Who to cheer for/against?

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David
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Just listening to the Bomber radio broadcast and that weasel Chris Jones just called a challenge flag up 37-0 with a smirk on his face. Not going down well with the Bomber broadcasters. O'Shea no doubt has a long memory.

Drew Willy now out with an upper body injury. Bob Irving has one too.....a broken heart.


DH :cool:
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sj-roc
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David wrote:For whom are you cheering today - Winnipeg or Edmonton? Has the ship sailed as far as any hopes for 2nd place goes? Does a Winnipeg win provide a greater sense of urgency for the Lions? Prevent any type of complacency?


DH :cool:
I got to thinking... in the unlikely event that our upcoming game @Wpg ends in a tie, it could set up a rather complicated tiebreaker should BC & Wpg finish the season tied in 4th (and we'd both have to be 8-9-1 in this event).

We'll have not only split the three games 1-1-1, but we'd also be even in point differential since the first two games both had winning margins of 17 points. It would go to division record — right now we're 3-4 while Wpg is shaping up to be 1-6 as they currently trail Edm 40-3 in Q3.

But with only in-division games remaining, having to invoke this tiebreaker in the first place means Wpg will have also closed this other gap: we'd both be 3-6-1 in-division. So this tiebreaker also settles nothing. It would next come down to in-division point differential — which we currently lead by a rather wide -4 to -77 margin — but who knows how this will end up in four weeks if things turn around enough that this tiebreaker must be invoked in the first place?

This intrigues me because in the last Wpg game here, we had the ball deep in Wpg territory at game's end and could have kicked a FG to win by 20, but went into victory formation. It's admittedly an extremely narrow possibility but arguably — if all the chips happen to fall in all the wrong places — we could ultimately end up costing ourselves a playoff berth, just because we didn't kick that FG and set into motion (so to speak) the aforementioned bizarre turn of events.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not panicking over this or anything — like I said, it's all very, very unlikely that this would happen. Whether or not we make playoffs, our postseason fate will likely play out in a far more decisive fashion. But wouldn't it be crazy if this is how it all shook down in the end? :dizzy:
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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DanoT
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SammyGreene wrote:
David wrote:Ummm.....I don't think it much matters who you're cheering for right now. 37-0 Edmonton at half-time. :sigh:

Long time Bomber fans will no doubt be searching the record books to see if this could be the biggest half-time deficit in team history. I somehow don't expect Chris Jones to take his foot off the gas pedal in the 2nd half.



DH :cool:
What a colossal collapse by the Bombers. Well on their way to their 6th straight loss and 8th in 9 games in embarrassing fashion. O'Shea has gone from a coach of the year candidate to being put under the microscope. This performance is making last week's blowout loss to Ottawa look half decent.

On a side not there is no runaway choice as the Western MOP this season but Darian Durant is the league's MVP by simply not playing. Riders look lost without him.
You just provided the answer to the question,"Why did they change the award from MVP to MOP?"
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Rammer
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SammyGreene wrote:
David wrote:Ummm.....I don't think it much matters who you're cheering for right now. 37-0 Edmonton at half-time. :sigh:

Long time Bomber fans will no doubt be searching the record books to see if this could be the biggest half-time deficit in team history. I somehow don't expect Chris Jones to take his foot off the gas pedal in the 2nd half.



DH :cool:
What a colossal collapse by the Bombers. Well on their way to their 6th straight loss and 8th in 9 games in embarrassing fashion. O'Shea has gone from a coach of the year candidate to being put under the microscope. This performance is making last week's blowout loss to Ottawa look half decent.

On a side not there is no runaway choice as the Western MOP this season but Darian Durant is the league's MVP by simply not playing. Riders look lost without him.
MOP is down to Reilly IMO, and if they considered a defensive player for the award SolE would give him a run. Right now, it is Bowman as the runner up, but the more he gets touches down the stretch it also increases Reilly's numbers.
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Alputt
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Looking at the schedule I am a big Ottawa fan right now... They have a chance to knock any of the Eastern teams down allowing for the cross-over. Hamilton twice. Not saying it's likely, but go Burris!
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SammyGreene
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I was wondering if the Lions were going to send out info regarding playoff tickets and they finally did tonight after this weekend’s results.

