Blitz wrote:Here is a question for you B.C. Fan...and I'm very interested in your answer. I have a theory about the question I'm asking but I know you're very intelligent in looking at offence so want to defer to you.
You have noted that we run the football more than any other CFL team on first down and we have a 5.1 yard rush average, giving us a lot of second and less than five yards to go. You have also pointed out that we are 3rd in the CFL in converting second downs. So we have a lot of second and short yardage situations and we are well above average in the CFL in converting second down situations into another first down attempt. So here is the question based on the two stats you've emphazed. Why have we punted the football the most times in the CFL and why are we 6th in CFL scoring?
I also looked at our offensive turnover ratio, the area you most focus on, assuming that might me a factor. And yet our offence is 4th in the CFL in giveawys, only behind Calgary, Edmonton, and Saskatchewan.
So, in summary, we have a lot of second and short yardage situations according to your stat, we are very good at second down conversions, our giveaway ratio is not the big problem and yet we punt the football the most in the CFL (a most telling stat) and we are a bottom tier team in terms of scoring.
What do you think the reason for our offensive ineptitude is?
Like a lot of things in football, there is no single answer. I'll list three, in no particular order, and explain in more detail.
1. Field position
2. Lack of execution
3. Lack of big plays
The Lions have the second most second-down conversions and don't have a lot of 2-and-outs but also have the most punts and are seventh in scoring. This apparent inconguity in the stats can be explained by the fact the Lions have had the second highest number of possessions (214, one behind Edmonton) but only 22 of those possessions have started in the opponent's end of the field. As noted earlier in the thread, only Ottawa has had fewer drives starting in the opponent's end.
The B.C. offfence ranks third in number of plays and fifth in net yardage (Hamilton passed us last week, in more ways than one) but is not often able to sustain long drives. The Lions have to drive farther to get in scoring position but their offence is geared to the rushing and short passing game, featuring layered crossing routes that have been the bread-and-butter of the B.C. offence for many years. With defences often dropping eight or nine men into coverage, the QB checks down to his RB or underneath crosser and counts on them to get just enough yards for a first down. It's a high percentage offence but if someone misses a block, drops a pass or runs a route a yard short of the first-down marker, the drive stalls. Other than Arceneaux, the Lions do not have a quick-strike receiver who can make big plays. The Lions are eighth in offensive big plays (rushes of 20+ yards or passes of 30+ yards).
Beyond the stats, I think several factors are at the root of the problem. The offensive line has not opened holes consistently for the running game, especially on first down. Second down is almost always a passing down for the Lions, and that creates pressure to execute flawlessly. Whether by design or poor route running or poor QB reads, the Lions have not been able to involve the wide receivers in the passing game. That makes it easier for defences to clog the middle and defend the short curls and crossers to the slots. When most of your offence comes from your running back and two international slots (all of whom are injured, by the way), it's easier for defences to key on those positions. Moving the ball downfield five yards at a time requires flawless execution. Is it all on coaching, lack of talent or poor execution through lack of mental sharpness? It's probably on all three areas. Pick your scapegoat.