CFL 2014 Ratings/Playoff Positions at 2014 11 08

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Lions4ever
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sj-roc wrote:
Lions4ever wrote:
sj-roc wrote: ...which is pretty much what I thought the whole time I was crapping on all this crossover talk. Going crossover means we must have stunk down the stretch so do we really even deserve a playoff spot in the first (fourth?) place?
Well, I was merely considering "strategy". Now I want the strategy to be getting this bedcrapping regime out of town, And, as has been chewed over previously, I think it's past time the CFL dumped the current format. I don't care about the east west thing. Give the Div champs a bye and have 3 play 6 and 4 play 5 regardless of division. Then all this crossover talk (crosstalk?) ends.
I'd go even farther than that. Just scrap the divisions, top six overall get on the dance card. Playoff format same as each NFL conference: top two get byes, 6@3 & 5@4, #1 hosts the worse survivor, #2 hosts the other, winners square off for GC.

The regular season isn't division-based: whether you're in the east or west, you play 8 games against the east, 10 against the west. So why should the playoffs be division-based? The season isn't long enough for an unbalanced schedule; you'd get too many home games against too few teams. So change the playoffs instead. East teams would have to step their game up and this chronic E/W competitive divide would start to close.

I see Edm will be starting Nichols in Ssk this Sat, which prob helps the hosts.
And Wally will go even farther than that. He's floating a one division league with 7 playoff teams. 1st place gets a bye, while 2 plays 7, 3 vs 6 and 4 vs 5 (presumably).

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JohnHenry
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I don't agree with putting all the teams into one division....for what reason? So the 5th-place western team can bump the 2nd-place eastern team out of a playoff spot, because they have one more win (but are still likely a losing team?)

Take a look at this season, with 3 eastern teams fighting it out for 2 playoff spots and the 1st-place bye. With only one division, those eastern teams would be fighting for 5th, 6th and 7th place...which hardly would drum up much excitement for the fans. The East/West Classic is the biggest sporting event in Canada each year, there is little need to change the Grey Cup format or tinker with success.
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sj-roc
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JohnHenry wrote:I don't agree with putting all the teams into one division....for what reason? So the 5th-place western team can bump the 2nd-place eastern team out of a playoff spot, because they have one more win (but are still likely a losing team?)

Take a look at this season, with 3 eastern teams fighting it out for 2 playoff spots and the 1st-place bye. With only one division, those eastern teams would be fighting for 5th, 6th and 7th place...which hardly would drum up much excitement for the fans. The East/West Classic is the biggest sporting event in Canada each year, there is little need to change the Grey Cup format or tinker with success.
But you're assuming all other things being equal, which wouldn't necessarily be true. It's like when a team's scoring drive early in Q2 stalls with goal to go, so they kick a chip shot three points instead. Then they go on to lose the game by, say, two or three points, and people will say, "Gee, they would have won that game if they'd gotten a TD there." But this assumes the rest of the game would have played out in the same fashion — which is almost certainly false. Coaches coach to the score and make decisions — e.g., whether to punt or kick a FG, whether to gamble on 3rd down when it's a long yard, whether to go for two, whether to run some sort of fake or trick play — based on current game circumstances, so by necessity it almost certainly wouldn't play out the same way.

Likewise I see a similar flaw in your argument. Eastern teams generally don't strive for regular season excellence right now to the same extent as western teams simply because they don't need to. In the east you can finish second and get a home playoff game with a comparatively mediocre record. Sometimes you can even pull off first place and get a bye. But if everybody were in the same playoff pool I think you'd see this start to change. It might take a few years but as I said in my last post above the E/W competitive imbalance would become less lopsided over time. You'd still get some years with better western teams but over time things would average out. As for the GC being the country's biggest annual sporting event, I'm not so sure the east/west angle is the main reason for this. It might have been in the past but I think times are changing.