Eskimos in driver’s seat for 2nd place finish but it could get very interesting if Riders sort out their QB issues and beat them at Mosiac next weekend. That would mean Lions could reel in Edmonton by winning out, including at least a 7 point victory at Commonwealth Nov 1. Stranger things have happened.

Remaining games:

Edmonton (20 pts): at Saskatchewan, bye, BC, at Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan (18 pts) : Edmonton, at Calgary, bye, Edmonton

BC (16 pts): bye, at Winnipeg, at Edmonton, Calgary

Winnipeg (12 pts): Calgary, BC, at Calgary, bye
TheLionKing
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Would be nice if the Lions get to host a playoff game but in my opinion not likely given their inconsistent play this season.
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sj-roc
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Some thoughts on playoff seeding possibilities, and everything I have to say below ignores the consequences of any remaining games ending in ties:

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

(I) Re: the crossover:

The current eastern standings (with three teams tied for first at 6-8) and the nature of the remaining schedule — with most games pitting teams against one another as they jockey for playoff berths — mean that it's mathematically impossible for the 3rd place team in the east (whomever this should prove to be) to finish above 8 wins. Since three western teams already have 9 or more wins and BC already has 8, this means one more win from among any of our three remaining games will invoke the crossover, no matter what else happens.

But note that this doesn't mean BC will necessarily be the crossover team. Even if we add one win to our record right now from our remaining games we could still finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th (or 4th if said win happens to be @Wpg) depending on how all the other games play out.

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

(II) Our chances for 2nd place in the west:

While 1st place is out of reach (4 less wins than Cgy and only 3 games left) there is a slight possibility that we finish 2nd. The interconnectedness of the schedule means the constraints are tight to get this result, and we need three things to make it happen:

(1) We MUST win out (@Wpg Oct 25, @Edm Nov 1, vsCgy Nov 7).
(2) Ssk MUST lose @Cgy on Oct 24 (this may not be immediately clear but I'll explain below).
(3) One of two other things must happen in the two remaining Edm @ Ssk games on Oct 19 and Nov 8:
(3a) Ssk MUST win them both, OR
(3b) PROVIDED that WE win by at least 7 @Edm on Nov 1, then a split of the two remaining Edm @ Ssk games is also permissible (order doesn't matter).

The logic behind all of this:

If (1), (2) and (3a) hold, then BC & Ssk finish 11-7 and Edm 10-8, all sandwiched between Cgy & Wpg. We already have the tiebreaker over Ssk on point differential in the two games that we split, so we'd take 2nd in this case, and the margin of our Nov 1 win over Edm wouldn't matter, only the win itself.

If (1), (2) and (3b) hold, then BC & Edm finish 11-7 and Ssk 10-8 (again all sandwiched between Cgy & Wpg), and we get the tiebreaker again on point differential (for 8 or more), or on div record if we win by exactly 7 on Nov 1 (6-4 vs 5-5), so once again we'd get 2nd. Winning by 6 or less (and all else the same) would give Edm the point differential tiebreaker and drop us to 3rd.

Note that if Edm, currently 10-5, sweeps both of their games @Ssk, they would finish with 12 wins and we could no longer catch them.

If Ssk beats Cgy on Oct 24, then even if we sweep our last three, it sets us up in a no-win dilemma, in terms of a 2nd place bid. Either:
(a) one of Ssk or Edm would finish ahead of us with 12 wins (depending on who sweeps the two remaining games between them) or,
(b) if they split, then it yields a three-way tie with BC, Edm, Ssk all finishing 11-7, and it would come down to head-to-head records. Ssk would be 1-1 vs BC, and 1-2 vs Edm, to put them 2-3 overall. Edm would be 1-1 vs BC, and 2-1 vs Ssk, for a 3-2 mark. Finally we'd be 1-1 against each of them to sit 2-2. So the seeding would go Edm 2nd, BC 3rd, Ssk 4th in this scenario.

