CFL 2014 Ratings/Playoff Positions at 2014 11 08

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TheLionKing
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In a head to head meeting between the West and East this year, the latter has only won two games. Unfortunately one of the victims was the BC Lions losing to the Als.
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sj-roc
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notahomer wrote:Both Schultz and Forde have TSN blogs complaining about whether we should have TWO divisions on football.......

Fordes: http://www.tsn.ca/cfl/story/?id=459015

Schultz: http://www.tsn.ca/cfl/story/?id=459115
Forde makes some very good points in his (lengthy) article in favour of abolitioning divisions and then simply ranking teams overall with the top 6 making the playoffs, as a solution to the league's chronic divisional disparity problems. There's another argument in favour that he didn't mention. Right now interdivision games never come into play for purposes of invoking tiebreakers to determine playoff seeds. But with only overall rankings, even these interdivision games could potentially gain such importance.

For example, suppose Cgy and Tor meet twice in the regular season and Cgy wins the first game 31-22. Then let's say the rematch comes in the final week of the season with Tor at 9-8 and Cgy at 10-7. Under status quo this rematch would be meaningless (in terms of jockeying between Cgy and Tor), but without divisions it means there are some stakes in that Tor has to not only merely win, but win by at least 10 points to push both teams' records to 10-8 and then be able to claim the higher seed on point differential.

Anything that can potentially raise the stakes of a game should be a positive.

The biggest barrier to addressing divisional disparity in this fashion is IMHO a psychological one. People are often naturally predisposed to resist change (look at the outcry when facebook makes some change to their user interface). East and west divisions have been around forever and we're used to having them; some fans might be uncomfortable with abolishing them, even if all the evidence in the world points to realising great benefit in doing so.

If we do abolish divisions, we would have to figure out what to do with things like the player awards and the West/East Final championship trophies. For player awards the solution would be simple to me in that every team continues to name its nominees for each award, with the change that instead of having a finalist from each division, there be three finalists culled from the entire list regardless of geography. This is a good thing as it eliminates the scenario whereby the consensus best two players nominated for an award can come from the same division and only one of them can be a finalist, pitted against a weaker contender from the other division in a rather anticlimactic final matchup. In fact, this is probably another pro-abolition argument. Interestingly, the league already follows this three-finalist format in how it confers its Coach of the Year award, an award that is not included in the regular GC week ceremony but rather deep in the middle of the off-season sometime in February or March.

For the WF/EF trophies I'm not sure how to proceed in a manner that preserves them. With a six team playoff, a reasonable format would be #6 @ #3 and #5 @ #4 with byes for #1 & #2 in the 1st week. Then in the 2nd week #1 hosts the lower-surviving seed and #2 hosts the other survivor, with the winners of these games facing off for the GC the following week. But how to assign the two trophies to the 2nd week winners? Perhaps you could rename them so that (for example) the Gaudaur trophy goes to the winner of the game hosted by #1 while the Ackles trophy goes to the other winner. Both trophies would hold nominally equal footing as the Gaudaur winner wouldn't necessarily be the higher-advancing seed. The problem is that such trophies are normally associated with a division or conference and might seem somewhat forced in this manner, although they have come to be expected as part of the penultimate playoff round of NA pro team sports.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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notahomer
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Some quirks (okay I'm exageratting) in the schedule. The BC Lions have played the most divisional games (4). Hamilton and Montreal have only played one divisional game!

The traditionalist in me wants the east/west matchup but does it make sense to have what most feel are the best two teams meeting in the game BEFORE the Grey Cup?

Most of this needs to be laid at the feet of Calvillo and his Aloettes :wink: Without their success, and the odd Argo team, the West would probably have quite a streak of Grey Cups by now. If one divison (probably the West) ever dominates the Grey Cup, I think the CFL would have to alter its format.
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WestCoastJoe
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After Week 8 ...

Wow. Western dominance.

By the numbers. 1 through 9 looks pretty good.

Did anyone check the league rules on ... I expect the top two teams in the East make the playoffs, no matter how bad their records. If not, then it could be 1,2,3 in the West. With West #4 and #5 crossing over.

We are totally in the hunt in the West. Our talent seems excellent. As mentioned, it seems the coaching levels out to an extent as the season wears on. Younger coaches adapt. Older coaches with bad habits get a gentle whispering in the ear from a GM or HC. KEEP IT SIMPLE. As simple as possible. And, conversely, as sophisticated as the players can handle.
John Madden's Team Policies: Be on time. Pay attention. Play like hell on game day.