Another thing is, right now, eastern teams are relatively poor draws in the west — certainly this is true here where games against teams like Ham & Tor regularly rank among our worst in attendance, and often by a rather significant margin. Part of the reason for this is that these teams are often less competitive than western rivals, so they don't really capture fan imagination as effectively. While winning matters, fans simply don't care as much about wins over the sad sacks. But if these eastern teams were forced to boost their competitive level as would be the case in a one-division league, I think you'd see the gate improve for these games and get closer to what western teams usually draw.

And to answer your pointed question: if 5W > 2E — which btw is NOT the case this year, and in fact has only happened once (in 1981, the first year of full interlocking) since both divisions began playing equal numbers of games 40 years ago — then I would say that YES, they deserve a playoff berth over the weaker 2E team because they're playing basically the same schedule: 10 games against western teams and eight against eastern. It's not like in other larger leagues where you always play most often within your own division and the records can't be compared as readily. Conversely I would also argue 4E > 2W means the 4E team deserves a berth (and a higher one over 2W if the current balanced schedule is being used, assuming 2W qualifies). So I'm not just being pro-west in my arguments.
Last edited by sj-roc on Tue Nov 04, 2014 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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DanoT
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sj-roc wrote:
JohnHenry wrote:I don't agree with putting all the teams into one division....for what reason? So the 5th-place western team can bump the 2nd-place eastern team out of a playoff spot, because they have one more win (but are still likely a losing team?)

Take a look at this season, with 3 eastern teams fighting it out for 2 playoff spots and the 1st-place bye. With only one division, those eastern teams would be fighting for 5th, 6th and 7th place...which hardly would drum up much excitement for the fans. The East/West Classic is the biggest sporting event in Canada each year, there is little need to change the Grey Cup format or tinker with success.
But you're assuming all other things being equal, which wouldn't necessarily be true. It's like when a team's scoring drive early in Q2 stalls with goal to go, so they kick a chip shot three points instead. Then they go on to lose the game by, say, two or three points, and people will say, "Gee, they would have won that game if they'd gotten a TD there." But this assumes the rest of the game would have played out in the same fashion — which is almost certainly false. Coaches coach to the score and make decisions — e.g., whether to punt or kick a FG, whether to gamble on 3rd down when it's a long yard, whether to go for two, whether to run some sort of fake or trick play — based on current game circumstances, so by necessity it almost certainly wouldn't play out the same way.

Likewise I see a similar flaw in your argument. Eastern teams generally don't strive for regular season excellence right now to the same extent as western teams simply because they don't need to. In the east you can finish second and get a home playoff game with a comparatively mediocre record. Sometimes you can even pull off first place and get a bye. But if everybody were in the same playoff pool I think you'd see this start to change. It might take a few years but as I said in my last post above the E/W competitive imbalance would become less lopsided over time. You'd still get some years with better western teams but over time things would average out. As for the GC being the country's biggest annual sporting event, I'm not so sure the east/west angle is the main reason for this. It might have been in the past but I think times are changing.

Another thing is, right now, eastern teams are relatively poor draws in the west — certainly this is true here where games against teams like Ham & Tor regular rank among our worst in attendance, and often by a rather significant margin. Part of the reason for this is that these teams are often less competitive than western rivals, so they don't really capture fan imagination as effectively. While winning matters, fans simply don't care as much about wins over the sad sacks. But if these eastern teams were forced to boost their competitive level as would be the case in a one-division league, I think you'd see the gate improve for these games and get closer to what western teams usually draw.

And to answer your pointed question: if 5W > 2E — which btw is NOT the case this year, and in fact has only happened once (in 1981, the first year of full interlocking) since both divisions began playing equal numbers of games 40 years ago — then I would say that YES, they deserve a playoff berth over the weaker 2E team because they're playing basically the same schedule: 10 games against western teams and eight against eastern. It's not like in other larger leagues where you always play most often within your own division and the records can't be compared as readily. Conversely I would also argue 4E > 2W means the 4E team deserves a berth (and a higher one over 2W if the current balanced schedule is being used, assuming 2W qualifies). So I'm not just being pro-west in my arguments.