I don't see any other way for us to claim 2nd, and even with an all-outcomes-being-equal POV (reality is probably worse), I would still peg our chances of this at less than 5%.

So to summarise there's only six remaining games that matter for a 2nd place bid, our own three and three others:

(1) Oct 19, Edm @ Ssk, doesn't matter who wins but will dictate necessary conditions in (4) and (6) below

(2) Oct 24, Ssk @ Cgy, Cgy MUST win or 2nd place bid is OVER

(3) Oct 25, BC @ Wpg, BC MUST win or 2nd place bid is OVER

(4) Nov 1, BC @ Edm, BC MUST win (and MUST win by 7+ if Edm win on Oct 19), or 2nd place bid is OVER

(5) Nov 7, Cgy @ BC, BC MUST win or 2nd place bid is OVER

(6) Nov 8, Edm @ Ssk:
(6a) IF Ssk won on Oct 19 AND our Nov 1 victory margin is 7+, then this game won't matter to us
(6b) IF Ssk won on Oct 19 AND our Nov 1 victory margin is 6-, then root for Ssk
(6c) IF Edm won on Oct 19 AND our Nov 1 victory margin is 7+, then root for Ssk
(6d) if none of the pre-conditions of (6a), (6b) or (6c) hold — i.e., IF Edm won on Oct 19 AND our margin of victory is 6-, then 2nd place bid is OVER.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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sj-roc
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SammyGreene wrote:I was wondering if the Lions were going to send out info regarding playoff tickets and they finally did tonight after this weekend’s results.

Eskimos in driver’s seat for 2nd place finish but it could get very interesting if Riders sort out their QB issues and beat them at Mosiac next weekend. That would mean Lions could reel in Edmonton by winning out, including at least a 7 point victory at Commonwealth Nov 1. Stranger things have happened.

Remaining games:

Edmonton (20 pts): at Saskatchewan, bye, BC, at Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan (18 pts) : Edmonton, at Calgary, bye, Edmonton

BC (16 pts): bye, at Winnipeg, at Edmonton, Calgary

Winnipeg (12 pts): Calgary, BC, at Calgary, bye
Heh, I just posted about this, too! Interesting thing is, even if Edm wins that game, they have another game @Ssk on Nov 8 and we would still catch Edm if they lose that one and (as you have said) we win out (including by 7+ @Edm). Also, Ssk could sweep those two games and then it wouldn't matter by how much we won @Edm, we could still finish ahead of them both.

BUT...

As I argued in my last post, all of it rests on Ssk losing in Cgy on Oct 24. 2nd is impossible for us if Ssk wins that one no matter what else happens, even if we win out. That game is actually MORE key to us than the first of the two upcoming Edm @ Ssk games. Nothing from that game will kill our 2nd place chances; it will only dictate future prerequisites, whereas a Cgy win in the Ssk @ Cgy matchup is crucial to keep our 2nd place hopes alive.

EDIT: I just saw the email. I wonder if they plan to release tickets to the general public before the game is actually clinched, and then give fans the option of a refund or putting it towards next year's STs if the game doesn't happen? Especially after the GWN fallout, it might smack of hubris to be selling tickets for a game that might not happen. But at the same time, it might not leave much time to sell playoff tickets if the game isn't clinched until the final day of the regular season wraps, especially for a semi-final, which always has a week's less lead time over a final in the best of circumstances. This will be an even bigger issue in the east, where a team can go from looking like they're hosting a final one week, to not even making the playoffs the next, and things could even swing between these extremes based on the last game played in their division.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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Rammer
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Thanks guys, I thought that one more win by the Lions would garauntee a West crossover happening. Listening to Jock Climie going on about it on the TSN panel, he still thinks that the Riders are falling enough to not make the crossover...that is our CFL expert. :dizzy:
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sj-roc
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Rammer wrote:Thanks guys, I thought that one more win by the Lions would garauntee a West crossover happening. Listening to Jock Climie going on about it on the TSN panel, he still thinks that the Riders are falling enough to not make the crossover...that is our CFL expert. :dizzy:
Nope, they'll be at least 4th since Wpg can't catch them sitting 3 wins behind with only as many games left and having been swept in their season series to lose that tiebreaker. And they already have more than the at most 8 wins with which the 3E team will finish. In fact the CFL standings page has already declared Ssk (and for that matter everyone else in the west above them) as having clinched a playoff berth. If I were on twitter I'd point out to him my post about this (although he himself doesn't seem to use it much).
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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SammyGreene
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sj-roc wrote:Some thoughts on playoff seeding possibilities, and everything I have to say below ignores the consequences of any remaining games ending in ties:

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

(I) Re: the crossover:

The current eastern standings (with three teams tied for first at 6-8) and the nature of the remaining schedule — with most games pitting teams against one another as they jockey for playoff berths — mean that it's mathematically impossible for the 3rd place team in the east (whomever this should prove to be) to finish above 8 wins. Since three western teams already have 9 or more wins and BC already has 8, this means one more win from among any of our three remaining games will invoke the crossover, no matter what else happens.

But note that this doesn't mean BC will necessarily be the crossover team. Even if we add one win to our record right now from our remaining games we could still finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th (or 4th if said win happens to be @Wpg) depending on how all the other games play out.

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

(II) Our chances for 2nd place in the west:

While 1st place is out of reach (4 less wins than Cgy and only 3 games left) there is a slight possibility that we finish 2nd. The interconnectedness of the schedule means the constraints are tight to get this result, and we need three things to make it happen:

(1) We MUST win out (@Wpg Oct 25, @Edm Nov 1, vsCgy Nov 7).
(2) Ssk MUST lose @Cgy on Oct 24 (this may not be immediately clear but I'll explain below).
(3) One of two other things must happen in the two remaining Edm @ Ssk games on Oct 19 and Nov 8:
(3a) Ssk MUST win them both, OR
(3b) PROVIDED that WE win by at least 7 @Edm on Nov 1, then a split of the two remaining Edm @ Ssk games is also permissible (order doesn't matter).

The logic behind all of this:

If (1), (2) and (3a) hold, then BC & Ssk finish 11-7 and Edm 10-8, all sandwiched between Cgy & Wpg. We already have the tiebreaker over Ssk on point differential in the two games that we split, so we'd take 2nd in this case, and the margin of our Nov 1 win over Edm wouldn't matter, only the win itself.

If (1), (2) and (3b) hold, then BC & Edm finish 11-7 and Ssk 10-8 (again all sandwiched between Cgy & Wpg), and we get the tiebreaker again on point differential (for 8 or more), or on div record if we win by exactly 7 on Nov 1 (6-4 vs 5-5), so once again we'd get 2nd. Winning by 6 or less (and all else the same) would give Edm the point differential tiebreaker and drop us to 3rd.

Note that if Edm, currently 10-5, sweeps both of their games @Ssk, they would finish with 12 wins and we could no longer catch them.

If Ssk beats Cgy on Oct 24, then even if we sweep our last three, it sets us up in a no-win dilemma, in terms of a 2nd place bid. Either:
(a) one of Ssk or Edm would finish ahead of us with 12 wins (depending on who sweeps the two remaining games between them) or,
(b) if they split, then it yields a three-way tie with BC, Edm, Ssk all finishing 11-7, and it would come down to head-to-head records. Ssk would be 1-1 vs BC, and 1-2 vs Edm, to put them 2-3 overall. Edm would be 1-1 vs BC, and 2-1 vs Ssk, for a 3-2 mark. Finally we'd be 1-1 against each of them to sit 2-2. So the seeding would go Edm 2nd, BC 3rd, Ssk 4th in this scenario.

I don't see any other way for us to claim 2nd, and even with an all-outcomes-being-equal POV (reality is probably worse), I would still peg our chances of this at less than 5%.