Jimmy Johnson's Game Keys: Protect the ball. Make plays.

Walter Payton's Advice to Kids: Play hard. Play fair. Have fun.
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Rammer
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Only one cross over team from the West, it isn't going to be easy to make that cut looking at the competition level in the West. Whhoever grades out in the fourth position may have the benefit of moving into the GC on an easier route, but this hasn't been the route of success for any Western teams.
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Ballistic Bob
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Rammer wrote:Only one cross over team from the West, it isn't going to be easy to make that cut looking at the competition level in the West. Whhoever grades out in the fourth position may have the benefit of moving into the GC on an easier route, but this hasn't been the route of success for any Western teams.
Well if its according to form so far I see 2 from the West viing for the GC. Thnx BB
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WestCoastJoe
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CFL.ca Staff

Calgary Stampeders
Week 7 Ranking: 1
Water is wet, the sky is blue, Canadians are polite and the Calgary Stampeders are #1 in the CFL.ca Power Rankings. Bo Levi Mitchell's Stamps are rolling right now, and seemingly have no intention of slowing down. What's more, the Stamps offence could get a major boost in the backfield with Jon Cornish's pending return.


Edmonton Eskimos
Week 7 Ranking: 2
Much like their provincial counterparts, the Edmonton Eskimos are on a tear right now. Mike Reilly is earning some M-O-P consideration in the West, while Adarius Bowman is set to smah his career-high in both receiving yards and touchdowns. The defence has been exceptional as well, allowing just 16.4 points per-game, while conceding just 264.5 yards-per-game.


Saskatchewan Roughriders
Week 7 Ranking: 3
We asked you last week, but we need to ask you again: How good has John Chick been so far this year? Even his own teammates are in awe of what he's been able to do to this point of the season. Wearing their new CFL Signature Uniforms, the Riders held off a late push by the Alouettes and won their fourth-straight game. A crucial test against the Lions awaits in Week 9


BC Lions
Week 7 Ranking: 5
BC slots in at the four spot after putting on a fourth-quarter-clinic in Toronto on Sunday night, one that saw them rack up 20 points. Kevin Glenn moved up to eighth on the all-time passing yards list in the win, but it's very possible we see Travis Lulay back under centre against the Riders on Sunday. Does Glenn deserve to sit?


Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Week 7 Ranking: 4
The Bombers drop to five after dropping their second-straight on a rare Tuesday night matchup in Toronto. Drew Willy was good, but not great, while the offensive line had their problems once again, giving up five sacks for a second-consecutive outing. Are the Bombers simply on a mini-skid? Or are they starting to fall back down to earth?


Toronto Argonauts
Week 7 Ranking: 6
The Argos went 1-1 in their two-game week, bringing their record to 3-5 on the season. With six points, the Boatmen are still very much in control of the East. They'll look to solidify their hold on the division when they head to Edmonton, where Ricky Ray will make his second return to Commonwealth Stadium since being traded in 2012.



Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Week 7 Ranking: 7
Hamilton slots in at seven after dropping a tight one to the Stampeders for the second time this season. The Ticats will head into their bye a battered bunch, especially under centre where Dan LeFevour has joined Zach Collaros in sick bay. Should LeFevour be out for an extended period of time, does Jeremiah Masoli have what it takes to get the Ticats back in the thick of things?


Montreal Alouettes
Week 7 Ranking: 8
Alex Brink was solid, but not quite good enough to guide Montreal to a win over the Riders on Saturday night. Making his first start since 2012, Brink hooked up with seven different receivers, and certainly didn't look out of sorts leading the Als' offence. Nonetheless, it's obvious the Als need more than a change at quarterback to right their ship.


Ottawa REDBLACKS
Week 7 Ranking: 9
Things won't get any easier for Ottawa this week, as they'll welcome the Stampeders just one week after hosting the Eskimos. Do the REDBLACKS have more to offer this season? Or will the growing pains last until it's too late?
John Madden's Team Policies: Be on time. Pay attention. Play like hell on game day.

Jimmy Johnson's Game Keys: Protect the ball. Make plays.

