CFL Playoff Games -- November 23, 2014

[sj-roc]

The kick return TD to open the second half proves to be the turning point.

According to sj-roc's scenario, the Lions can still finish second by winning their three remaining games, if they beat Edmonton by 7 points or more on Nov. 1 and Edmonton loses to Saskatchewan on the final weekend of the season. Third place and a semi-final meeting with the Esks in Edmonton on Nov. 16 looks more likely.

Need all that PLUS Cgy win over Ssk on Oct 24, to avoid an Edm/BC/Ssk 3-way tie which would break in that order on head-to-head (Edm 3-2, BC 2-2, Ssk 2-3). But the Oct 24 result looks perhaps the easiest part of the bargain for us. I agree it's looking most likely to be 3W and a trip to Edm, esp since we own the tiebreaker on Ssk. But that's not so bad for us; our last playoff game there (2000 WSF) ultimately had a happy ending.

Historically we've never really been a 2nd place team (just twice in 60, perhaps now 61 seasons).

[Rammer]

The kick return TD to open the second half proves to be the turning point.

According to sj-roc's scenario, the Lions can still finish second by winning their three remaining games, if they beat Edmonton by 7 points or more on Nov. 1 and Edmonton loses to Saskatchewan on the final weekend of the season. Third place and a semi-final meeting with the Esks in Edmonton on Nov. 16 looks more likely.

Need all that PLUS Cgy win over Ssk on Oct 24, to avoid an Edm/BC/Ssk 3-way tie which would break in that order on head-to-head (Edm 3-2, BC 2-2, Ssk 2-3). But the Oct 24 result looks perhaps the easiest part of the bargain for us. I agree it's looking most likely to be 3W and a trip to Edm, esp since we own the tiebreaker on Ssk. But that's not so bad for us; our last playoff game there (2000 WSF) ultimately had a happy ending.

Historically we've never really been a 2nd place team (just twice in 60, perhaps now 61 seasons).

Plus if the Lions D can do the bend but don't break against the Esks, I like their chances vs Hugh O'Neill's leg.

[SammyGreene]

The wild and crazy CFL. Technically the Lions are still 4th but the only team left that can still catch Edmonton for 2nd as acknowledged by TSN. I do think a win next week in Winnipeg will go a long way towards locking up at least 3rd as I expect the Stamps to roll over here on Nov 7 for at least half a game.

[Rammer]

The wild and crazy CFL. Technically the Lions are still 4th but the only team left that can still catch Edmonton for 2nd as acknowledged by TSN. I do think a win next week in Winnipeg will go a long way towards locking up at least 3rd as I expect the Stamps to roll over here on Nov 7 for at least half a game.

I am not sure on that, there was some talk of at least one GM not really looking forward to the Lions in any playoff game. That could easily be Hufnagel and if he head a chance to send the Lions East, he might choose to win that battle now vs later.

[sj-roc]

The wild and crazy CFL. Technically the Lions are still 4th but the only team left that can still catch Edmonton for 2nd as acknowledged by TSN. I do think a win next week in Winnipeg will go a long way towards locking up at least 3rd as I expect the Stamps to roll over here on Nov 7 for at least half a game.

I am not sure on that, there was some talk of at least one GM not really looking forward to the Lions in any playoff game. That could easily be Hufnagel and if he head a chance to send the Lions East, he might choose to win that battle now vs later.

I'm less enamoured than ever with a Lions crossover. No crossover team has ever secured more than one out-of-division win and the east has come on of late. After a horrific 3-26 start to interdivision play, they closed 9-2 in their final 11. The long travel with a 3hr time diff and playing at 10amPT (AFAIK) to their body clocks won't help, either.

The Lions have NEVER won a Grey Cup with divisional playoff travel farther east than Alberta.

In 1964 we had a bye to a best-of-three WF against Cgy with the first of those games played there and the other two here. After this all of our GC wins came with the single-game sudden-death playoff format.

In 1985 we had a bye to the WF and beat Wpg @BCP.

In 1994 we finished 3rd with a WSF win @Edm and a WF win @Cgy.

In 2000 we repeated the 1994 WSF & WF results.

In 2006 we had a bye to the WF and beat Ssk @BCP.

In 2011 we had a bye to the WF and beat Edm @BCP.

[TheLionKing]

I'll be happy if the Lions just make the playoffs.

[SammyGreene]

The wild and crazy CFL. Technically the Lions are still 4th but the only team left that can still catch Edmonton for 2nd as acknowledged by TSN. I do think a win next week in Winnipeg will go a long way towards locking up at least 3rd as I expect the Stamps to roll over here on Nov 7 for at least half a game.

I am not sure on that, there was some talk of at least one GM not really looking forward to the Lions in any playoff game. That could easily be Hufnagel and if he head a chance to send the Lions East, he might choose to win that battle now vs later.

You might be right Rammer. Wouldn't mind seeing the Stamps bringing their "A" game to BC Place as one final test before the playoffs. Just glad the bye week is finally over. Two in one season is too much, especially at this time of the year. It's bad enough waiting every 7 days or so for your team to play.

[DanoT]

After watching the Als D handle the Argos, I no longer want the Lions to cross over.

[Lions4ever]

The wild and crazy CFL. Technically the Lions are still 4th but the only team left that can still catch Edmonton for 2nd as acknowledged by TSN. I do think a win next week in Winnipeg will go a long way towards locking up at least 3rd as I expect the Stamps to roll over here on Nov 7 for at least half a game.

Who would want the Lions to come 3rd and have to go to Edm & Cgy on the road when a trip thru the East would prolly be a whole lot more doable?