Right now the schedule is weighted toward western teams playing more games against the west and eastern team playing more games against the east. From a gate/revenue point of view this system is working OK.

In a fragile gate driven league a one division schedule would be a gamble that at best would maintain current attendance levels but seems unlikely that such a change would do much to increase attendance. So why take the gamble?

Edit: Also need to add in extra travel and hotel and meal costs that a one division league would generate.
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DanoT wrote:
sj-roc wrote:Another thing is, right now, eastern teams are relatively poor draws in the west — certainly this is true here where games against teams like Ham & Tor regular rank among our worst in attendance, and often by a rather significant margin. Part of the reason for this is that these teams are often less competitive than western rivals, so they don't really capture fan imagination as effectively. While winning matters, fans simply don't care as much about wins over the sad sacks. But if these eastern teams were forced to boost their competitive level as would be the case in a one-division league, I think you'd see the gate improve for these games and get closer to what western teams usually draw.
Right now the schedule is weighted toward western teams playing more games against the west and eastern team playing more games against the east. From a gate/revenue point of view this system is working OK.

In a fragile gate driven league a one division schedule would be a gamble that at best would maintain current attendance levels but seems unlikely that such a change would do much to increase attendance. So why take the gamble?

Edit: Also need to add in extra travel and hotel and meal costs that a one division league would generate.
First I read that "From a gate/revenue point of view this system is working OK", then in the very next sentence, we have "a fragile gate driven league". So which is it? OK or fragile?

We already have a "one division schedule" as I explained and I haven't advocated any change to it so WADR your travel argument is irrelevant. And I also disagree that "eastern team(s) (are) playing more games against the east." Right now everyone plays ten games versus western teams, eight versus east REGARDLESS of your own division. It's not like it's a 12-in/6-out split for each division, not even close.

True, any given eastern team in a given year might happen to play a particular team within its division more often than any out-of-division team. But overall, eastern teams actually play MORE games out of division. I think you mean the former rather than the latter and they're not really the same thing. So as I said we really do already have a one-division schedule; what we need is a one-division playoff format to go along with it. It's shouldn't be one way for the regular season and then the other for the playoffs.

I would be more inclined to keep E/W divisions if the league could grow to ten teams, because then both divisions could be on a level playing field re: 3/5ths of each division making the playoffs, and you could more readily go to a more unbalanced schedule with EVERYONE (not just the west) having more games in-division than out. But as long as we have nine teams I'd favour one division. Like I said, I believe the perennial weakness of eastern teams — as enabled by the current playoff system — is a factor in relatively weaker attendance for western visits by these teams. To be sure, part of it is that they are not natural geographic rivals and there's nothing we can do about this. But the fact that these are generally not as competitive teams also hampers the gate IMHO.

So change the playoff system. The eastern teams will have no choice but to step their games up and as they become more competitive, they will also become relatively more attractive draws across the league — especially in the west where there's a lot more room for improvement.

Mind you, if the league actually did expand to ten teams, I think the schedule would simply go to a double round robin — with everyone playing each of nine opponents twice, one home and one away, to fill out the 18-game schedule. So the current flawed playoff system would persist with still no reason to have two divisions.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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sj-roc, I certainly FEEL you are right in terms of the East being able to get away with 'not needing' to be competitive in the same manner the now tight West divison is. Crossovers from the West were happening when we had balanced schedules with 4 teams in each division. Now that the West has the Bombers back, it's going to be even tighter, IMO.
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So there we are, middle of the pack, as we have been throughout 2013 and 2014.

Calgary is as solid as they come in the CFL.

Edmonton is fast reaching that status. Great facilities. Great fan base. Excellent coaching now.

And then the middle group: BC, Sas, Tor, Mon, Ham. Shake 'em up. Who is better this week?

