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notahomer
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sj-roc wrote:Thanks, SammyGreene. I must admit that to get all that clear in my head, I had to map out all the possibilities with an Excel spreadsheet and even resort to using perhaps some of its lesser-known features (data filtering and built-in functions like IF, LARGE, COUNTIFS, RANK). Only then did it become fully clear to me how crucial the Ssk@Cgy Oct 24 game is to our hopes of finishing 2nd. This also made it clear that 3E will have at most 8 wins. If and when our 2nd place hopes vanish, or if an unexpected tie occurs somewhere along the way, I might try repeating the exercise to draw out conditions for our highest possible finish.

There are still plenty of possibilities in both divisions so things will be interesting to watch over the next four weeks.

I'll echo SammyGreene's gratitude concerning the work you put in on that scenario post. I was going to guess some kind of Expresso saline drip. There is NO WAY you ate turkey, yesterday. I wouldn't have been able to read that post, let alone figure it out, with all that tryptophan in my system.... :cool: thanks again...
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ballhawk in the 'Bombers and Coach O'Shea' thread wrote:The Bombers have lost 8 of their last 9 games! Next week is the Lions' big opportunity against Winnipeg. If they win 9 games this season they are in the post-season. There is absolutely no way all 3 Eastern contenders (Hamilton, Toronto and Montreal) are all going to win 9 games this season (mathematically possible I suppose but very unlikely).
9 wins (i.e. one more win in our three remaining games) won't absolutely guarantee us a playoff berth, UNLESS said win comes against Wpg. Otherwise Wpg could sweep all three of their games (including against us), we'd both finish tied at 9-9 and Wpg would get 4th place on the head-to-head tiebreaker. But there would be a way out of this. Ssk could also finish with us at 9-9, for a 3-way tie for 3rd. How to sort this out? Ssk would be 4-1 against BC & Wpg, BC would be 2-3 against Ssk & Wpg, and Wpg would be 2-4 against BC & Ssk, so it would go Ssk 3rd; BC 4th; Wpg 5th. So that's the only way BC slips in should BC & Wpg both finish at 9-9; we'd need Ssk to fall back to us.

Also, it is not merely unlikely but indeed mathematically IMPOSSIBLE (I've worked it out, see below) for the 3E team to finish with more than 8 wins. So in summary one more win by the Lions (to go to 9 wins) will guarantee that the crossover will be invoked, but won't clinch us a playoff berth unless (a) said win comes against the Bombers (it would give us the tiebreaker but they could no longer catch us anyway), or (b) if the Bombers lose at least one more game, or (c) Ssk/BC/Wpg all finish at 9-9 and they would be ranked in this order.

I drew up a table of eastern standings possibilities based on all 2^8 = 256 possible outcomes (barring ties) of the eight relevant remaining games. I axed out most of the 256 rows on space issues.

Image

First eight columns show the remaining eastern games in sequence (away team at top of header then home). The Ws and Ls denote the result for the home team in each column header. Then in the next four columns I add the wins from these 8 games to the proper team's current total (6 each except 2 for Ott). The next four columns rank the final win totals and above the rank headers is the range of possibilities for each ranking (these ranges incorporate the full 256 rows of data, not just the ones you see here). 1st in the east will range from 8-10 wins; 2nd, 7-9; and most importantly for the crossover issue, 3rd will range from 6 to at most 8.

If 1st place shakes out to have eight wins — which would happen only if Ott gets at least two wins in its four remaining games — it would guarantee having to invoke some sort of tiebreaker in the east. There would be a tie either between 1st & 2nd, or 2nd & 3rd, or even a 3-way tie for 1st. So it's possible the east could have two teams with drastically different fates despite their identical records: one that could play in and perhaps even win the Grey Cup, while the other misses the playoffs entirely.

As it stands, no matter what happens there's a better than even chance right now (56.25% to be exact) of invoking an eastern tiebreaker to determine playoff seeds in that division.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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The 3rd place finisher (either SSK or BC) will likely be wiped out on the road by EDM in the Western Semi, and the 4th place crossover is a given. At least 1 of the top 3 Eastern teams will finish with fewer points then both BC and SSK. Even if SSK loses all of their remaining games (highly likely to happen) they will be going East and get wiped out by whatever 2nd place team they end up facing. I think BC has a better chance of winning one game (but not two games) in the East crossover.