So to summarise there's only six remaining games that matter for a 2nd place bid, our own three and three others:

(1) Oct 19, Edm @ Ssk, doesn't matter who wins but will dictate necessary conditions in (4) and (6) below

(2) Oct 24, Ssk @ Cgy, Cgy MUST win or 2nd place bid is OVER

(3) Oct 25, BC @ Wpg, BC MUST win or 2nd place bid is OVER

(4) Nov 1, BC @ Edm, BC MUST win (and MUST win by 7+ if Edm win on Oct 19), or 2nd place bid is OVER

(5) Nov 7, Cgy @ BC, BC MUST win or 2nd place bid is OVER

(6) Nov 8, Edm @ Ssk:
(6a) IF Ssk won on Oct 19 AND our Nov 1 victory margin is 7+, then this game won't matter to us
(6b) IF Ssk won on Oct 19 AND our Nov 1 victory margin is 6-, then root for Ssk
(6c) IF Edm won on Oct 19 AND our Nov 1 victory margin is 7+, then root for Ssk
(6d) if none of the pre-conditions of (6a), (6b) or (6c) hold — i.e., IF Edm won on Oct 19 AND our margin of victory is 6-, then 2nd place bid is OVER.
Fantastic breakdown sj-roc. Knew there were ton of scenarios but too lazy to work them all out. Bottom line is Calgary will have a major say in how this will play out. Since they haven't clinched first yet they will be heading into Winnipeg Saturday looking to fire on all cylinders coming off the bye week with Mitchell very likely back at starting QB. Good news for the Lions.

Also can't see them rolling over in front of their own fans at McMahon on Oct. 24 against the Riders with the Western Final still a month away. Again, should be good news for the Lions. Given what happened at BC Place in their final game last year (losing two key starters) Hufnagel might take a cautious approach against the Lions on Nov. 7.

Still plenty of confusion heading into next weekend on who Lions fans should cheer for in Sunday's Eskimos/Riders tilt. If you believe there is still a realistic chance at 2nd place or like the idea of the crossover then go Riders. If you think 3rd in the West is the Lions best chance then go Eskimos. Yet the Nov. 8 rematch at Mosiac could come into play as well.

I see the league-wide pre-sale for playoff tickets, including BC, starts today, which prompted the Lions email to season ticket holders last night to avoid a lot of phone calls.
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David wrote:Ummm.....I don't think it much matters who you're cheering for right now. 37-0 Edmonton at half-time. :sigh:
Yeah, with the result being an obvious foregone conclusion we switched over to Ellen. Football in the daytime on a Monday is weird. Man, that Pink is quite the singer, huh?
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sj-roc
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SammyGreene wrote:Fantastic breakdown sj-roc. Knew there were ton of scenarios but too lazy to work them all out. Bottom line is Calgary will have a major say in how this will play out. Since they haven't clinched first yet they will be heading into Winnipeg Saturday looking to fire on all cylinders coming off the bye week with Mitchell very likely back at starting QB. Good news for the Lions.
Thanks, SammyGreene. I must admit that to get all that clear in my head, I had to map out all the possibilities with an Excel spreadsheet and even resort to using perhaps some of its lesser-known features (data filtering and built-in functions like IF, LARGE, COUNTIFS, RANK). Only then did it become fully clear to me how crucial the Ssk@Cgy Oct 24 game is to our hopes of finishing 2nd. This also made it clear that 3E will have at most 8 wins. If and when our 2nd place hopes vanish, or if an unexpected tie occurs somewhere along the way, I might try repeating the exercise to draw out conditions for our highest possible finish.

There are still plenty of possibilities in both divisions so things will be interesting to watch over the next four weeks.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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Rammer
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Lions4ever wrote:
David wrote:Ummm.....I don't think it much matters who you're cheering for right now. 37-0 Edmonton at half-time. :sigh:
Yeah, with the result being an obvious foregone conclusion we switched over to Ellen. Football in the daytime on a Monday is weird. Man, that Pink is quite the singer, huh?
I switched to some high end repo show, it captivated me. Crazy to do that for a living, but the profit is pretty good if you can fly a plane, steer a yahct, or fly a helicopter. I ended up watching a few episodes on their back to back to back Thanksgiving Monday format.
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