I'll be really ticked if they screw this up now and come 3rd.

I realize now that I post like I'm always on twitter

[Rammer]

The wild and crazy CFL. Technically the Lions are still 4th but the only team left that can still catch Edmonton for 2nd as acknowledged by TSN. I do think a win next week in Winnipeg will go a long way towards locking up at least 3rd as I expect the Stamps to roll over here on Nov 7 for at least half a game.

Who would want the Lions to come 3rd and have to go to Edm & Cgy on the road when a trip thru the East would prolly be a whole lot more doable?

I'll be really ticked if they screw this up now and come 3rd.

I realize now that I post like I'm always on twitter

The West 3rd place team will likely have to play Edmonton and Calgary in that order in their stadium. True it doesn't look like the better avenue for the Lions and the East even with their late season resurgence, is the better route. Problem is that the Riders are doing better at shooting for 4th, I can't see this unfolding any other way.

[sj-roc]

The wild and crazy CFL. Technically the Lions are still 4th but the only team left that can still catch Edmonton for 2nd as acknowledged by TSN. I do think a win next week in Winnipeg will go a long way towards locking up at least 3rd as I expect the Stamps to roll over here on Nov 7 for at least half a game.

Who would want the Lions to come 3rd and have to go to Edm & Cgy on the road when a trip thru the East would prolly be a whole lot more doable?

I'll be really ticked if they screw this up now and come 3rd.

I realize now that I post like I'm always on twitter

Since our 2011 GC win, we're 3-6 in our last 9 regular season visits to the three contending eastern teams.

If that's more doable than staying in the west then we don't even deserve a berth.

Also as I mentioned in a previous post, distant travel for divisional playoffs has never been a Lions recipe for Grey Cup success. We've never won it all except when our divisional travels (when necessary) were confined to Alberta.

[B.C.FAN]

Just win, baby, and the rest will take care of itself. A home playoff game would be ideal but that's somewhat out of the Lions' hands. I don't think the Lions should fear playing Edmonton and Calgary in the playoffs, other than the weather they're likely to encounter in those cities. Bad weather is also possible in Hamilton or Montreal, and the chances of winning back-to-back 10 a.m. games (Pacific Time) after crossing three times zones are slim at best.

[sj-roc]

Just win, baby, and the rest will take care of itself. A home playoff game would be ideal but that's somewhat out of the Lions' hands. I don't think the Lions should fear playing Edmonton and Calgary in the playoffs, other than the weather they're likely to encounter in those cities. Bad weather is also possible in Hamilton or Montreal, and the chances of winning back-to-back 10 a.m. games (Pacific Time) after crossing three times zones are slim at best.

Exactly, I just don't get why anyone's so eager for anything out east.

• The games are in the morning our time.

• We've never fared well with the crossover. In 1997 Pringle had over 200yds on us. The final score wasn't that lopsided but it was like 35-5 at half. We also got smoked there in the 2009 EF.

• Don't be fooled by the W > E interdivision record. Yeah it ended up 28-12 but the east was 9-2 in their last 11 with lowly Ott accounting for the two losses. Speaking of Ott, how did that visit go?

• We're 3-6 in our last nine regular season visits to Ham/Tor/Mtl dating back through 2012 (75-78 combined opponents' record). Over the same timeframe we've been 4-2 in Alberta (61-42 COR).

• We've never won a Grey Cup playing divisional playoff games anywhere but here or Alberta. This is starting to set up like 1994 with the GC back here after the SF & F.

So yeah, let's just go ahead and book that eastern flight, PRONTO!!!!!!!

[SammyGreene]

Injury update from Winnipeg Free Press: Willy will start.

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers quarterback depth chart will be juggled again this week for Saturday’s matchup against the B.C. Lions.
The Bombers will turn the controls of the offence back to Drew Willy – who had started 15 of the first 16 games before a hand injury kept him from last Saturday’s loss to the Calgary Stampeders.
Head coach Mike O’Shea said that Willy threw Monday and also confirmed what was feared Saturday night: Brian Brohm, who started the Calgary loss, suffered a broken thumb when banging his throwing hand off Stampeder defender Juwan Simpson’s helmet. The injury required surgery, effectively ending Brohm’s season.
That means Willy will start and be backed up by Robert Marve and Josh Portis.
"Drew looks good. He threw today," said O’Shea. "It’s getting better and better."
O’Shea said SB Nick Moore and DB Demond Washington were scheduled to see the doctor on Monday after suffering injuries in Saturday’s loss, the Bombers seventh straight.

Weather shouldn't be a factor. Forecast is sunny and a high of 14C low 3C

[sj-roc]

Just win, baby, and the rest will take care of itself. A home playoff game would be ideal but that's somewhat out of the Lions' hands. I don't think the Lions should fear playing Edmonton and Calgary in the playoffs, other than the weather they're likely to encounter in those cities. Bad weather is also possible in Hamilton or Montreal, and the chances of winning back-to-back 10 a.m. games (Pacific Time) after crossing three times zones are slim at best.

One other point: Ssk is a good bet to lose its last two @Cgy & vEdm, which would give them a 9-9 finish. Which means in order for us to finish 4th and cross over we'd have to out-suck them by going winless in our last three. Not only would this put us in some slight jeopardy of missing the playoffs entirely should Wpg manage to pull off wins against not just us but also @Cgy on Nov 1, but is that the wave we want to be riding into the playoffs? Wrapping a Grey Cup-hosting season 1-6 in our last seven with our only win coming at home against a non-playoff team?

Gawd, I swear I've seen that movie somewhere before, I just can't place it.