It's will be interesting to see if CGY makes the same mistake again of playing starters (and losing them to injury) in a nothing game against BC on Nov 7th.
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sj-roc
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So with a playoff berth clinched and only three games left in the regular season to determine our seeding, we can still finish in any of 2nd, 3rd or 4th, with 3rd being the likeliest.

We finish 2nd if, and only if, all of the following occur:

• We win @Edm on Nov 1 by at least 7
• We win vCgy on Nov 7
• Ssk wins vEdm on Nov 8

We finish 4th if, and only if, all of the following occur:

• We lose both our remaining games
• Ssk wins vEdm on Nov 8

Under any other set of circumstances we finish 3rd.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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notahomer
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sj-roc wrote:So with a playoff berth clinched and only three games left in the regular season to determine our seeding, we can still finish in any of 2nd, 3rd or 4th, with 3rd being the likeliest.

We finish 2nd if, and only if, all of the following occur:

• We win @Edm on Nov 1 by at least 7
• We win vCgy on Nov 7
• Ssk wins vEdm on Nov 8

We finish 4th if, and only if, all of the following occur:

• We lose both our remaining games
• Ssk wins vEdm on Nov 8

Under any other set of circumstances we finish 3rd.
Thanks sj-roc, did you use a spreadsheet for this edition? :wink:

IIRC, the Argos won their series over the Ticats by a combined total of 2 points. Both teams won a game by a point and the Argos won the last one...
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sj-roc
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notahomer wrote:
sj-roc wrote:So with a playoff berth clinched and only three games left in the regular season to determine our seeding, we can still finish in any of 2nd, 3rd or 4th, with 3rd being the likeliest.

We finish 2nd if, and only if, all of the following occur:

• We win @Edm on Nov 1 by at least 7
• We win vCgy on Nov 7
• Ssk wins vEdm on Nov 8

We finish 4th if, and only if, all of the following occur:

• We lose both our remaining games
• Ssk wins vEdm on Nov 8

Under any other set of circumstances we finish 3rd.
Thanks sj-roc, did you use a spreadsheet for this edition? :wink:

IIRC, the Argos won their series over the Ticats by a combined total of 2 points. Both teams won a game by a point and the Argos won the last one...
In a way, yes. I drew that up a couple weeks ago (and it was rather large, over 100MB!) and updated it as each game wrapped. I suppose the remaining picture could be deduced from scratch anyway, but having done all the above and kept a record of it just meant no need to re-think everything.

Must admit I haven't given the east picture much thought other than for crossover conditions — as I mentioned about 2 wks ago the third team won't get more than eight wins so BC's win last night means it will be invoked for sure. It's quite possible (even likely) some sort tiebreaker will have to settle everything within the east. It could have gotten complicated if the last Ham/Tor game had ended in a tie to make the head-to-head 1-1-1, with what would have been an even point differential based on the two split wins by equal, one-point margins. It would go to division records and then possibly to in-division point differential and even overall point differential to settle a tie between them, should one have occurred. If that still hadn't settled it, it would go to a coin flip. Seriously. Can you imagine? Missing the playoffs on a coin flip, while the other team maybe wins the Grey Cup? It would become the ultimate tale of CFL folklore.

But with Tor having a 2-1 wins edge in H-H it's a straightforward one — as they normally are.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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With the demolition in Edmonton and lost both regular season games against them, would it be better for the Lions to finish in 3rd and revisit the Graveyard known as Commonwealth Stadium, or finish 4th and qualify as the crossover team? If the Lions finish 3rd and win in Edmonton they must then visit Calgary and I'm not so optimistic that there will be a repetition of the 1994 and 2000 playoff upset wins in Alberta this season. And while the playoff standings are being sorted out right now in the east, two of the three possible qualifying teams in the east will be playing in indoor stadiums and it would be the Lions home away from home. Or at least the Lions have beaten the Tiger-Cats, Alouettes, and Argonauts in one of the two meetings.

