soccer does. Travel in pre-season to the right markets to boost jersey/hat sales. That is what the top EPL teams are doing. Montreal Canadians go to Beijing this summer!

I've actually had a lot of time to kill and let me kick this proposal around.

Instead of expanding the NFL regular season to 18 games, expand it to 17. Conferences alternate the extra pre-season home game every other year.

What do you do with that extra regular season game? Everyone plays at a neutral international site. 32 teams means 16 games, four games per year for four international sites. Send two divisions at a time to the international venue the week before their bye. The NFL's international presence gets a big boost, the international markets get a month's worth of games at a venue, they all count, everyone travels equally and everyone wins.

Now that is possible. It works for a sport like football ONLY if there's money involved (ie stats count). It would be a true test of the market outside the NFL and North America.

Maybe ask Sepp Blatter and FIFA to select the sites.