Lets have a closer look at the potential outcomes, as reported in the Province, as our Leos play their last two games of the season.
This game will be a battle between the two best defenses in the CFL. Our Lions still allow the fewest points but our has dropped behind Edmonton in yards allowed because we've has been vulnerable to the run. It’s a potentially huge factor Saturday.PLAYOFF PICTURE
Here’s the scenarios facing the 9-7 Lions heading into the final two weeks of the CFL’s regular season:
Lions finish second if …
B.C. beats Edmonton by at least eight points, defeats Calgary at home Nov. 7 and Edmonton loses or ties at Saskatchewan Nov. 8.
Lions finish third if …
B.C. loses to Edmonton and finishes even in points with 9-8 Saskatchewan.
Lions finish fourth if …
B.C. loses twice and Saskatchewan wins its remaining game, sending the Lions to the crossover playoff.
On offence our Leos will have to play a lot better than we did against Winnipeg, where we were losing going into the fourth quarter. Glenn was injured in that game but will likely return to starters spot with John Beck, who threw two key touchdown passes against Winnipeg in the fourth quarter in reserve. Travis Lulay remains on the injury reserve list, a move to save our Leos money against the cap but will be pulled from the injury reserve list for the playoffs. Mike Reilly will start for Edmonton.
Kevin Glenn has thrown for 3,538 yards this season while Reilly has tossed passes for less yardage at 3,039 yards. Reilly spots a slightly better passing average (64.9%) to Glenn's 62.7% and also has a slightly better quarterback efficiency average(89.0) to Glenn's 86.8%
Offensively Edmonton has scored 438 points to our 361 points. Edmonton averages 354 yard of offence per game to our 338 yards. Edmonton has given up 313 points while we have given up less at 295 points. Edmonton has moved into 1st place in the CFL in terms of least yards against, only giving up 296 yds per game to our 292 yards against. Overall, looking at points for and against for both teams, the odds favor Edmonton.
Sol E. has an opportunity in this game to break the CFL record for tackles in a season. Marsh tried to practice this week but will be out for this game as a starter again (and perhaps may not get his spot back with Yell and Lee playing so well.
Here are my KEYS TO THE GAME
WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE
In the infamous words of B.C. Fan, winning the turnover battle is often the key to victory. In a game between two teams that are closely matched it becomes even more important. Our 10 sacks against Winnipeg showed what pressure can do and Parks key interception in the fourth quarter was the turning point in that game. But those sacks came against a medicore Bombers offensive lien and against a quarterback who was badly beaten up physically and mentally before that game began.
David Menard, with this two sacks last game, showed his potential and Smith still has a motor. Westerman has looked good as a starter over Mitchell but its time for Bazzie to step up this game. Odell Willis, with 13 sacks and 5 fumbles is a defensive player our offence needs to pay special attention to because his pressure can create turnovers.
Our Leos are a Plus 6 (3rd in the CFL) for the season in the takeway/giveaway category while Edmonton is close behind with a Plus 5. However, Edmonton has created more turnovers than our defense and this is an area in which we could step up.
WIN THE SPECIAL TEAMS BATTLE
A second area that can be a difference maker in a key matchup is special teams. Our Leos have finally seen the light regarding Iannuzzi as a receiver and are giving deserved opportunities to Haidara and Adekolu (who deserves reps) But step down on the depth chart for Innazuzzi, combined with the desire to use 3 imports on the offensive line and more import recievers gave Iannuzzi, the former college punt returner, a chance to be our return man last game and he took advantage of the opportunity.
Iannuuzzi has looked good in the past in his limited opportunities as a returner but last game he showed excellent potential with his 168-yard return game against the Bombers, not to mention a 92-yard kickoff return score that was called back to penalty.
WRAP
Lots of key battles in this game with two excellent defenses. My keys to the game - turnovers and special teams - could be key difference makers in a game that will likely say a lot about where each team is at, as the playoffs loom.
Go Leos go!!