Well, it seems to me that Hamilton will continue to rise with the new stadium, and with Kent Austin calling the shots.

Toronto is vulnerable. Poor facilities. Milanovich might want out.

Montreal has settled down. Popp has always been a sharp talent evaluator. Ned Flanders, Tom Higgins, has calmed the stormy waters.

Dunno about Saskatchewan. One would not think the absence of Darian Durant should make that much difference.

Winnipeg. Gotta think O'Shea will be fine.
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Ratings headings into the playoffs.

1 Calgary. Nothing to play for, but they dispatched the Lions with relative ease. Vanilla was all they needed. Hufnagel, Dickenson, Stubler. Say no more.

2 Edmonton. Nasty team on the rise. Chris Jones on board.

3 Hamilton. Austin finishes about where some, including myself, expect them to finish. Kent Austin on board.

4 Montreal. Ned Flanders makes good. Higgins settles the team down. He gets them focused.

5 Saskatchewan. Playoff ready? Not afraid of the big bad Eskimos?

6 B.C. Squeaked into the playoffs. Laid another egg versus the Stampedfers. Not much pride in the Den. Slip sliding down the slope. Anything is possible in the playoffs. But IMO that would almost seem like a con job on the fans. We hardly deserve to be there, it seems to me. And this is not on the players, IMO, but on the staff, particularly Mike Benevides and his mentor, Wally Buono, who has tried to assert himself into the picture more to rigtht the ship. But he can't erase the hiring mistake at this time, or maybe even later.

7 Toronto. I put them ahead of us, but we snuck in the backdoor into the East.

8 Winnipeg.

9 Ottawa.
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dupsdell1
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Lions Off to Montreal what a joke , even if the lions do squeak into the grey cup as eastern division champs I have no interest. I still think the east should be the east and the west should be the west the lions should not have made the playoffs that is why I have no interest.
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dupsdell1 wrote:Lions Off to Montreal what a joke , even if the lions do squeak into the grey cup as eastern division champs I have no interest. I still think the east should be the east and the west should be the west the lions should not have made the playoffs that is why I have no interest.
Between the way BC faded down the stretch and the way Tor improved over the same frame, the crossover — although it has been a sure thing for the last couple weeks — came rather close in the end to not being invoked at all. In fact once it had been mathematically clinched it seemed pretty much everything subsequent that might have otherwise helped prevent it from happened went the east's way, with BC at 9-9 finishing just ahead of Tor at 8-10.

Ham eked out a narrow 1pt 13-12 Labour Day win over Tor. Consider what would have happened if the score had gone the other way round for a 13-12 Tor win. Ham would have landed in 3rd at 8-10 and missed the playoffs at BC's expense. So those two points were the difference in Ham finishing first to host the Eastern Final, and finishing 3rd to miss the playoffs altogether. Tor for its part would have finished at 9-9 in a tie with Mtl, with Mtl taking 1st having won two of three in the head-to-head. So you could argue that the closest of winning margins in that one game ended up dictating the fates of all three eastern contenders.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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BC 1988
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sj-roc wrote:Between the way BC faded down the stretch and the way Tor improved over the same frame, the crossover — although it has been a sure thing for the last couple weeks — came rather close in the end to not being invoked at all. In fact once it had been mathematically clinched it seemed pretty much everything subsequent that might have otherwise helped prevent it from happened went the east's way, with BC at 9-9 finishing just ahead of Tor at 8-10.