Walter Payton's Advice to Kids: Play hard. Play fair. Have fun.
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WestCoastJoe
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Calgary ... No surprise. Excellent coaching. Excellent management. Courtesy of John Hufnagel. O :thup: D :thup:

Edmonton ... Chris Jones is the real deal. Reilly goes down. Nichols makes good. O :thup: D :thup:

Regina ... One game up on us, with a game in hand. Pretty good D.

Winnipeg ... One win more than us, in terms of a crossover spot in the playoffs.

BC ... Mediocre. Middle of the pack. Buh Buh Buh ... Benny ... Benny ... Benny ... Benny the Bluster. Wally's favoured protégé. In tough against all those guys who really earned their stripes. The personnel guys dealt us some very good cards. Benny and staff have not turned them into a winning squad.

Toronto ... Gonna take the East. I expect them to improve as they get healthier. Tough to lose both Jones and O'Shea to HC gigs.

Hamilton ... Better than their record.

Ottawa ... Starting to fade, after some good efforts.

Montreal ... Calvillo retires. The Hawkins fiasco. The Troy Smith fiasco. Hiring Tom Higgins, a good guy, with a good resume, but no fire in the belly.
John Madden's Team Policies: Be on time. Pay attention. Play like hell on game day.

Jimmy Johnson's Game Keys: Protect the ball. Make plays.

Walter Payton's Advice to Kids: Play hard. Play fair. Have fun.
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notahomer
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Paul LaPolice must have been reading BC Fans posts re: TURNOVERS :wink:

Of course, BC Fan is right to point out how much of an impact turnovers are in terms of the final score. One well made response to LaPolice's blog piece is how a team trailing will have to take bigger chances thereby being more likely to have a negative turnover margin. Good point, IMO. All seems to be such common sense but stuff happens out there regardless.....

http://www.tsn.ca/cfl/story/?id=460343
Since 2001, I have been charting the turnover margin of teams in the CFL. It was an exercise to track how a turnover affected a team's win-loss percentage. I wanted to have the facts for the players and it is something I have done every season since.

Back in those days we didn't have the luxury of having a league CFL stats guru like Steve Daniel to provide us with a lot of the weekly stats, so it was up to me and an excel spreadsheet. Not my strength. Let's see how the turnover margin this season has stacked up for the League.

Each week I chart the number of turnovers, the turnover margin and whether a team wins or loses the game. So I can say how many times a team had three turnovers, or how many times they finished with a plus turnover margin. I also have how many wins or loses tied into those stats.

Let's start with the premise that each team has a 50% chance of winning each game played. Now add the turnover margin percentages and you have an indication of your ability to win or lose based on turnover margin. Let's review what Turnover Margin is defined as, it is the combination of takeaways (fumbles, turnovers on downs, interceptions) and giveaways (fumbles, turnovers on downs, interceptions) a team has in a game.

There have been eight games where a team finished with a +1 turnover margin, conversely the other team finished with a -1 turnover margin. Teams with +1 TO margin won five games and lost three for a 63% winning percentage. That is an increase of 13% from the 50% we started with. Conversely the team that lost the turnover margin has a decrease of 13% or a 37% chance of winning when finishing -1 in turnover margin.

Let's look at the stats for the season so far.
Turnover Margin Times in 2014 Record Winning %
+6 1 1-0 100
+4 4 4-0 100
+3 6 6-0 100
+2 11 10-1 91
+1 8 5-3 63
Even 6 3-3 50
-1 8 3-5 37
-2 11 1-10 9
-3 6 0-6 0
-4 4 0-4 0
-6 1 0-1 0

Some observations:

- Teams winning the turnover margin have a 88% winning percentage this season. (+38%)

- +3 or greater gives you a 100% winning percentage this year. (+50%)

- You will have a very hard time winning a football game with -2 or more turnover margin. You will have a 13% chance of winning.

- Teams that are losing the turnover margin are having a harder chance of winning this season because of the superb play of the defenses in the league and the lack of offensive output. You must make your opportunities with the football count with points scored.

- Hamilton is the only team to lose a game while winning the turnover margin by 2 or more.

They lost 29-36 at BC and only scored one TD in the game with a +2 margin.

- Only two teams have won games when they lost the Turnover Margin.

- The Lions have done it once and the Bombers have done it 3 times.