Problems is now that the Lions play first, and then the Roughriders. In all likelihood, the Stampeders will not be using many of their starters and it's quite possible for the Lions to pull off an upset win just like the Blue Bombers did yesterday. I guess there's no such thing as forfeiting a game to purposely lose for the sake of better playoff position.
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祝你龍年行大運。
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DanoT
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I don't think traveling east for the playoffs is very attractive and I know it doesn't matter because the Lions have shown that they have the ability and coaching to beat the Redblacks and barely beat the Bombers, the two worst teams in the CFL. Beating another team in the playoffs east or west...not very likely.
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notahomer
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DanoT wrote:I don't think traveling east for the playoffs is very attractive and I know it doesn't matter because the Lions have shown that they have the ability and coaching to beat the Redblacks and barely beat the Bombers, the two worst teams in the CFL. Beating another team in the playoffs east or west...not very likely.
If they do end up going to the Eastern division, that is one long road trip. If you win one, you might wanna just stay out there. Flying all the way back to do it again the following SUnday? :dizzy:

Besides, as noted, not very likely even if they only have to go to Alberta......
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Robbie wrote:With the demolition in Edmonton and lost both regular season games against them, would it be better for the Lions to finish in 3rd and revisit the Graveyard known as Commonwealth Stadium, or finish 4th and qualify as the crossover team? If the Lions finish 3rd and win in Edmonton they must then visit Calgary and I'm not so optimistic that there will be a repetition of the 1994 and 2000 playoff upset wins in Alberta this season. And while the playoff standings are being sorted out right now in the east, two of the three possible qualifying teams in the east will be playing in indoor stadiums and it would be the Lions home away from home. Or at least the Lions have beaten the Tiger-Cats, Alouettes, and Argonauts in one of the two meetings.

Problems is now that the Lions play first, and then the Roughriders. In all likelihood, the Stampeders will not be using many of their starters and it's quite possible for the Lions to pull off an upset win just like the Blue Bombers did yesterday. I guess there's no such thing as forfeiting a game to purposely lose for the sake of better playoff position.
I doubt CGY will make the same mistake of risking injury to starters they did in the same scenario last season. (It was interesting, though, that Mitchell played the whole game in the snow against WPG on Saturday--that was a risky scenario for no real advantage, watching everyone slipping and sliding.)

Chris Jones, on the other hand, has a reputation for not taking his foot off the gas, but he should IMO. Reilly is critical to EDM success, and they are one risky running play by him away from the whole thing falling apart.

At any rate, the East Crossover does offer a chance for BC to win one more playoff game than they will in the West.

As to the seedings over there, TOR winning over OTT means that MTL beating HAM gives them first place, resulting in MTL 1st, TOR 2nd.
TOR loss and MTL win, results in MTL 1st, HAM 2nd.
If HAM beats MTL by more than 7 points, they will be in 1st place, and MTL 2nd, no matter if TOR wins or loses.
HAM win by less than 7pts means MTL 1st, HAM 2nd. If HAM win by exactly 7points, then the next tiebreakers are

"has scored the higher net quotient of points (i.e. points scored for divided by points scored against) in all games played against all of the other tied Club(s), then,
has the higher winning percentage in all games played against all member Clubs of the Division, then,
has scored the higher net aggregate of points in games played against all member Clubs of the Division, then,
has scored the higher quotient of points in games played against all member Clubs of the Division, then,
has scored the higher net aggregate of points in games played against all member Clubs of the League, then,
has scored the higher net quotient of points in games played against all member Clubs of the League, then,
has won a coin toss against the other tied Club."
http://www.cfl.ca/page/game_rule_tiebreak
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sj-roc
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BC 1988 wrote:At any rate, the East Crossover does offer a chance for BC to win one more playoff game than they will in the West.
I don't know about that. If we cross over, we'd be facing a team that went at least 6-3, possibly 7-2 in its last nine, while we'd have gone 4-5 in the same stretch with all four of our wins coming against non-playoff teams (Ott & Wpg twice each). We haven't beaten a team that's still alive for the playoffs since Aug 17 and if the Argos end up missing then you can stretch that run of futility back one more game to Aug 8 against Hamilton. Either way, unless we beat Cgy in our last game — and they prob won't take the game lightly after losing to Wpg on Sat and not wanting to go into a playoff bye with two losses in a row — we'll have built up a three-month winless streak against playoff teams when the playoffs start on Nov 16.
As to the seedings over there, TOR winning over OTT means that MTL beating HAM gives them first place, resulting in MTL 1st, TOR 2nd.
TOR loss and MTL win, results in MTL 1st, HAM 2nd.
If HAM beats MTL by more than 7 points, they will be in 1st place, and MTL 2nd, no matter if TOR wins or loses.
HAM win by less than 7pts means MTL 1st, HAM 2nd. If HAM win by exactly 7points, then the next tiebreakers are