Ham eked out a narrow 1pt 13-12 Labour Day win over Tor. Consider what would have happened if the score had gone the other way round for a 13-12 Tor win. Ham would have landed in 3rd at 8-10 and missed the playoffs at BC's expense. So those two points were the difference in Ham finishing first to host the Eastern Final, and finishing 3rd to miss the playoffs altogether. Tor for its part would have finished at 9-9 in a tie with Mtl, with Mtl taking 1st having won two of three in the head-to-head. So you could argue that the closest of winning margins in that one game ended up dictating the fates of all three eastern contenders.
You found what turned out to be the pivotal result, back on the traditional Labour Day matchup of HAM-TOR.
I was surprised how flat MTL came out yesterday, with all their starters playing for the bye and to host the Eastern Final.
Let's see how they do against BC.
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dupsdell1 wrote:Lions Off to Montreal what a joke , even if the lions do squeak into the grey cup as eastern division champs I have no interest. I still think the east should be the east and the west should be the west the lions should not have made the playoffs that is why I have no interest.
Who cares about that East West thing? While I have every confidence the Lions will continue to crap the bed next week and not get out of the "east", I think it's an outdated concept that should be discarded. No one cared that two western teams played for the Super Bowl. No one would care if it is two teams from the south in the National Championship game. Also, get rid of the points system. It's old fashioned. Just go with the win/loss percentage.
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sj-roc
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BC 1988 wrote:
sj-roc wrote:Between the way BC faded down the stretch and the way Tor improved over the same frame, the crossover — although it has been a sure thing for the last couple weeks — came rather close in the end to not being invoked at all. In fact once it had been mathematically clinched it seemed pretty much everything subsequent that might have otherwise helped prevent it from happened went the east's way, with BC at 9-9 finishing just ahead of Tor at 8-10.

Ham eked out a narrow 1pt 13-12 Labour Day win over Tor. Consider what would have happened if the score had gone the other way round for a 13-12 Tor win. Ham would have landed in 3rd at 8-10 and missed the playoffs at BC's expense. So those two points were the difference in Ham finishing first to host the Eastern Final, and finishing 3rd to miss the playoffs altogether. Tor for its part would have finished at 9-9 in a tie with Mtl, with Mtl taking 1st having won two of three in the head-to-head. So you could argue that the closest of winning margins in that one game ended up dictating the fates of all three eastern contenders.
You found what turned out to be the pivotal result, back on the traditional Labour Day matchup of HAM-TOR.
I was surprised how flat MTL came out yesterday, with all their starters playing for the bye and to host the Eastern Final.
Let's see how they do against BC.
It turns out the fine line that dictated the regular season outcomes for Ham & Tor was even finer that I'd indicated above. Had it even just been a tie instead of a hypothetical 1pt Argo win, it would have yielded the exact same effect of the eastern placings as said Argo win: Mtl/Tor/Ham going 1/2/3 instead of Ham/Mtl/Tor as was the case. An extra Tor rouge somewhere, anywhere in that LD game would have made all the difference (assuming it remained a tie through OT) in how things shook out.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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sj-roc
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According to some tweets from Rob Vanstone last night, only four teams have ever won the Grey Cup after losing their last two regular season games:

1971 Cgy
1976 Ott
1978 Edm
1988 Wpg

In 1971, Tor also lost their last two reg season games so one way or the other it would have happened that year anyway. 1988 Wpg was the only GC champion to lose its last three regular season games.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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I wonder what the record is — among teams making the playoffs — for the longest streak of winless games against other playoff teams to finish the season. We've built up a pretty decent 0-5 resume:

Fri Nov 07: Cgy 33 BC 16
Sat Nov 01: Edm 37 BC 3
Sat Oct 04: Ham 19 BC 17
Sat Sep 27: Cgy 14 BC 7
Sun Aug 24: Ssk 20 BC 16

(home teams in bold)

Our last win against a playoff team was at home on Fri Aug 08 over Ham by a 36-29 score. We were 4-2 in games against eventual playoff teams to that point — opened the season with losses to Edm (home) and Mtl (road), then won four in a row against Ssk (road), Mtl (home), Cgy (road), Ham (home) in that order — but lost our final five such decisions of 2014 as per above, to close out 2014 at 4-7 on this statistic: 2-3 at home, 2-4 on the road.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
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