The Bombers have done a great job of finding ways to win football games and find other ways to score when their offense falters. They were -1 vs. Ottawa this season but had a kickoff return for a TD to help them win the game. They were -1 vs. Montreal and scored two defensive touchdowns to win the game. They were -1 vs. Hamilton this year and were able to win the game by 1 point 27-26.

As we continue to watch the season unfold, teams that continue to win the turnover margin will continue to win the football games at a high level.
Paul LaPolice (TSN.CA)
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WestCoastJoe
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Thanks for that, nota. Very interesting.

BCFAN's favourite stat makes good.
John Madden's Team Policies: Be on time. Pay attention. Play like hell on game day.

Jimmy Johnson's Game Keys: Protect the ball. Make plays.

Walter Payton's Advice to Kids: Play hard. Play fair. Have fun.
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B.C.FAN
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Here are a couple more turnover stats that reflect the balance of power in the league:

The five West Division teams plus Toronto are a combined 25-0 this year when winning the turnover battle. Only the three worst East Division teams (Ottawa, Montreal and Hamilton) have managed to lose a game when winning the turnover battle. They've each done it twice.

Only three West Division teams have managed to win a game when making more turnovers: Winnipeg (3 times), Edmonton (twice) and B.C. (once, against Hamilton).
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WestCoastJoe
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Since the start of the year, the West has dominated the East. No change there. And Calgary and Edmonton have looked good from the get go. Regina seems more and more like the team that won the Cup last year. We are close to Winnipeg, with a game in hand. Gonna be a battle all year just to get into the playoffs.

Calgary. This is not a surprise. Talent. Coaching. Offence. Defence. Management.
................

Regina. Last year's champions showing good form.

Edmonton. Still going strong.
..............

Winnipeg and B.C. Will we be able to move past the Bombers? Certainly possible.
.................

Toronto and Hamilton. Eastern #1 and #2.
................

Montreal and Ottawa. Basement dwellers.
John Madden's Team Policies: Be on time. Pay attention. Play like hell on game day.

Jimmy Johnson's Game Keys: Protect the ball. Make plays.

Walter Payton's Advice to Kids: Play hard. Play fair. Have fun.
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WestCoastJoe
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Calgary ... The class of the league.

Regina ... Durant injured. But they are rolling.

Edmonton ... Can't beat the Stampeders.

B.C. ... 3rd in the East looking more promising.

Winnipeg ... Slip sliding away. But playing tough.

Toronto ... Hanging in.

Montreal ... Crompton makes good once again. With much help.

Hamilton ... Another tough loss.

Ottawa ... Finding wins tough to grasp. Let one slip away vs the Lions.
John Madden's Team Policies: Be on time. Pay attention. Play like hell on game day.

Jimmy Johnson's Game Keys: Protect the ball. Make plays.

Walter Payton's Advice to Kids: Play hard. Play fair. Have fun.
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B.C.FAN
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Ten games into the season, the Stampeders have beaten Edmonton three times but have yet to beat another West Division team. They have yet to play Saskatchewan and Winnipeg and they lost their only game against B.C. The Stamps have two games remaining against each of those rivals in their final six games. The West is still wide open.
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WestCoastJoe
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As of September 14 ...

Calgary ... Too bad about Bo. But hot headed Drew is right there to take over.

Saskatchewan ... Might continue to slide a bit without Durant.

Edmonton ... With Jones and Reilly, they are in good shape. Don't think they are the most talented team in the league.

B.C. ... Whoooo Hooooo ... Climbing up the lists. 7 and 4 is so much better than 0 and 2. Lulay/Glenn. Of course we miss Lulay. IMO He is by far the main reason we went all the way in 2011. But Kevin Glenn will be shooting for his first title. D pretty good, even if play safe. If we can crank up the run game, look out. Keep it simple, Dan.

Winnipeg ... Slip sliding. Gonna miss Willy, methinks.

Hamilton ... Finally getting rolling? Must have been painful waiting on the new stadium. Austin has built himself a couple of QBs, with help from Toronto of course.

Toronto ... Struggling. But I think Ricky Ray and Scott Milanovich will have them playoff ready.

Montreal ... Who knows? So much change. Is Crompton the guy?

Ottawa ... Better than their record, methinks.
John Madden's Team Policies: Be on time. Pay attention. Play like hell on game day.

Jimmy Johnson's Game Keys: Protect the ball. Make plays.

Walter Payton's Advice to Kids: Play hard. Play fair. Have fun.
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