"has scored the higher net quotient of points (i.e. points scored for divided by points scored against) in all games played against all of the other tied Club(s), then,
has the higher winning percentage in all games played against all member Clubs of the Division, then,
has scored the higher net aggregate of points in games played against all member Clubs of the Division, then,
has scored the higher quotient of points in games played against all member Clubs of the Division, then,
has scored the higher net aggregate of points in games played against all member Clubs of the League, then,
has scored the higher net quotient of points in games played against all member Clubs of the League, then,
has won a coin toss against the other tied Club."
http://www.cfl.ca/page/game_rule_tiebreak
So let's finish the thought on what would happen in the event of a Ham win by 7pts over Mtl in the final week of the regular season.

It would tie them for first at 9-9 in the standings with a split in their season series at one win apiece, each by seven. It would then go to division record. Mtl would prevail here with a 6-2 edge over Ham's 5-3, so Ham would host the crossover team in the ESF.

For an exhaustive look at all possible outcomes in the final week of the regular season and their resulting playoff matchups, check my post here from last night.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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notahomer
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sj-roc wrote:I don't know about that. If we cross over, we'd be facing a team that went at least 6-3, possibly 7-2 in its last nine, while we'd have gone 4-5 in the same stretch with all four of our wins coming against non-playoff teams (Ott & Wpg twice each). We haven't beaten a team that's still alive for the playoffs since Aug 17 ..........
I've been on road trips to Winnepeg and Ottawa with the Lions. I went as a FAN, not a player and adjusting was a lot tougher to Ottawa. Airplanes are cramped things and the players are OBVIOUSLY very used to travelling. Still getting some of those BODIES crammed into airline seats?

I think its a no-brainer. A short flight to Alberta or a 5ish hour flight to the East. The game itself? It matters of course. THe Lions did win a crossover game one season but were beat quite easy the following week.
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sj-roc
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I guess we can now ask this question of who to cheer for/against in the different context of who you'd rather see win the Grey Cup. To be sure it's always a drag when the Lions don't make it, but at this point with this matchup I think I'd prefer to see Ham take it, if only because they've had the longer drought and for the way they were treated as basically an afterthought at last year's game in Regina, on top of the hardship they went through the last couple seasons, having to play in small, temporary facilities. Cgy will have to do a better job of containing Brandon Banks on the fast indoor track next week than Mtl did in the EF. On top of his heroics today, he scored a 97yd PR TD against us here in week 7.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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korey&dante4ever
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sj-roc wrote:I guess we can now ask this question of who to cheer for/against in the different context of who you'd rather see win the Grey Cup. To be sure it's always a drag when the Lions don't make it, but at this point with this matchup I think I'd prefer to see Ham take it, if only because they've had the longer drought and for the way they were treated as basically an afterthought at last year's game in Regina, on top of the hardship they went through the last couple seasons, having to play in small, temporary facilities. Cgy will have to do a better job of containing Brandon Banks on the fast indoor track next week than Mtl did in the EF. On top of his heroics today, he scored a 97yd PR TD against us here in week 7.
I'll be cheering for Calgary. John Hufnagel deserves another ring.

I do have $65 dollars on Hamilton at 6.5/1. Will probably hedge that.
Also have $50 dollars on Elimimian winning the MOP at 10/1. :cr: Bet was made in early October.
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sj-roc wrote:I guess we can now ask this question of who to cheer for/against in the different context of who you'd rather see win the Grey Cup. To be sure it's always a drag when the Lions don't make it, but at this point with this matchup I think I'd prefer to see Ham take it, if only because they've had the longer drought and for the way they were treated as basically an afterthought at last year's game in Regina, on top of the hardship they went through the last couple seasons, having to play in small, temporary facilities. Cgy will have to do a better job of containing Brandon Banks on the fast indoor track next week than Mtl did in the EF. On top of his heroics today, he scored a 97yd PR TD against us here in week 7.
X2
I have a soft spot for Hamilton's long-suffering fans, especially after the hardship of being without a stadium for a year and a half. I've been on the Ticats email list after attending one of the final games played at Ivor Wynne. The fans are loyal and passionate and I enjoyed the experience. I'd love to attend a game in the new stadium one of these years.

I also have fond memories of the 1999 Grey Cup between Hamilton and Calgary at B.C. Place. This should be a fun week.
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