Turnover Battles

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TheLionKing
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Posts: 25103
Joined: Sat Feb 19, 2005 10:13 pm
Location: Vancouver

Since 2001, I have been charting the turnover margin of teams in the CFL. It was an exercise to track how a turnover affected a team's win-loss percentage. I wanted to have the facts for the players and it is something I have done every season since.

Back in those days we didn't have the luxury of having a league CFL stats guru like Steve Daniel to provide us with a lot of the weekly stats, so it was up to me and an excel spreadsheet. Not my strength. Let's see how the turnover margin this season has stacked up for the League.

Each week I chart the number of turnovers, the turnover margin and whether a team wins or loses the game. So I can say how many times a team had three turnovers, or how many times they finished with a plus turnover margin. I also have how many wins or loses tied into those stats.

Let's start with the premise that each team has a 50% chance of winning each game played. Now add the turnover margin percentages and you have an indication of your ability to win or lose based on turnover margin. Let's review what Turnover Margin is defined as, it is the combination of takeaways (fumbles, turnovers on downs, interceptions) and giveaways (fumbles, turnovers on downs, interceptions) a team has in a game.

There have been eight games where a team finished with a +1 turnover margin, conversely the other team finished with a -1 turnover margin. Teams with +1 TO margin won five games and lost three for a 63% winning percentage. That is an increase of 13% from the 50% we started with. Conversely the team that lost the turnover margin has a decrease of 13% or a 37% chance of winning when finishing -1 in turnover margin.

Let's look at the stats for the season so far.



Turnover Margin

Times in 2014

Record

Winning %


+6 1 1-0 100
+4 4 4-0 100
+3 6 6-0 100
+2 11 10-1 91
+1 8 5-3 63
Even 6 3-3 50
-1 8 3-5 37
-2 11 1-10 9
-3 6 0-6 0
-4 4 0-4 0
-6 1 0-1 0

Some observations:

- Teams winning the turnover margin have a 88% winning percentage this season. (+38%)

- +3 or greater gives you a 100% winning percentage this year. (+50%)

- You will have a very hard time winning a football game with -2 or more turnover margin. You will have a 13% chance of winning.

- Teams that are losing the turnover margin are having a harder chance of winning this season because of the superb play of the defenses in the league and the lack of offensive output. You must make your opportunities with the football count with points scored.

- Hamilton is the only team to lose a game while winning the turnover margin by 2 or more.

They lost 29-36 at BC and only scored one TD in the game with a +2 margin.

- Only two teams have won games when they lost the Turnover Margin.

- The Lions have done it once and the Bombers have done it 3 times.

The Bombers have done a great job of finding ways to win football games and find other ways to score when their offense falters. They were -1 vs. Ottawa this season but had a kickoff return for a TD to help them win the game. They were -1 vs. Montreal and scored two defensive touchdowns to win the game. They were -1 vs. Hamilton this year and were able to win the game by 1 point 27-26.

As we continue to watch the season unfold, teams that continue to win the turnover margin will continue to win the football games at a high level.

http://www.tsn.ca/cfl/story/?id=460343
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Rammer
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Posts: 22320
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2002 6:04 pm
Location: Coquitlam, B.C.

Nice breakdown TLK, there are two stats that have always caught my attention, turnovers, and sacks. One gives you instant field position and the other means that you are winning the LOS on D, an important factor throughout the game.

I am going to throw out the Bomber stats on winning while still losing the turnover battle, as IIRC those have been against Montreal twice and Ottaw once. Not teams that are going to scare anybody on offense. Just lucky it was those teams, just about anyone else, they can chalk up a lose.
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